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Originally Posted By: Gary
In 9 months time there simply won't be any of this shit going on. Unless of course, there is some other major disaster here, the chances of which are the same as they were a month ago before any of this happened, and probably not too different to what they are anywhere else.


Good to hear we have a real expert on these matters in our midst!
Glad to hear the Fukushima thing will be cleaned up good. Can you tell us what happens, I'm sure everyone wants to hear the good news.

You can think what you want, mate.
I'll think what I want, as will everyone else.
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Originally Posted By: Gary
In 9 months time there simply won't be any of this shit going on. Unless of course, there is some other major disaster here, the chances of which are the same as they were a month ago before any of this happened, and probably not too different to what they are anywhere else.


Well, Gary, are you an expert on such things?

From what I gather the data is still being poured over but there seems to be a general thinking that the stresses released by this mega event off Tohoku will have transferred more pressures onto more southern ie. closer to Tokyo and southern areas, thereby increasing the chances of the long overdue biggie going off.

The event in Tohoku also very probably pushed the northern Nagano/Niigata earthquake into breaking the day after on the 12th. That knocked out ski lifts and gondolas at Nozawa and destroyed houses and buildings in Sakae and Tsunan. If it weren't for the mad stuff going on in Tohoku, that in itself would have got a fair bit of news.

Then we had a shindo 6 in Shizuoka.

Seismologists seem to be saying we are entering a very active period in many regions of Japan, not just north east Tohoku.

If you're interested, a few areas that have been getting quite regular shakes over the last few weeks, apart from the aftershocks of the northern Nagano one on the 12th, are around Nikko and to the west in Tochigi and around Hida in Gifu/Nagano border. Those two areas were quiet before two weeks ago.

That's not being alarmist, it's just what the eggheads are saying and the reality of the situation.

I must admit I feel uneasy about the whole situation and want it all to go away! sadface
Lots of my friends are in the skijo/hotel business in this area and they are trying to be positive of course but all very worried.
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Originally Posted By: -20.7
Originally Posted By: TJ OZ
Pretty much how it was in Hakuba 8 years ago although the Japanese are into it a lot more now.


We still haven't had an explanation of what 'Hakuba 8 years ago' is about.....


There doesn't seem to be a convenient response to that one unfortunately, -20.7.
Though it may well be being dreamt up right now!
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The Fukushima thing is a mess and will likely go on for a while, but it is no Chernobyl as it is being made out to be in the western media. I imagine they will continue cooling the reactors and eventually be able to clean up and begin the process of decommission in the coming months. I think the local area - a few tens of miles from the plant will be strongly affected - especially farmers and so on. Most of Japans ski areas are well away from the NPP though. As I said in my earlier post, I can understand people holding out while they get things under control there.

As for earthquakes, I was also reading some stuff about the affect of the sendai quake on the chances of the big tokyo quake happening - they said the chances hadnt decreased and if anything had increased a little, but it really is very complex. The fact is, it is all largely speculation - a few percent here and there. Japan is an earthquake prone country, as are many other skiing or holiday destinations. There was a killer earthquake in Niigata a few years ago, Kobe a few years before that. If you dont want to come here then fair enough, but I think to write off this entire country as a holiday destination in 9 months time purely because of what has happened recently is a knee-jerk, premature reaction. Perhaps if you really had to make a decision on next years ski trip in the next month or so, I could understand it.

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Originally Posted By: Gary
If you dont want to come here then fair enough, but I think to write off this entire country as a holiday destination in 9 months time purely because of what has happened recently is a knee-jerk, premature reaction.


Yeah you said that about 4 times already. yawn
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Originally Posted By: window-cleaner
Originally Posted By: Gary
If you dont want to come here then fair enough, but I think to write off this entire country as a holiday destination in 9 months time purely because of what has happened recently is a knee-jerk, premature reaction.


Yeah you said that about 4 times already. yawn


You seem to be quite a broke record in this subject too... yawn yawn
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People are going to react differently and in their own ways aren't they. Who's to call them wrong or stupid if they decide they are not keen on going somewhere for whatever reason? I find it curious how/why some people stubbornly don't seem to be able to accept that.

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Originally Posted By: Black Mountain
Originally Posted By: window-cleaner
Originally Posted By: Gary
If you dont want to come here then fair enough, but I think to write off this entire country as a holiday destination in 9 months time purely because of what has happened recently is a knee-jerk, premature reaction.


Yeah you said that about 4 times already. yawn


You seem to be quite a broke record in this subject too... yawn yawn


Great post.

He's the one telling me I am wrong and I'm responding to that.
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I think and hope it will all calm down asap.

 

But right now at this moment there ain't many people thinking that Japan is a great destination here in the UK where I am. Been here a week now so I think I'm qualified to say what the thinking is of 'mr average'.

 

Quote:
The Fukushima thing is a mess and will likely go on for a while, but it is no Chernobyl as it is being made out to be in the western media.

 

But... but... but... westerners in western countries read and consume the western media.

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I would guess it's just too soon to know how much things will be affected with the masses (ie. none hardcore crowd). Fingers crossed for positive news soon.

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My original post here was reflecting on peoples ability to make accurate judgements about levels of risk and how those judgements are affected by immediate events. It wasn't directed at anyone in particular, and if anything it was just a reflection on a natural human response. Although it is a natural human response, it does not however, mean that it is the best response.

Unfortunately, instead of getting some insight from people who decided they wont be coming on how they came to their decision, whether or not people can make accurate risk assessments in the face of extreme events etc. all I got was "EARTHQUAKE-FUKUSHIMA-NUCLEAR-JAPAN - IM NOT COMING AND THATS IT. YOU'RE BORING!"....

Well, thanks for that - I feel so much more knowledgeable now after this enlightening discussion.

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UK, main media news. We just get short blasts now but it just seems to get worse and worse unfortunately. On about plutonium today and things getting 'more difficult' rather than easier and raditation from Fukushima spotted in Europe.

 

Just saying what's on the news just now that UK people are listening to, so don't jump down my throat.

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Here's some fine reporting to get hot and bothered about:

 

Japan on 'maximum' radiation alert as poison particles reach GLASGOW

 

Japan was today put on maximum radiation alert as it emerged particles from the country's stricken nuclear power plant have reached as far as Glasgow.

 

Prime Minister Naoto Kan told parliament that Japan was grappling with its worst problems since the Second World War.

 

'This quake, tsunami and the nuclear accident are the biggest crises for Japan' in decades, Kan said.

 

He warned the crises remained unpredictable, but added: 'From now on, we will continue to handle it in a state of maximum alert.'

 

Meanwhile, experts monitoring radiation levels more than 5,500 miles away in Glasgow said that they had detected particles of radioactive iodine, according to the Glasgow Evening Times.

 

In Japan, hundreds of pregnant women are fleeing at risk areas over fears that radiation from the Fukushima nuclear plant will harm their unborn babies.

It comes as radioactive water and plutonium-contaminated soil were found outside the plant on Japan's tsunami-hit north-east coast where brave workers are battling to stop a meltdown.

 

More than 150 women from the north-east coast have travelled over 450 miles from the crippled power station to check into hospitals in Osaka to give birth in a safer place.

At least 58 women have fled Tokyo - 150 miles south of Fukushima - following the discovery of high levels of radioactive iodine in the city’s water supply.

 

So many are arriving in Osaka that hospital bosses fear they might not have enough staff to cope.

 

-----

 

COMMENTS:

 

Wouldn't be surprised is this was just another story from as a cover to account for the ever rising levels of radioactivy. It is far worse than we are being told.

 

The time will come when they simply have to nuke the site in order to evaporate 17000 tons of critical mass.

 

Who ever approved a nuclear power station in a major earth quake zone should beheld to account!!!! The fact that there is more than one built in a known earth quake zone is pretty terrifing!!! Shut them down now, before another earth quake strikes!!

 

Did anyone actually think Japan was telling the truth ??

 

When will they (TEPCO, and other operators like EDF etc) admit and apologise for all the other mistakes and fake documents they produced? I'm sure we haven't heard everything yet.

 

Only humans would be stupid enough to build a nuclear power station in a major earthquake zone!

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Geologists warn another earthquake could tear Tokyo in two after weakening of fault line below capital

 

Geologists have warned that another powerful earthquake could inflict terrible damage on Tokyo because the Size 9 monster which struck on March 11 has altered the earth's surface.

The quake has put pressure on the fault lines near the Japanese capital and experts have suggested that a size 7.5 magnitude earthquake could hit.

The structure of the tectonic plates and fault lines around the city makes it unlikely that Tokyo, home to 13million people, would be hit by a quake anywhere near the intensity of the one 10 days ago, said Roger Musson of the British Geological Survey.

 

That added strain could now trigger a strong, deadly aftershock on Tokyo's doorstep.

It's a common occurrence after strong quakes and happened after the 2004 mega-earthquake and tsunami off Indonesia that killed 230,000 people in a dozen nations.

Three months later, an 8.6-magnitude quake erupted farther down the fault line, killing 1,000 people on sparsely populated Nias island.

 

COMMENTS:

 

 

If this is true, why aren't people being evacuated immediately as a precautionary measure?!

 

Soon you would be able to buy an apartment in Tokyo with the change in your pocket.

 

Tokyo is about half way between the quake epicentres of Sendai and Kobe so the faults close to Tokyo Bay will now be under huge stress and a major quake here is virtually guaranteed in the next 20 years or so. Three huge cities border the bay - Yokohama, Tokyo and Chiba, but the bay entrance is relatively narrow so a tsunami should not pose a such a serious danger here as the one that has just devastated much of the eastern coast of Honshu.

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If only it were a simple matter of the earthquake. The problem moving forward for inbound tourism is radiation, and the problems at the nuclear plant aren't going to be solved soon. Every time a story comes out about the nuclear disaster, folks are rightly alarmed and also reminded of the earthquake. It won't recede into memory anything like as easily as other earthquakes, such as those that hit Christchurch. Tourism to NZ will be much less affected than tourism to Japan.

 

One of my old flatmates died in Christchurch, so this is not meant to belittle what happened there.

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