BagOfCrisps 24 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 snowdude, pie-eater --- any more insights? Link to post Share on other sites
BagOfCrisps 24 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Obviously I missed this one! http://www.snowjapanforums.com/index.php/topic/22059-snow-dudes-climate-report/ Link to post Share on other sites
Slippery Jim 65 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Traditionally in an "El Nino" year Tokyo gets a lot more snow than normal Given that Tokyo gets very little snow except maybe well out in the Okutama area, I doubt Nino/Nina have much effect. What snow Tokyo does get tends to come in very late winter and melt away in 12 C sunshine the following day. Link to post Share on other sites
beowulf 1 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Traditionally in an "El Nino" year Tokyo gets a lot more snow than normal Given that Tokyo gets very little snow except maybe well out in the Okutama area, I doubt Nino/Nina have much effect. What snow Tokyo does get tends to come in very late winter and melt away in 12 C sunshine the following day. Absolutely, Tokyo does not get that much snow, but I was thinking of ski resorts closer to Tokyo that might get a bit more snow because of "El Nino". The reason why Tokyo gets more snow in an "El Nino" year is due to the warm ocean water south of Tokyo caused by "El Nino". They were saying on NHK the other night that the snowfall misses Kansai, but hits Kanto, due to the currents or something. As I say I am an amateur weather watcher, with a lot of emphasis on the "amateur". I just hope it snow like the last two years, but I do not think it will. Link to post Share on other sites
HighlyTrainedNovaTeacher 2 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Link to post Share on other sites
pie-eater 207 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Still consulting my charts and thinking it through Link to post Share on other sites
Chriselle 158 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Must........stop......staring......at .....Beowulf's..............avatar...... Link to post Share on other sites
mina2 6 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Does Tokyo getting more snow = Gunma getting more snow though? Link to post Share on other sites
Slippery Jim 65 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 If Tokyo had snow in Dec/Jan/Feb it would probably mean more snow than normal in the Gunma ski areas, as that would be storms strong enough to still be dumping well after they've pushed over the mountains from the Japan Sea side. Tokyo snow in March -- the usual case -- wouldn't mean much as it's just warm wet air moving up from the south east and butting into some cold air spilling down from the mountains. (That's what I understand from weather-knowledgeable folks) Link to post Share on other sites
BoredRider 2 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Traditionally in an "El Nino" year Tokyo gets a lot more snow than normal Given that Tokyo gets very little snow except maybe well out in the Okutama area, I doubt Nino/Nina have much effect. What snow Tokyo does get tends to come in very late winter and melt away in 12 C sunshine the following day. The snow in Tokyo doesn't seem to melt quick enough to stop the comical amount of car accidents the following morning though... Link to post Share on other sites
Slippery Jim 65 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 True enough! Taxi driver once told me his company sends home all the drivers from southern Kyushu & Shikoku when it snows here, to save wear and tear on the vehicles. Link to post Share on other sites
BoredRider 2 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Classic! Link to post Share on other sites
skidaisuki 0 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Who cares whether it snows more in Tokyo or not? I never ski in Tokyo... I have no idea what this winter holds, but I do see that this thread has turned into a debate on climate change rather than the specific predictions that I always enjoy thinking about at this time of year. Snowdude's prediction is completely unsubstantiated and if it happens to agree with what the Met Office is saying, then that's mere coincidence and nothing to do with practical observations. At times, most Japanese resorts will be epic this season. Gear up to get out there, I say! SdS Link to post Share on other sites
SKI 15 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Well that's convinced me. I'm getting my gear out tomorrow. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Currently the ENSO index is fairly neutral meaning it's not strongly El Nino. So although it appears we will be entering an El Nino phase again I don't think it's likely to be really strong this coming winter so is unlikely to have a significant effect on the winter weather pattern over Japan. Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Pow 52 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 It will snow in Hirafu on the 15th or 16th November. Flights are booked Link to post Share on other sites
glactose intolerant 0 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Sounds good! Any further updates on the predictions? Silly or otherwise. Link to post Share on other sites
iiyamadude 6 Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 The world is due to end in December so it's irrelevant really when you think about it. Link to post Share on other sites
Slippery Jim 65 Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 JMA saying 40% chance for more than usual December snowfall in Japan Sea coast regions north of Niigata, would seem to include Aizu region, Zao, Tazawako, Niseko/Rusutsu/Kiroro. Link to post Share on other sites
snowbender 3 Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 North of niigata? Link to post Share on other sites
Slippery Jim 65 Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 what it shows... Link to post Share on other sites
Tubby Beaver 209 Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Seen the same report (it's on JMA) Link to post Share on other sites
vito43 0 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Hi all, I'm new to the forums. I've had a look at the JMA long range forecasts for 12/13. I find it a bit unclear. For example in Niigata December - February they predict a 40% chance of below "normal snowfall" - does this mean a 60% of above "normal" snowfall? I remember the long range forecast for 10/11 predicted something similar and when I went to Niseko in January 2011 they had a big month of snow relatively speaking. So, does anyone know how often these forecasts are actually on the money or at this stage is it really just an educated guess based on the fact its been a warm summer much like it was back in 10/11? El nino is something I keep seeing being mentioned and I know it could be argued it caused the poor 08/09 season. Excuse my ignorance but does anyone know when we will know how strong this years el nino will be and are there any records previous to 08/09 of el nino events causing warm temps/poor snowfall at Japanese resorts? Basically, I'm going to Myoko this January all the way from Scotland and I'm hoping for cold and snowy!! Link to post Share on other sites
onsen tamago 0 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Updated progress report? Link to post Share on other sites
Tubby Beaver 209 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Vito, although there is of course a chance of crap weather, January is usually EXTREMELY snow heavy. Myoko often gets huge amounts and I wouldn't be too worried about it conditions wise.....I'm sure it'll be magic Link to post Share on other sites
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