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Well got the parafin heater out last night and gave it a bit of a run, tonight too!

 

Was quite cold here last night down to 5oC and tonight is already close to that maybe close to a frost tomorrow morning if the sky clears!

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Whats this thread doing on the 3rd page!?

 

JMA has Niigata down for 30% chance of less than average snow, 40% chance of average snow and 30% chance of more than average snow forecast for Dec-Feb.

 

Northern Japan with a slightly skewed to the "less than usual" area.

 

That sounds rather balanced!

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December is slightly biased for colder and more precipitation, so that sounds all right to me. I always look at Hokuriku because Nagano gets lumped together with Tokyo.

 

Memory only, but they have been biasing most winters toward "warm" in recent years.

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'Biasing'??

 

Their forecast models may well have predicted warmer winters but I'd hardly consider that a bias.

 

Considering there have been very few winters over the last decade that have averaged below the long term average I'd say they haven't been too far off the mark. wink

 

The fact they are forecasting a colder than average December is encouraging.

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Interesting, for where I am this November has actually worked out colder than last year, although November was supposed to have been on average warmer than last year.

 

Average mean low for Kofu for Nov = 4oC

Average mean high for Kofu for Nov = 16oC

 

Nov 2009 monthly mean low = 4.5oC

Nov 2010 monthly mean low = 3.2oC

 

Nov 2009 monthly mean high = 15.3

Nov 2010 monthly mean high = 14.7

 

I am a little further up the mountain and not in central Kofu so naturally I would expect the average temps to be lower than Kofo, but never the less this November has been on avearge colder than last year.

This year has seen more minus nights and low single figures than last year.

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