snowdude 44 Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 Ok it's that time of year where I dish out my winter forecast. Although last year Japan had some very cold and snowy weather last year like the previous two years or so it was rather patchy, meaning we had warm spells mixed with the cold. Well I am predicting that not only will it be very, very cold, and very snowy, but also it will be more continuous cold, not the patchy cold we had the past few years. This next part I may or may not be right, but from my observations, etc I think we are not going to have much of a summer next year. I will also say that I believe global cooling has started, and that this summer was our last very hot summer for some time. We can expect more colder winters starting this year! Link to post Share on other sites
pie-eater 207 Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 Originally Posted By: snowdude This next part I may or may not be right I really think you are right there! What do you base your forecasts on snowdude. Do tell. Link to post Share on other sites
Slippery Jim 65 Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 From your keyboard to Ma Nature's ears, Snowdude! Link to post Share on other sites
loaf of bread 0 Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 Yes, we could do with that! Link to post Share on other sites
snowdude 44 Posted September 19, 2010 Author Share Posted September 19, 2010 Originally Posted By: pie-eater Originally Posted By: snowdude This next part I may or may not be right I really think you are right there! What do you base your forecasts on snowdude. Do tell. How I forecast the winter and even next summer I cant tell you! But about global cooling I am happy to share. A lack of sunspots, the sun is currently in a period of very low solar activity, yes even though we had the hottest summer in 113 years or something. (Rmax = 68 ± 17), which the sun is likely to reach by 2014, meaning every year from this time will become colder. However I think it has already started and this winter will see the start of it for the northern hemisphere. The sun is the main driver of the climate! In the 17th century there were no sunspots for many years and during this time the earth was much colder. Also the Magnetic north (not to be confused with the geographical north which is in a different position) is moving towards russia at several kl's per year and has recently started to accerate more. This has a big effect on the earth. Many glaciers are growing not shrinking! The earth has gone through many hot and cold cycles and if records are accurate we are actually over due for an ice age! The last magnetic reversal happened 250,000 years ago, then north was south and south was north. This magnetic reversal seems to happen about every 250,000 years. This year there have been several volcanoes around the world. Notice the locations of them? This is all part of mother nature cooling the earth or at least getting ready to cool it. These are my conclusions only from my observations, samples and research. I may be right I may be totally wrong, but either way I think we will know with in a very few years at most how the earth will turn out. Link to post Share on other sites
pie-eater 207 Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 Sounds dead secret, like the recipie to a particularly special pie. I can understand that. Link to post Share on other sites
panhead_pete 27 Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 Which glaciers are growing? Link to post Share on other sites
Tubby Beaver 209 Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 well Glacier Mints are definitely shrinking....mum and dad brought me a bag out and I went through em in no time!! Hope your right Snowdude Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 Sorry but I'm going to have to actually bring some real science into this discussion, something snowdude is obviously not a big fan of. Sun Spots - yes they have decreased and Total Solar Irradiance has actually been decreasing since about 1980. That's 30 years now where the amount of energy from the sun irradiating the earth has been on the decline. And yet measurements of the air and sea temperatures over the last 30 years have shown an almost unabated increasing trend. If the sun was the main driver of climate I'd think we would have already been seeing a significant decrease in temperatures but the last decade 2000-2009 was the warmest in recorded history. Geomagnetic Reversals - The last time this happened was not 250,000 years ago but approximately 750,000 and is called the Brunhes–Matuyama Reversal. Currently there is no really accurate way to predict when a reversal may happen although they are precedeed by a rapid decrease in the magnetic fields strength. The earths magnetic field has been decreasing in strength for about 150 years now but from what I can tell the accepted best estimate currently for the next reversal is sometime after the next millenium. Frequency of reversals in the past have been as frequent as a couple of times within 50,000 years and as long as 10's of millions of years with no reversal and the average is actually 500,000 years not 250,000. There is currently no credible scientific link between reversals and the onset of ice ages or that they are all that catastrophic. Some 2012 end of the world nutters are claiming that a reversal will happen around then and be part of the their end of world scenario. Of course our extremely primitive ancestors 750,000 years ago managed to survive a reversal so I don't think we'll have too many problems. Volcanic eruptions - Yes there's been a few this year but nothing really out of the ordinary. Their location? All where you would normally expect volcanic eruptions to occur. Glaciers - You can cherry pick a few glaciers from around the world to try and patch together some ridiculous argument that the earth is cooling but the fact is that on the whole glaciers around the world are retreating and diminishing. Glaciers in the tropics which are especially susceptible to increases in temperatures are pretty much universally retreating. The global glacier cummulative volume change over the last 30 years has been nothing but rapidly decreasing. If you want I can show references to peer reviewed scientific papers to back up all of the above (or just trust me ). snowdude cannot do the same. Oh he can of course give links to nutcase websites which make all the ridiculous claims he does (that's where he gets it from) but I think he'd struggle to show one peer reviewed and published scientific paper that has any sort of acceptance in the mainstream (real) science community to back up his views. Just another case where bad, misleading and downright dishonest pseudoscience gets accepted as real science by someone who is so scientifically illiterate they are unable to tell the difference... As much as I would love us to be entering the next ice age (few people like colder and snowier weather than I do) I just don't see any evidence whatsoever that it is occurring. A number of natural factors do suggest we should be getting cooler but we aren't. And the best argument for why we aren't is the ever increasing greenhouse gases in our atmosphere. Link to post Share on other sites
mitchpee 10 Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 well looks like we found GN's hobby! Link to post Share on other sites
Jynxx 4 Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 Go dancing frog ! I'll consult the oracle myself... Long term weather forecasting is fortune telling, just using scientific concepts and modeling doesn't make the subject science. Link to post Share on other sites
Tex 3 Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 Glaciers? Global cooling/warming? Volcanoes? Magnetic Feilds? Answer the IMPORTANT questions. Is there going to be epic POW 19th-29th January 2011. If so the world will be saved, if not we are doomed! (well maybe not everyone is doomed but it adds effect). Anybody got the jellyfishes e-mail? Link to post Share on other sites
Jynxx 4 Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 Have you been a good boy, Tex ? the chances are (even if you haven't) it will be powww .... or get a tatoo on your forehead "doomed" anyone volunteer to get "POW" tatooed ? Link to post Share on other sites
Metabo Oyaji 71 Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 Should I trust the predictions of the guy who is named after snow, or those of the guy who is named after, uh, the number five. (???) Link to post Share on other sites
RobBright 35 Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 Don't listen to go native Snowdude! He's just trying to burst your (weather) balloon. Here's hoping Snowdude is right again. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 He forecasts exactly the same thing every year I've been on these forums, cold and snowy. Suprisingly every year it gets cold and snowy in winter!! Amazing isn't it!!! Anyway he went way beyond a weather forecast to a forecast of climate change. Gee what a terrible guy I am for pointing out a few pesky scientific facts that muddy the fantasy snowdude is trying to spin....I'd also love to believe in the fantasy that the earth will be cooling I can tell you! Unfortunately there's nothing to suggest it's currently occurring... Link to post Share on other sites
panhead_pete 27 Posted September 19, 2010 Share Posted September 19, 2010 Suitable rebuttal to the original statement I feel. I still hope it snows soon Link to post Share on other sites
RobBright 35 Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 Originally Posted By: Go Native He forecasts exactly the same thing every year I've been on these forums, cold and snowy. Suprisingly every year it gets cold and snowy in winter!! Amazing isn't it!!! Anyway he went way beyond a weather forecast to a forecast of climate change. Gee what a terrible guy I am for pointing out a few pesky scientific facts that muddy the fantasy snowdude is trying to spin....I'd also love to believe in the fantasy that the earth will be cooling I can tell you! Unfortunately there's nothing to suggest it's currently occurring... in the words of grungy gonads: Quote: whatever It's a bit of fun - stop being a killjoy. Link to post Share on other sites
grungy-gonads 54 Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 What beasts help you with your predictions snow dude? Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 Rob the day you get to tell me what I can and cannot write on these forums most certainly has yet to arrive. Having majored in meteorology for my degree I have more than just a passing interest in the subject of weather and climate. If I want to call someone out when they make claims on these subjects I will. If you don't like it, well too bad. Link to post Share on other sites
iiyamadude 6 Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 Find your thoughts on those stuff really interesting GN, sure lots do. Link to post Share on other sites
RobBright 35 Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 Originally Posted By: Go Native Rob the day you get to tell me what I can and cannot write on these forums most certainly has yet to arrive. Having majored in meteorology for my degree I have more than just a passing interest in the subject of weather and climate. If I want to call someone out when they make claims on these subjects I will. If you don't like it, well too bad. And if I want to call someone a killjoy because Snowdude is having some fun, then I can too. If you don't like something, well don't post. I give you permission to write whatever you want to write but you have to expect that people may disagree with you. I am not denying the facts about sun spots, il nina etc, far from it, but it's clear to see that Snowdude is having some fun with the prediction. Link to post Share on other sites
RobBright 35 Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 In fact, if you are such an expert, then why don't you offer us a prediction based on you knowledge? Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 I've already stated on the other weather thread some of my early thoughts on the upcoming season and pointed out I'd be waiting for the end of this month to make a more comprehensive forecast. And I don't claim to be an expert, just an interested amateur who has some limited scientific knowlege on the subject. Link to post Share on other sites
snowdude 44 Posted September 20, 2010 Author Share Posted September 20, 2010 Well GN must be getting his information from different sources than I am, because I have not guessed what I stated above, my statements are also from scientific so called facts that are readily out there that anyone can find. So I guess only GN's sources must be correct, strange that. And this BS about increasing green house gases, the amount of so called green house gases used to be much higher than now in fact. If the warming is caused by man made green house gases then who was responsible for the rise in green house gases Co2, before humans were even on this earth?? Let me guess the dinasours? Oh yes as I am scientifically illiterate as GN says, it makes what I say less bias, as I have studied and studied both sides of the argument and feel that the earth is going to get colder not warmer, and I am sticking to that until the earth shows me otherwise. For the past several years the earth has been very unstable in terms of weather, as I believe it is crossing over from a warm cycle to a cold cycle, just like the earth has done many many times before. My information does come from various web sites that is true, but I have studied many sources and come to my own conclusion about the climate. I come to my conclusions in a logical way not a biased scientific way. Is it not strange why the media only reports on warming events, even when quite clearly over the past 3 years or so many places have broken many previous cold and snow records, yet the media don't broadcast or show this? During our summer many places in the southern hemisphere have had some of the coldest winter temps on record, are they in the media? NO Did you also know that many of the worlds temperature reporting stations are actually in built up areas or areas where heat builds up. Very few temperature stations are actually in an open area where there would be less influence from other sources, other than natural. A good example would be in Kofu, Yamanashi the local temperature station is located at the lowest elevation in Kofu right next to a busy road, with buildings surrounding it. Hardly an accurate way to monitor temps. In comparison to where I live which is in the mountains surrounding Kofu, the temps are several degrees lower both day and night. But where I live still comes under Kofu, if I used my temps it would show quite a different picture. This is just an example of how temps are monitored around the world. If in the next three years or so the earths weather is as it is today then I will begin to doubt global cooling, but until that time I will stick with what I believe. Right or wrong we will see! Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts