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Originally Posted By: muikabochi
I think it was - in stops and starts. Early - mid January was the best. But after that we went back to the rather inconsistent pattern of the last few years.

 

my thoughts exactly, had a couple of really deep days the in first 10 days then very unpredictable. Still had a great season!

 

I hope it snows a lot this season for sure, had my trail map in the frezzer for a couple of months already

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GN: Like I said, a healthy dose of envy in there. But recognize that most of us have to plan well in advance and we're stuck with whatever days we chose. There aren't a lot of working stiffs who can just say, ``Oh, it's snowing in Niseko. I'll just drop everything and go up.''

The reason I (and many others, I believe) opt for Niseko is because it has the reliability (usually), and when it doesn't come through it's a big disappointment.

In 20+ years of skiing Niseko somewhere between 10 and 20 days a season, I've never experienced conditions as weak as last season. My bad luck? Maybe, but to then have you saying it was one of the best ever just twists the knife.

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Having been up there every one of those seasons, I'd certainly disagree from the non-locals' viewpoint. But let's leave it.

Niseko's a great place for powder skiing, and it's going to be at least waist-deep every damn day this season! See you there.

(Oh, and Hakuba will be damn good as well. And Nozawa, and Shiga, and Akakura.)

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Hey, we've gone way off topic talking about last winter...

 

What about the one coming up? Any new ideas?

 

Things are gradually cooling down in Tokyo but the past couple of days have been quite balmy, back to mid 20s hopefully for the last time until about May.

 

When can we expect the first proper winter weather pattern to establish itself?

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Well things are going to start cooling down in Hokkaido from tomorrow onwards. I think Saturday night into Sunday and Monday will see some light snowfalls across the mountains in Hokkaido and by Monday morning could reach to reasonably low levels (500-600m).

I'll be sure to post pics.

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I was thnking about this tonight as I went to the shop for a few beers. Its mid-October and its still warm enough for shorts n t-shirt, yesterday was beautiful, I was out on my bike from early morning and it was the temperature I wish summer could stay at. I can't think back to last year and figure out when it started to get cold.....surely within the next couple of weeks though...right?

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I know its a ways away but its getting cold here and saw snow on some of the higher peaks a couple hundred kms out of Beijing this morning as we flew over. The trees have all turned brown and red in just 3 weeks and Im sitting in a fleece in my lounge room, the change is here but it does get -30 here so I guess it would have to start sooner then Japan. Hopefully I can find some old fortune teller in town that can shed some light for us.

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Well I've covered most of it previously. The La Nina is a good indicator that we'll have a reasonably strong winter pattern. The early snow cover over Siberia is pretty extensive this early and is also a good indicator that the Siberian high should get well established which will help in keeping a normal winter weather pattern. I don't think the winter as a whole will be very cold but probably slightly cooler than average. I think snowfalls will be close to average. Overall looking like a good winter probable but don't think there'll be any big departures from averages.

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Just waiting for that cold air from Siberia to come down south, here in Bavaria.

Hasn't snowed yet like last year. The temp is going down. Last night, clear sky, cold, saw so many shooting stars and made lot's of wishes. wink, wink... nudge, nudge...

I'll go check out Hintertux next week, on a weekday, and report.

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On average January is the snowiest month without doubt. I don't have long term data available though to say which particular week in Jan would on average be the snowiest. In Niseko in Jan we normally average in excess of 1m each week of the month.

This is just on average though. Big dumps can occur anytime through the winter.

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Originally Posted By: Go Native
For you guys who live in Japan I would just wait for a good outlook and head up when it's pumping.


No offence, but how easy is it to get flights to Hokkaido at a few days notice, especially without paying full price (60,000 return)?

I'd go to Okinawa loads more if they sold off last minute tickets cheap but they don't. Travelling at short notice costs much more.
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Just checked Skymark for seats from Kobe to Chitose for tomorrow and could still get seats for Y14,800. That's the normal rate for that route with Skymark. Who are you flying with to be paying Y60,000 return??

 

Also checked Haneda to Chitose for tomorrow and still seats available at Y14,300.

 

 

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ok I am flying from Sydney to sapporo. a return trip in feb is about 1300 to 1600 (AUD) read the fine print !!! on your booking before you pay (I link you the booking site but I am not sure about the forum rules)

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Firstly I love forecasting, keep it all comiong, helps get me through the time before I get to where I am going.

 

Having said that if you are not lucky enough to be a local, it is exactly as Jim says and depends when you are there and what you get. But you cannot long term forecast a 2 week period with any accuracy, you can guess but that's about it. Even a week out things can change. Bang for buck... it has all got to come together especially if you are on a short term holiday.

 

Though best bet for snow is (as stated) January. A lovely local Nihonjin told me definitely January-February period is best. He also said end of January is his pick.

 

I think Niseko is like pizza even if it is BAD it is GOOD :o)

 

My pick is second half of Jan - but that is when I am going be there - biased and HOPEFUL. smile

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