Go Native 70 Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 They were pretty spot on with their winter predictions last year. Link to post Share on other sites
Slippery Jim 65 Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 Tubby, your granny was lucky to have a duffel jacket! And sandals! We had to walk in bare feel over glaciers with neck-high snow 37 miles just to get to a bus stop..and there weren't any buses! Link to post Share on other sites
RobBright 35 Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 Originally Posted By: snowdude I shouldn't worry about the JMA forecast they are always wrong. They predicted a cool summer this year and we got the hottest summer in over a 100 years! I still say we are in for a very very cold winter! Let's see how winter turns out this year. keep up those high spirts Snowdude! Link to post Share on other sites
Tubby Beaver 209 Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 Originally Posted By: Slippery Jim Tubby, your granny was lucky to have a duffel jacket! And sandals! We had to walk in bare feel over glaciers with neck-high snow 37 miles just to get to a bus stop..and there weren't any buses! haha....I'll remember and tell her that next time I'm home!! Link to post Share on other sites
klingon 10 Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 Which is it then - they be right or not? Link to post Share on other sites
best skier in hakuba 5 Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 I bet one of them will be right! Link to post Share on other sites
RobBright 35 Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 Someone should make a thread, and post a voting option in it. Go on best skier. Link to post Share on other sites
Tex 3 Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 December is forecast to have a higher likleyhood 40-30-30 % (Just) of being colder than average. January and February warmer 30-30-40. Overall the season is 30-30-40. Precipitation normal over the season 30-40-30. Snowfall normal or less 40-40-30. Hardly definitive and still very close odds things will be normal. If the 40% less snowfall comes to fruition... as GN says does that mean there will only be 11m instead of 13m? I am interested to know the difference between precipitation and snowfall and weather they actually are predicting rain as opposed to snow or whether it could still mean frozen wet stuff. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 Tex at this stage I wouldn't worry about it too much. Forecasts this far out generally have very little accuracy and are general foecasts for large regional areas not taking into account any smaller local factors. Anyway last season they predicted lower than average snowfalls in Hokkaido and for the most part average snowfalls were slightly down on normal but the season here in Niseko was one of the best for many years with bucket loads of powder days and still about 15m of snow at village level. You have to remember that average snowfall figures in Japan are huge and if we reach even just the average it's an awesome season. These average figures take into account snowfall amounts from the 50's and 60's which had higher average snowfalls than any other decades last century. All over the world snowfalls were big during those years. There's also been a couple of years with massive snowfalls, like Kutchan in 1970 recording 20m of snow. Years like this push the average up significantly. Since the 60's there's been a downward trend in total snowfall at most locations around Japan so you would expect that it's going to become rarer and rarer to actually exceed the average. Doesn't mean it won't be awesome though. Link to post Share on other sites
Tex 3 Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 No worries here, I think we a definitely on the same page as I am reading it just as you describe: open to interpretation but still going to be good Link to post Share on other sites
Slippery Jim 65 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 Quote: the season here in Niseko was one of the best for many years GN, sorry to start a battle here but I'm calling BS on this. Maybe (big, big maybe) for locals you could say that. For anyone who has to plan a trip in advance, last season was the worst I've seen in Niseko in my 20 years of skiing there. Note, I'm not saying the skiing was bad. Yes, there was plenty of base; yes, all the lifts were turning throughout January-February' and yes, I know there were powder days in March and right into April -- those count only for locals and people who had quite a bit of luck. For the rest of us, in comparison to average Niseko conditions, last season sucked, plain and simple, bigtime. To be fair, the whole season in Japan sucked equally: Shiga, Nozawa, Hakuba (yeah, I had a terrific powder day at Nozawa in late March -- pure unadulterated luck). I love Niseko and I ski there several times every winter, not lucky enough to be a local and take advantage of the powder days when they're not as regular as usual. But posts like that are very, very misleading. No offense intended, but let's keep it real. Citing total snowfall, snowpack numbers doesn't tell the actual story. Nine seasons out of 10, yes, Niseko is great. Last season was the 10th. Link to post Share on other sites
Hokkaidough 4 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 You really think that Jim? Sounds almost like the other extreme.... Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 SJ did you actually spend the season here in Niseko? Not one of the locals who live here had anything but good to say about last season. It was without doubt much better than the 3 previous seasons. Now I'm not sure how many days you came up here for but when we I talk about a good season well I mean the season as a whole, not the few days you personally managed to get up here. My post was not misleading. In terms of number of powder days and overall total snowfall and snow quality last season was the best since 05/06 in my opinion and just about everyone else's I've spoken to who live up here. Besides the warm period during the last week of Feb the rest of the season was mostly classic Niseko powder. Link to post Share on other sites
Jynxx 4 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 Might be just high expectation, that Niseko is bulletproof. To be honest, I don't know what standards to expect in Japan. I just know that snow quality is better in hokkaido and if it snows every night anywhere that's great. Last year in the European Alps, it snowed just around now in Austria. The locals said "that" never happened in 25 years. But they didn't get a good snowfall in Early Nov, and mid Nov was just like the last few years. Even Dec~Feb. It was like, sunny, then cold and windy and then it snowed so the avi risk was high. The reports weren't good in Swiss, Italy, either. There were periods of 1~2 weeks with no fresh snowfall. It was happening in France in a big way, though. So, I don't know if we can really expect great snow on the week we plan to go somewhere, and why Niseko can be an exception to that. I really waited and waited for that moment. Got most days powder, except the few days we went to Kitz (because missus was at school so we had to plan for her holiday) Even when it is powder, the window of 'untracked' is limited to a few hours. I had one amazing day in end of March, locally, and there were only half a dozen people there and snowed all day. I reckon people living in Hakuba and Niseko locally have more better days than I do and I live just an hour's drive away. Link to post Share on other sites
Jynxx 4 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 Right now in Austria ... Snow depth 60 cm @3000m total length of course open 28 km. Hintertux snowdepth 110 cm course open 42 km. Time to go. Just waiting for a fresh snow fall. Link to post Share on other sites
Slippery Jim 65 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 GN, I'm sure that for locals it was a great season. But for the vast number of people who go to Niseko from elsewhere, it wasn't. I made three trips: five days Jan 4-8, no new snow and most of the mountain was an ice rink; five days Jan 16-20, and only two of those days were up to usual Niseko standard; four days Feb 8-11 and I recall one day had good (boot-deep) snow. Point is, Niseko gets sold on its reliability for powder, and last season the powder just wasn't reliable for visitors. Sure, if you're up there for the whole season it's different. You probably count in 8 or 10 powder days in march? maybe 5 or 6 more in april? maybe more. But frankly, not very many people plan powder skiing trips to Niseko after february (well, not if they know anything about the place) because while there may well be great days, you can't count on it. Link to post Share on other sites
SKI 15 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 Unfortunately, the snow does not seem to be quite as reliable throughout Japan as it once was. Still great many times, but not quite the "consistant" that it used to be. Lets hope this year puts it back on track. Link to post Share on other sites
Slippery Jim 65 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 To expand on that just a bit more: When people ask me about Niseko, I tell them that anytime in January or February they can bulletproof count on two great powder days in a five-day trip, one of them knee-deep, and probably at least a little more fresh snow on two of the other three days. That's my standard for Niseko. Total powder days between November and May, total snowfall for a season -- those are nice numbers, but not really too useful for trip planning. Again, this is no knock on Niseko. The whole season sucked in Japan as far as reliable powder goes. Link to post Share on other sites
Slippery Jim 65 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 Ski: from your keyboard to the snow gods' ears! And GN: You have to understand, there's a pretty hefty dose of pure, unadulterated ENVY in my posts Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 Jim you were just a little unlucky I guess. On the 4th and 5th of Jan it was pretty good but then yes there were a few days without much snow, reasonably high winds and mild temps for that time of year. Pity you weren't there 9-12 Jan when nearly 1m of new snow fell! 16 Jan was pretty epic with around 70cm falling in the previous 24 hours! 17 Jan was an incredible day after a very cold night and another fall of 20cm of as light and dry snow as you get in Niseko. It eased off after then and by the 20th it got very mild ahead of another system that dropped almost another metre of snow the following week. And between 8-12 Feb I guess since we only had about 50cm of snow it wasn't quite up to par I understand what you're saying though Jim. I do feel sorry for those that only come for 4 or 5 days and it's not rocking during their stay. Still I honestly don't know of any other resort in the world that gets more deep powder days on average than Niseko. If you can find me one I'll go live there! Link to post Share on other sites
sand 17 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 Bad timing of 4 days in Niseko end of Feb last year, got slush and ice. At least my technique on ice improved nicely. 2 weeks before a buddy got 3 days of waist deep. Bad luck for me, I guess. this time coming for 3 weeks in Jan, and again for a week in Feb, looking forward to some good powder days hopefully. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 For you guys who live in Japan I would just wait for a good outlook and head up when it's pumping. Link to post Share on other sites
sand 17 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 Originally Posted By: Go Native For you guys who live in Japan I would just wait for a good outlook and head up when it's pumping. really hard for me to get time off on spare of the moment. unexpected cost is also a factor that unfortunately weighs heavy for me as well, so decided on 3 weeks in a row, hoping this will result in at least some deep pow Link to post Share on other sites
Tubby Beaver 209 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 I actually thought it was a pretty good season last year Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 I think it was - in stops and starts. Early - mid January was the best. But after that we went back to the rather inconsistent pattern of the last few years. Link to post Share on other sites
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