Alexander L 80 Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Actually the forum troll always says my forecasts are nothing but wild guesses. Well I challenge GN to forecast/predict what this years weather is going to be in Japan. It will be fun to see if he takes up the challenge as he thinks he knows everything he must know how to predict the weather better than me. GN you up for the challenge? Lets see who is better or worse. Hold on guys, let me put the popcorn in the microwave. Link to post Share on other sites
jacko 3 Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 Ahhhh. One of those sorts of forecasts. You'd think I'd know better after 5 ski trips to Japan. *doh* Link to post Share on other sites
ippy 66 Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 oooh, how can we set up the challenge? No vague guessery. Lets all play! What shall we use as the control and what data will be predicted? Since i have zero weather claims, i definitely count as a member of the control group. Ideally we're looking for something with much less than a 25% chance of randomly guessing correct. I'll leave it up to you science bods to thrash out the details of how we can go about this... but if you can come to some kind of agreement on places, temperatures and snowfall for a VERY SPECIFIC period (can we use something like SJ weather reports for material), then we can test the efficacy of it all Link to post Share on other sites
Tubby Beaver 209 Posted September 16, 2013 Share Posted September 16, 2013 you and your organisational tendencies take the fun out of every bun fight! Link to post Share on other sites
Saitaman 1 Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 Any thoughts on when spring will arrive? Link to post Share on other sites
pie-eater 207 Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 After winter, Saitaman. And spring will either be warmer or cooler than 'average'. (Not sure when it will be though, pinpointing it is rather more difficult and involves faffing about with complex charts and consulting with jellyfish.) Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 Actually the forum troll always says my forecasts are nothing but wild guesses. Well I challenge GN to forecast/predict what this years weather is going to be in Japan. It will be fun to see if he takes up the challenge as he thinks he knows everything he must know how to predict the weather better than me. GN you up for the challenge? Lets see who is better or worse. I've never claimed to be a weather forecaster so why would I take up the challenge? I leave it to the experts to make their forecasts and let's face it they aren't much more accurate than yourself. At least not this far out. Your forecasts are a bit of fun snowdude. Well at least they're a bit of fun in their naivety and simplicity. I just merely pointed out to a relatively new member of this forum that it's best not to take your forecasts seriously. And I'd have the same advice this far out from the season for anyone putting too much faith into any forecasts by anyone. Pointing out that you are scientifically illiterate is a just pointing out a fact. You are. Link to post Share on other sites
Boolugu Mez 3 Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 Have to say I love reading the banter regarding long term seasonal forecasts on the forums, it's a nice way to gee up the excitement levels as we get closer to the season which we are all hoping fbrings record cold temps & voluminous snowfall !! As to the scientific method and measurable degree of accuracy, both of these factors are highly questionable in the predictions I see posted( except for Pie Eater who seems to nail it with his uncanny ability to predict the EXACT conditions of winter well in advance- year in, year out ) Meteorological agencies such as BOM and JMA will only ever predict the weather long range according to the probabilty of conditions being below, average, or above average - based on comparing numerous model forecasts which involve so many dynamic and complex interactions that it takes supercomputers and expert weather scientists to even guess what the weather may end up being kind of vaguely like for the coming season (within a specified range of probablity....) Anytway, in the spirit of a fair contest and for genuine entertainment value, for those of you in the predictions business how about a providing a forecast which can be verified in a measurable way--- lets get specific: ------ When will the base snowpack depths crack the 1m and then 2m mark for both Niseko & Hakuba at village level ?-------- ( winners are deemed to be those whose predicted dates are closest to the dates of the Snowjapan daily resort reports ) ( maybe SJ could even offer some sort of prize for the winner to add incentives....???) The champions of this challenge will be crowned the Supreme Weather Overlords sometime during the next winter ( and the losers will be mocked, vis-a-vis: Iron Chefu !!! ) Carry on - let the games begin!!! Link to post Share on other sites
pie-eater 207 Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 (except for Pie Eater who seems to nail it with his uncanny ability to predict the EXACT conditions of winter well in advance- year in, year out ) I'd just like to say that it may well seem simple, but it jolly well isn't! There's no fannying about. And lots of science stuff. (As well as wise advice from jellyfish and kamemushi. And some oba-sans). Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted September 17, 2013 Share Posted September 17, 2013 Well done forecasters! Link to post Share on other sites
Chriselle 158 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 Yes..Well done!! Now ... if only you guys looked like the hottie NHK weather girls it would be perfect. Link to post Share on other sites
klingon 10 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 I doubt they'll be able to measure the snow depth in town level at Hakuba..... it being bottomless! Link to post Share on other sites
Chriselle 158 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 tread lightly Klingon....tread (whisper) l...i..g..h..t...l...y... Link to post Share on other sites
pie-eater 207 Posted September 18, 2013 Share Posted September 18, 2013 = Link to post Share on other sites
ILoveZao 8 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Link to post Share on other sites
big-will 7 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 That particular weather lady does sound a bit like the Mars Attacks aliens when she says "konban wa". Link to post Share on other sites
634-maru 4 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Loads of snow please. That's all. Link to post Share on other sites
634-maru 4 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Oh yes. Preferably overnight. Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 Is that a forecast 634-maru. Sounds good to me. Clear sunny days as well. Link to post Share on other sites
Space Indaver 1 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Hello, first post. I'm a relative newbie at snowboarding, but I went a handful of times this past winter, and it's been a long summer of missing it. Does anyone have any tips for places in Gifu that won't have entirely terrible snow in November? Or is December the earliest I can expect without travelling to Hokkaido? Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I don't know about Gifu, but November isn't really into the season anywhere, it's very early. A wide generalisation again but most places the season starts mid to late December. Link to post Share on other sites
Space Indaver 1 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 I don't know about Gifu, but November isn't really into the season anywhere, it's very early. A wide generalisation again but most places the season starts mid to late December. Balls. Well, at least there's the basketball season. And GTA Online. And porridge. With cinammon in. Link to post Share on other sites
Chriselle 158 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Indaver.....Better take your mountain bike with you.....just in case.. Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Do remember to BOOK NOW! though Link to post Share on other sites
Tubby Beaver 209 Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Even Hokkaido will be lucky if it's going in November. I think some resorts have opening days around the end of November but it's hit n miss if they are open or open enough to warrant the effort to go Link to post Share on other sites
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