WINTER FORECAST 2013/14

[snowdude 44]

This winter is looking like being extremely cold and in some areas extremely snowy.

Eastern, Northern and some southern parts of Japan will be much colder than usual and much more snowy in some of these areas.

Western Japan average to colder than average and average to above average snow.

 

Depending on what happens with the sun over the next couple of months,winter may well be late starting if not very late in some areas, but once it starts expect very severe weather for prolonged periods.

 

At the moment the sun although at solar max is almost dead, virtually no sunspots. But there is a possibility of a double peak over this coming winter, if that happens then winter could well be very late starting or even warmer than expected.

 

If the pattern we have at the moment continues, with a sleeping sun, the PDO going negative, the jet stream as it is then we can expect a very cold winter indeed.

The Arctic sea ice this year has extended by 60% over the same period last year and covers a much larger area than it has done for some time. (This is reported by NASA from a satellite image that they took this year and last year).

 

Some of the passages that ships normally use in summer have been impassable this year as the ice hasn't melted during summer.

Europe is also heading for its sixth very cold winter in a row, with this winter possibly being one the coldest in a hundred years or more.

America and especially the NW is also looking like getting record cold this year!

 

Looking at how are summer has been and looking around my local area at all the signs nature is putting out I do expect this winter to be a record breaker for cold and snow!

[pie-eater 207]

Thanks snowdude.

 

I'm still putting the final touches to mine, will post when it's ready.

 

[jacko 3]

winter may well be late starting if not very late in some areas

 

what does late starting in Japan using mean? mid dec? late dec? heaven forbid, mid jan?

[pie-eater 207]

OK, after consulting all my charts and lots of wizardly analysis and stuff, here's mine.

I'm distilling my 25 page in depth report with what might sound like lots of scientific faffing about, into some simple bullet points:

 

* It will get colder between now (mid September) and December. December will almost definitely be colder than October;

* the first snowfall will arrive in mountainous regions before the end of the year;

* there will be heavy snowfall in places between December and February;

* it will be 'bottomless' in Hakuba between mid December and late March. (BOOK NOW!)

* one or two 'rain events' may be possible during winter. May be not. It will depend.

 

[gozaimaas 61]

Will the days also become shorter pie-eater?

[pie-eater 207]

Very possibly.

 

In fact, probably.

[gozaimaas 61]

 

Well I just cant wait to see how this all pans out!

[pdoull 2]

Not windy - thats a relief

[Go Native 70]

winter may well be late starting if not very late in some areas

 

what does late starting in Japan using mean? mid dec? late dec? heaven forbid, mid jan?

 

Please, please don't actually take anything snowdude says in his forecasts as anything other than pure guesswork. He's never studied any science subject, let alone a climate related science subject, in his life. Think of his forecasts as similar to astrology. A bit of fun maybe but not something to be taken seriously by anyone with a brain.

[griller 9]

pie-eater's forecasts are always pretty accurate though.

 

[Go Native 70]

pie's forecasts are always spot on. It's uncanny how accurate he is!

[Tubby Beaver 209]

Will the days also become shorter pie-eater?

 

No....I'm pretty sure each day will still be 24 hrs long

[pie-eater 207]

Will the days also become shorter pie-eater?

 

No....I'm pretty sure each day will still be 24 hrs long

 

Good point, Tubby!

 

[seemore 66]

Will the days also become shorter pie-eater?

 

No....I'm pretty sure each day will still be 24 hrs long

[pie-eater 207]

Thanks griller and Go Native.

I do try.

Not always easy with Mother Nature being so unpredictable, but with a minimum of fannying about in the end I can get that forecast properly formulated.

Gambarimasu.

 

[snowdude 44]

I see the forum troll is back as soon as I say anything about weather. LOL HAHA!!!!

[gozaimaas 61]

Haha all in good fun snowdude...........now where did I put my tea leaves

[surfarthur 22]

To be fair, Snowdude, if i read your forcast correctly, you are predicting that this winter might be colder and more snowy, it might get off to a late starts, or it might be warmer than usual. that is a pretty broad forecast which no doubt because of how open you have left it, you will claim to be 100% correct around march.

[snowdude 44]

Not might. It will be a lot colder unless the sun decides to wake up over the next few months something that only the sun knows.

The late start part is a bit of an unsure though.

 

I do expect it to be a very rough winter as it stands.

 

 

 

[Alexander L 80]

will Hokkaido get more snow this winter? Please tell me, this is important.

[snowdude 44]

Actually the forum troll always says my forecasts are nothing but wild guesses.

Well I challenge GN to forecast/predict what this years weather is going to be in Japan. It will be fun to see if he takes up the challenge as he thinks he knows everything he must know how to predict the weather better than me.

 

GN you up for the challenge?

Lets see who is better or worse.

 

[Tubby Beaver 209]

Are you heading back to the big N this year, Thurs?

[snowdude 44]

will Hokkaido get more snow this winter? Please tell me, this is important.

 

Yes!

[Alexander L 80]

Cool

[Alexander L 80]

Are you heading back to the big N this year, Thurs?

 

Hokkaido YES. But where is still up in the air.

 

But I'd better book early.