tripitaka 0 Posted October 27, 2008 Share Posted October 27, 2008 Travel cancellations due to the strong yen, for example, have hit the town of Kutchan, Hokkaido, which is part of the Niseko ski resort known to be popular among skiers from Australia, people involved in the local tourism industry said. The head of a large hotel in the town, which had anticipated more than 20,000 foreign visitors this winter, said a half of its guests are foreigners in wintertime but some 15 percent of reservations from abroad have already been canceled. An official of a local association of tourism organizations said, ‘‘We hope the government will swiftly take effective measures to deal with the high yen.’’ Link to post Share on other sites
scouser 4 Posted October 27, 2008 Share Posted October 27, 2008 These threads not good enough for you triptaka? http://www.snowjapanforums.com/ubbthreads.php/topics/289045/Strong_Yen_UK_pound_taking_a_b.html http://www.snowjapanforums.com/ubbthreads.php/topics/289546/Cancelling_travel_plans.html Link to post Share on other sites
kkk 7 Posted October 27, 2008 Share Posted October 27, 2008 G7 'preparing to drive down the yen' Members of the Group of Seven (G7) nations may be considering a joint market intervention to prevent a further surge in the yen as the Japanese currency’s sharp rise threatens the world’s second biggest economy and other Asian economies. The yen, which is trading at around Y93 against the greenback, lurched higher today, despite the afternoon warning statement from the G7 and direct comments by the Japanese Finance Minister that currency traders said amounted to “the clearest possible†signs the Japanese Government was poised to intervene in the markets. Analysts interpreted a rare currency volatility warning by the G7 as a sign that Japan and others may step in to foreign exchange markets and artificially force down the Japanese currency if the yen breaches the Y90 level against the US dollar. Japanese government sources told The Times that if it intervenes to fight the prevailing market tide and weaken the yen, it “may do so with the support of other G7 nationsâ€. In its relentless surge higher, the yen has smashed through levels previously thought to offer more resistance. Some analysts believe that its rally may continue to Y79 – a level that would be devastating to the earnings of companies such as Toyota, Canon and Sony. An intervention drive by the Japanese authorities could prove hugely costly: the Government would be forced to sell the yen heavily in favour of dollars and would be doing so against the powerful tide of yen-buying triggered by the global unwinding of the carry trade - the investment practice where the Japanese currency was borrowed on a large scale to finance investments around the world. Although the Bank of Japan has remained tight-lipped on the question of currency intervention, Shoichi Nakagawa, Japan's Finance Minister, said today that he saw "excessive volatility" in the yen's exchange rate and that he was he “watching with great interest.†This was the kind of language used by the Japanese Government during its most recent – and spectacular – bout of intervention in early 2004 where it amassed tens of billions of dollars in its effort to weaken the yen and make the country’s exports more attractive. “We are concerned about the recent excessive volatility in the exchange rate of the yen and its possible adverse implications for economic and financial stability,†said the G7 statement, adding that all members “shared interest in a strong and stable international financial system†and would “co-operate as appropriate.†Currency traders at Royal Bank of Scotland in Tokyo said that verbal intervention was no substitute for the real thing, and that Japan and the other G7 nations needed to move before any traders would believe they were serious. Analysts at Société Générale gave warning that even if joint G7 intervention were carried out, the effects would not be long term until the yen carry trade had unwound and the pressures it is creating are relieved. “No matter what authorities do, the yen's longer-term strength will likely remain for the time being,†said SG’s chief of foreign exchange. In what one Macquarie economist described as “slow torture†for Japan’s big exporters, the yen worked its way towards a 13-year high against the US currency, and hit an all-time high against the Australian dollar. It is trading at a six-year high against the euro, and analysts at Nomura predict further rises in the course of the next few hours as London trading begins Link to post Share on other sites
tripitaka 0 Posted October 27, 2008 Author Share Posted October 27, 2008 The yen's been as high as USD 0.8. The Japanese only seemed to be concerned about the USD. Maybe this time's different. Link to post Share on other sites
KRUSTY 2 Posted October 27, 2008 Share Posted October 27, 2008 So if the Government does intervene does any one have any idea which currency could be the most profitable short term to buy using Yen? Link to post Share on other sites
-30deg 0 Posted October 27, 2008 Share Posted October 27, 2008 Sounds like we are moving towards a situation of the world vs Japanese government. If world sentiment is to buy yen, the govt intervention effects will be short lived and very costly to the nation. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Trip I'd like to know what hotel that is. I would say most of the western operators here aren't having quite so many cancellations because they have considerably stricter cancellation policies than do Japanese hotels, meaning most people canceling now would lose their 20% deposits. Numerous companies up here have recently reduced rates on existing bookings (and future ones) to help ease the pain of the high Yen and reduce the amount of cancellations. Without doubt though I don't think we can expect any meteoric increases in the amount of people coming to Niseko this season. And certainly I'd say construction of new apartments and houses next summer will be well down. Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Pow 52 Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Originally Posted By: tripitaka The head of a large hotel in the town, which had anticipated more than 20,000 foreign visitors this winter, said a half of its guests are foreigners in wintertime but some 15 percent of reservations from abroad have already been canceled. Those numbers don't seem right. The local Kutchan government reported a doubling in visitor numbers from 2006 to 2007 - an increase from 12,000 to 24,000 - of which some 15,000 were from Australia. Either this hotelier was expecting a massive rise in visitor numbers for 2008/09 or he/she had 83% of the market Link to post Share on other sites
Yuki's Passion 1 Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 so who cares if a few less aussies are in town? Good, more pow pow for me I hope the lot of em stay home FWIW!! Thats my memory of Niseko 6 years ago and now its going to be shattered Man, there were just a few foreigners back in the day and freshies could be had all day long and night, and the next day and the next...Japanese back then werent into powder like they are now either so it was bliss. Dont get me wrong, there were lots of tracks, but still more powder than you could shake a stick at. Maybe that 15-20% will increase that much more powder...hmmmm...if only my tractor beam was fkna finished then Down Under would no longer be Link to post Share on other sites
SerreChe 2 Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Their anticipation = 20k + globally which matches your number, but this hotel itself had x% of cancellations for themselves, not of the 20k + expected visitors. So yes, this is gonna be a tough year for many people. Operators, people who used to be able to afford holidays & can't anymore, etc... I hope it turns out ok for everybody, but I have some doubts to say the least. The most inflated markets are the ones that suffer the most once things revert to more 'reasonable' levels and as we know, well Niseko was just outta of there price-wise. Still OZs who invested in Niseko, even if they loose on the absolute value of their investment will have locked some currency gains assuming it was fully paid for. On the other hand, if most people bought by borrowing in JPY while having an AUD source of income then Niseko is in for a very bleak next few years... Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Pow 52 Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 If I could have posted a tongue in cheek icon then I would have. In my experience, the majority of properties were paid for using non-Japanese equity and non-Japanese currency. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Originally Posted By: Creek Boy so who cares if a few less aussies are in town? Good, more pow pow for me I hope the lot of em stay home FWIW!! Thats my memory of Niseko 6 years ago and now its going to be shattered Man, there were just a few foreigners back in the day and freshies could be had all day long and night, and the next day and the next...Japanese back then werent into powder like they are now either so it was bliss. Dont get me wrong, there were lots of tracks, but still more powder than you could shake a stick at. Maybe that 15-20% will increase that much more powder...hmmmm...if only my tractor beam was fkna finished then Down Under would no longer be I'm kinda of with you on this CB. It's just I need things to stay reasonably ok so that I can keep a job so I can stay living here... More freshies is a kind of nice silver lining though! Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Pow 52 Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 If you can't find the freshies CB you're not looking in the right place Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 And don't you dare tell him where to look Mike! Link to post Share on other sites
Yuki's Passion 1 Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Originally Posted By: MikePow If you can't find the freshies CB you're not looking in the right place I havent skied there in 6 years MP, but I know that mountain pretty well having skied well over 100 days up there...but will be looking for partners for the back bowls/Goshiki runs I am only posting what Ive heard bout the powder up there the last few years... Link to post Share on other sites
Amos in Utsunomia 0 Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 (Oope meant to put this here not in the other thread) Someone else mentioned it but won't this mean that there are places opening up for other eager beavers who wanted to go at peak times but couldn't because places were full? Some of them will have the cash to splash...... Link to post Share on other sites
lin 0 Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Friend of mine has just done that in the last few days... Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Kutchan has been there with or without foreigners. May just mean a few seasonal businesses will be having a bad time this season? Link to post Share on other sites
mina2 6 Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 I was thinking along the same lines just before. After explosive growth and massive amounts of cash pouring in, a slight slowdown might act as a reality check and end up being a good thing. It's not as if it is going to be deserted... Perhaps? Link to post Share on other sites
grungy-gonads 54 Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 When people start making lots of money, it is painful to see it get less (even if it is still lots). Link to post Share on other sites
tripitaka 0 Posted October 28, 2008 Author Share Posted October 28, 2008 Perhaps a good opportunity to turn one of the flash condos into bunk beds Link to post Share on other sites
panhead_pete 27 Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Can someone please explain why the Yen is holding its value so well? Link to post Share on other sites
tripitaka 0 Posted October 28, 2008 Author Share Posted October 28, 2008 Originally Posted By: panhead_pete Can someone please explain why the Yen is holding its value so well? It's basically becuase the yen has been funding investment around the world. So when you see all those flash houses and cars in Australia, you know where the money's been coming from to pay for it all. While mining's been good, it still isn't enough to pay for the Aussie lifestyle. But now the shite's hit the fan, the Japanese want their money back. You might find this hard to believe but collectively Aussies spend approx $1.70 for every dollar they earn. Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Pow 52 Posted October 28, 2008 Share Posted October 28, 2008 Originally Posted By: Creek Boy Originally Posted By: MikePow If you can't find the freshies CB you're not looking in the right place I havent skied there in 6 years MP, but I know that mountain pretty well having skied well over 100 days up there...but will be looking for partners for the back bowls/Goshiki runs I am only posting what Ive heard bout the powder up there the last few years... Look forward to making some turns Link to post Share on other sites
Yuki's Passion 1 Posted October 30, 2008 Share Posted October 30, 2008 cool Link to post Share on other sites
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