LiquidX 0 Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 What does it mean griller? Link to post Share on other sites
griller 9 Posted September 15, 2009 Share Posted September 15, 2009 The jellyfish all over shonan since the end of August means that it won't snow much until late December in Nagano and Niigata but will be a bumper January. The dead fish that Tubby Beaver refers to means that Gifu will have a good season but might be bad news for Toyama. I thought it was pretty obvious. Link to post Share on other sites
Topless Snowboarding Nun 0 Posted September 17, 2009 Share Posted September 17, 2009 I forecast plentiful snow each evening followed by bright sunny days from 8am each day. Link to post Share on other sites
Tubby Beaver 209 Posted September 17, 2009 Share Posted September 17, 2009 Originally Posted By: griller The jellyfish all over shonan since the end of August means that it won't snow much until late December in Nagano and Niigata but will be a bumper January. The dead fish that Tubby Beaver refers to means that Gifu will have a good season but might be bad news for Toyama. I thought it was pretty obvious. now that you mention it Griller....yeah it is very obvious!! Link to post Share on other sites
cram400 0 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 Long term forecast for Dec thru Feb released by the JMA today.. I don't like to read too much into it as long term forecasting is shady at best.. wasn't it in 2005 when they said it was going to be a very warm winter and it ended up being an epic season in terms of cold temps and snowfall? here it is anyways: Temps Forecast Northern Japan (incl. all prefectures Fukushima & Yamagata and north) 40% chance of above average temps 30% chance of average temps 30% chance of below average temps Kanto & Hokuriku 50% chance of above average temps 30% chance of average temps 20% chance of below average temps Snowfall Forecast Sea of Japan side of Hokkaido, Tohoku and Hokuriku 40% chance of below average snowfall 40% chance of average snowfall 20% chance of above average snowfall Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 And they're predicting below average snowfalls again. They were reasonably accurate last season but they do get it wrong. Here's hoping they're wrong for this season. Link to post Share on other sites
SKI 15 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 With generally less snow in modern times, that "average" must be getting lower too. Link to post Share on other sites
NoFakie 45 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 å¯’ãƒ»æš–å€™æœŸäºˆå ±ï¼ˆé–¢æ±ç”²ä¿¡åœ°æ–¹ï¼‰2009å¹´9月24日発表 平年ã«æ¯”ã¹æ›‡ã‚Šã‚„雨ã¾ãŸã¯é›ªã®æ—¥ãŒå¤šã„ã§ã—ょã†ã€‚ ã“ã®æœŸé–“ã®å¹³å‡æ°—温ã¯ã€é«˜ã„確率50%ã§ã™ã€‚ é™æ°´é‡ã¯ã€å¹³å¹´ä¸¦ã¾ãŸã¯å¤šã„確率ã¨ã‚‚ã«40%ã§ã™ã€‚ ãªãŠã€12月ã¾ã§ã®å„月ã®äºˆå ±ã«ã¤ã„ã¦ã¯ã€æœ€æ–°ã®3ã‹æœˆäºˆå ±ç‰ã‚’ã”覧下ã•ã„。 http://tenki.jp/long/detail-4.html?forecast_span=six_month Sounds like it could go either way for Nagano/Niigata. Average or more precipitation, but probably high temps. If it falls when its cold, wahey! If it doesn't, boo! Hot and wet is nice with a lady, but ain't no good if you're in the mountains! The lower resorts might suffer again, but it should be fine if not loads better than fine higher up. BBC reported a month or so back that ocean temps are way up worldwide, which means more evaporation and more precipitation. That makes sense to me! Soubriquet talked about it too, assisted by charts in very psychedelic colours. Link to post Share on other sites
HelperElfMissy 42 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 Originally Posted By: Mr Wiggles Soubriquet talked about it too, assisted by charts in very psychedelic colours. How is Soubs? Haven't seen him around in a long while. Link to post Share on other sites
grungy-gonads 54 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 I recall him getting increasingly stroppy and bitter, and then disappearing. He popped up a few weeks ago saying "I've been away for a bit" followed by nothing. http://www.snowjapanforums.com/ubbthreads.php/ubb/userposts/id/2902.html Anywhos, more precipitation it is then. Hurrah! Link to post Share on other sites
HelperElfMissy 42 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 Originally Posted By: grungy-gonads I recall him getting increasingly stroppy and bitter, and then disappearing. He popped up a few weeks ago saying "I've been away for a bit" followed by nothing. His lady was very ill ... I'd be stroppy too. I have wondered how she was going, and how Soubs was coping. Cant have been an easy time for them. Link to post Share on other sites
grungy-gonads 54 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 For sure. And I think that lot of people on here were extremely sympathetic as well. I hope he and his lady are fine. But... it doesn't give you free licence to lash out at anyone and everyone on a public forum. Link to post Share on other sites
deanrobi 2 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 Originally Posted By: Mada Long term forecast for Dec thru Feb released by the JMA today.. I don't like to read too much into it as long term forecasting is shady at best.. wasn't it in 2005 when they said it was going to be a very warm winter and it ended up being an epic season in terms of cold temps and snowfall? here it is anyways: Temps Forecast Northern Japan (incl. all prefectures Fukushima & Yamagata and north) 40% chance of above average temps 30% chance of average temps 30% chance of below average temps Kanto & Hokuriku 50% chance of above average temps 30% chance of average temps 20% chance of below average temps Snowfall Forecast Sea of Japan side of Hokkaido, Tohoku and Hokuriku 40% chance of below average snowfall 40% chance of average snowfall 20% chance of above average snowfall So does that mean that there is a 60% chance of above average snowfall for Hokkaido? Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 All a bit off topic but yes soubs if you are still around and perhaps lurking, come on and let us know how things are. Link to post Share on other sites
HelperElfMissy 42 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 Originally Posted By: ratherb@thesnow Sea of Japan side of Hokkaido, Tohoku and Hokuriku 40% chance of below average snowfall 40% chance of average snowfall 20% chance of above average snowfall So does that mean that there is a 60% chance of above average snowfall for Hokkaido? ummm... I am not expert... but I reckon it means a 20% chance of above average snowfall. Perhaps you mean a 60% chance of average to above average snowfall? Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 if it's 40% chance of below average, the n its 60% average or above. Link to post Share on other sites
deanrobi 2 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 MB, think you are right now that I have re-read the whole thing in context and not just the individual lines,(all adds up to 100%). I will go back to sleep. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 Basically there's a good chance of average and it would be nice to just get an average year again. The likelihood of above average though is only 20% and there's more chance of below average. Link to post Share on other sites
snowdude 44 Posted September 26, 2009 Author Share Posted September 26, 2009 I'll still go with my forecast of a very cold and snowy winter this year! It will be interesting to see if JMA or I am correct! Link to post Share on other sites
cram400 0 Posted September 26, 2009 Share Posted September 26, 2009 i like your confidence in your prediction, snowdude.. i have absolutely no problem you being correct and the JMA being way off the mark.. Link to post Share on other sites
zdlfskdladealijfsxdfk 0 Posted September 26, 2009 Share Posted September 26, 2009 Everything covered then! Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted September 26, 2009 Share Posted September 26, 2009 Well JMA will update their forecast regularly and frankly as we all know forecasting models are lucky enough to get it right just a few days out. When we're talking months out it's just pure speculation. Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted September 26, 2009 Share Posted September 26, 2009 I don't care what the season turns out like. I only care aout the week that I am there. And that week will be non-stop epic stuff. Link to post Share on other sites
RobBright 35 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 Originally Posted By: thursday if it's 40% chance of below average, the n its 60% average or above. or 80% of average and below depending on how you read it? those statistics are so wide, its basically covering their arses if it pukes or doesn't puke snow. Link to post Share on other sites
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