Go Native 70 Posted December 25, 2007 Share Posted December 25, 2007 Looking as though we might have a significant rain event over the weekend (or at least really wet snow and sleet) Going into next week it should cool down again and we'll hopefully get plenty of snow, it's just we shouldn't be getting any rain at this time of year at all!! Currently in Niseko it's not looking that much better than last season at the same time. Really hope Jan, Feb and Mar bring it on big time... Link to post Share on other sites
bellavista 0 Posted December 25, 2007 Share Posted December 25, 2007 GN -Merry christmas - I've been watching that system for a few days now and the only good news is a. it will snow after the rain b. the maps are becoming more encouraging Looking at the GFS/COLA maps , the 29th/30th has changed to a slightly more optimistic situation. Even this morning there was a whole heap of moisture in front of the 540 line with the 540 line above/behind Hirafu. The recently updated maps at least have the 540 line below Hirafu. So hopefully it will be as you say wet snow/sleet. I think we're looking at rain in the village and snow on the hill. Big fingers crossed for further improvement. Edit 26/12/07 - Looking nasty again. (These will update, so only valid for 6-12hrs)) Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted December 25, 2007 Author Share Posted December 25, 2007 Yeah really hoping the forecast keeps improving. Last season at around this time we had a heavy fall of rain and lost around 30cm of cover. Fingers crossed it doesn't occur again this year. And yeah I probably should have waited until after Christmas before discussing such depressing things. Link to post Share on other sites
kaiser soce 0 Posted December 26, 2007 Share Posted December 26, 2007 Sounds like my trip to Asahikawa on the 27th might be timed well! Any ideas of the freezing levels in niseko on the weekend GN? Link to post Share on other sites
ausi ski bum 1 Posted December 26, 2007 Share Posted December 26, 2007 I arrive Friday and when I got there in January this year it was also raining followed by a huge snow event. One thing I learned over my years of skiing is I really don't care it will snow when its ready. There is a lot more snow now then this time last year GN from what I read, Christmas last year was only about 80cm. If it rains well there are heaps of other exciting activities in the area. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted December 26, 2007 Author Share Posted December 26, 2007 We only have 90cm in the village atm ASB so it's not all that much difference at all... This year came a little earlier and we've had better snow quality than last year but in total depth by the end of the month don't think there'll be all that much difference. Halfmachine, think we might wait couple more days to see how the forecasts firm up before predicting freezing levels. Link to post Share on other sites
Kingofmyrrh 0 Posted December 26, 2007 Share Posted December 26, 2007 If I check other sites like Yahoo Japan weather (I'm hoping it's OK to post this link as it's just for informational purposes) http://weather.yahoo.co.jp/weather/jp/leisure/ski/1b/11717.html then it seems OK (wet snow followed by dry snow). Are they just overly optimistic? Is there some resource where I can learn to read weather maps? I just about figured out how to read charts for surfing but I wouldn't have a clue for snow or other weather informaion. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted December 26, 2007 Author Share Posted December 26, 2007 King in the chart above you can see the bold 540 line. Very basically this line shows the freezing level at around 1400-1500m. So on that chart you can see that the freezing level at Niseko will be above the top of Mt Annupuri, indicating that it would definitely rain at lower levels. We're all hoping that the major part of the precipitation won't hit until the colder air starts moving over the region. Link to post Share on other sites
Yuki's Passion 1 Posted December 26, 2007 Share Posted December 26, 2007 that sucks to hear GN. we should all start burning our old skis and pray to ullr eh? Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted December 26, 2007 Author Share Posted December 26, 2007 These systems can be tricky to forecast. If they track just slightly differently it can make all the difference between a huge dump and rain. Just checked and now they are forecasting the cold air to come a little earlier so maybe a little rain to begin with from later on Saturday but hopefully rapidly turning to snow by Sunday. Link to post Share on other sites
Ewok 2 1 Posted December 27, 2007 Share Posted December 27, 2007 mina-sama, pray for snow Link to post Share on other sites
skidaisuki 0 Posted December 27, 2007 Share Posted December 27, 2007 Go Native - thanks as ever for your informed updates. I'm spending the next week in Hakuba and all the weather forecasts I have seen are talking about lower temperatures and snow from Saturday / Sunday. Could this be a rare case where Hokkaido gets rain and Honshu gets snow? That's not how I interpret the charts, but I trust your judgement more than my own... Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted December 27, 2007 Author Share Posted December 27, 2007 The colder air will probably hit down south earlier than up here. As the air is circulating anticlockwise around the low pressure sytem the warm air will still be pushing up into Hokkaido as the cooler air is moving across Honshu. As the system moves further east and strengthens in the Pacific then we'll see the classic winter setup with a low off NE Hokkaido and high pressure over Siberia. The result will be a week or so of cold temps and lots of snow. Pretty much everywhere might see a little rain out of this system but the snow following will more than make up for it. Link to post Share on other sites
Kingofmyrrh 0 Posted December 27, 2007 Share Posted December 27, 2007 Thnaks for the update! Care to stick your neck and have a guess at timing? Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted December 27, 2007 Author Share Posted December 27, 2007 Well here is the latest forecast from COLA for Saturday. You can see how there will be cooler air moving over Kyushu before it reaches northern Honshu. Timing is difficult as it all depends on exactly what course the system takes. Link to post Share on other sites
Kingofmyrrh 0 Posted December 27, 2007 Share Posted December 27, 2007 I can't identify that coastline as part of Japan... are my powers really that weak? Link to post Share on other sites
soubriquet 0 Posted December 27, 2007 Share Posted December 27, 2007 You have to look very hard to find Japan on that map. This is the one I use. The colour code shows the nature an amount of precipitation, and the red contours the height above sea level of 0C. As Go Native says, timing depends entirely on when the cold air mass moves across. Link to post Share on other sites
Kingofmyrrh 0 Posted December 27, 2007 Share Posted December 27, 2007 I see, that seems to make sense... it's like Pimp my Ride in here! So in essence the systems on your map will spin anticlockwise while moving to the East, now I understand why Hokkaido will get snow last this time. This is informative! Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Pow 52 Posted December 28, 2007 Share Posted December 28, 2007 Snowing lightly at village level since 9am this morning. Too cold for rain at the moment. Link to post Share on other sites
RobinsonAus 0 Posted December 28, 2007 Share Posted December 28, 2007 how much snow has fallen throughout the day in the village? Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Pow 52 Posted December 28, 2007 Share Posted December 28, 2007 5cm Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted December 28, 2007 Share Posted December 28, 2007 Snow from Sunday here in Niigata hopefully. PLEASE!!! Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted December 28, 2007 Author Share Posted December 28, 2007 Forecast keeps getting better and better. They are now not forecasting rain to fall on Sat. The forecast has a little snow Friday night and easing to just a cloudy afternoon on Sat. Here's hoping! Link to post Share on other sites
scottr6675 0 Posted December 28, 2007 Share Posted December 28, 2007 stooooooked!!! heading to Niseko tommorrow and been checking this thread daily like the obsessive person i am...thanks to all who take the time to put the weather stuff up... Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted December 28, 2007 Author Share Posted December 28, 2007 snowluvva it won't be the legendary Niseko powder until next week. Just have a little patience and by mid week it should be awesome. Link to post Share on other sites
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