World Cup 2010

[thursday 1]

I say bring back Pele

[bobby12 0]

Ronaldinho is still decent - I think it must be a statement or a personality thing from Dunga.

[2pints-mate 0]

I think I heard Ronaldinho was would be brought in if there were any injuries to the main bunch. Don't know how it works but that seemed to be the jist of it.

[thursday 1]

he can't be brought in if he's not in the final 23.

[Tubby Beaver 209]

yeah but at the mo teams can announce a preliminary squad of up to 30, to be trimmed down to 23 by a pre-determined date in the future.....Dunga maybe has them on standby

[thursday 1]

The date for final 23 is June 1. But Dunga has cut the crap and named his 23:

 

Goalies: Julio Cesar, Gomes, Doni

 

Defense: Maicon, Dani Alves, Lucio, Juan, Luisao, Thiago Silva, Michel Bastos, Gilberto

 

Midfield: Kaka, Gilberto Silva, Felipe Melo, Elano, Ramires, Kleberson, Julio Baptista, Josue

 

Forward: Luis Fabiano, Robinho, Nilmar, Grafite

[bobby12 0]

ronaldinho > robinho

[thursday 1]

A bit of old tosh I believe, but keeps us occupied until kickoff:

 

Quote:

 

Why Brazil will win the World Cup

 

UBS bankers have used a mathematical model to predict the champions of the South Africa 2010 World Cup – and say England and Spain have just 4pc chance of winning.

 

 

Brazil, who have claimed the trophy a record five times, are the likely winners this summer, with 22pc probability of victory, the Swiss investment bank said.

 

The UBS Wealth Management team found Spain, the European champions and bookmakers' favourite, to have just a 4pc shot at the title. Fabio Capello's England also have just a 4pc chance, it said.

 

"Football fans may feel that the European champions and firm fans favourite Spain is under-rated by the UBS model," the bank's global equity research team said in its World Cup 2010 research paper on Wednesday.

 

"And our local UK readers may feel the same about England’s chances. However, both teams have tended to be underachievers when it comes to the World Cup finals themselves. In the last three events, Spain and England were ranked amongst the strongest teams but did not make it beyond the quarter-final stage.

 

"Brazil has the highest probability [of winning]."

 

UBS used its "econometric toolbox and quantitative models" to forecast the winner based on factors including historic results and the teams' current "Elo ratings" – which take account of not only recent wins, losses and defeats, but the conditions under which those events occurred. Beating a powerhouse like Brazil or Spain would improve a team’s Elo ranking much more than beating a smaller side like Malta or Andorra.

 

The bank also believes World Cup hosts South Africa, despite their uninspiring recent form, are all but guaranteed a place in the second round, rating their chances at 78pc.

 

Brazil are the second most likely to progress with 74pc. The country least likely to progress, with a probability of just 29pc, is Paraguay, UBS said.

 

England were rated 63pc likely to escape the group stage and 21pc guaranteed to reach the semi-finals.

 

The UBS model was applauded in 2006 when it selected the winner, Italy. The bankers also correctly predicted 13 of the final 16, six of the final eight, and two of the semi-finalists.

 

However, when using the model for the 2008 European Championship, the forecast winner did not make it to the second round. "The moral of the story is that one needs to be humble about the predictive power of one’s model," the Wealth Management team said.

 

 

UBS's predicted quarter-finalists

 

Country

Likelihood of winning World Cup 2010

 

Brazil

22pc

 

Germany

18pc

 

Italy

13pc

 

Netherlands

8pc

 

France

6pc

 

Argentina

5pc

 

Spain

4pc

 

England

4pc

 

[Tubby Beaver 209]

Originally Posted By: thursday

A bit of old tosh I believe, but keeps us occupied until kickoff:

Quote:

Why Brazil will win the World Cup

UBS bankers have used a mathematical model to predict the champions of the South Africa 2010 World Cup – and say England and Spain have just 4pc chance of winning.



Brazil, who have claimed the trophy a record five times, are the likely winners this summer, with 22pc probability of victory, the Swiss investment bank said.

The UBS Wealth Management team found Spain, the European champions and bookmakers' favourite, to have just a 4pc shot at the title. Fabio Capello's England also have just a 4pc chance, it said.

"Football fans may feel that the European champions and firm fans favourite Spain is under-rated by the UBS model," the bank's global equity research team said in its World Cup 2010 research paper on Wednesday.

"And our local UK readers may feel the same about England’s chances. However, both teams have tended to be underachievers when it comes to the World Cup finals themselves. In the last three events, Spain and England were ranked amongst the strongest teams but did not make it beyond the quarter-final stage.

"Brazil has the highest probability [of winning]."

UBS used its "econometric toolbox and quantitative models" to forecast the winner based on factors including historic results and the teams' current "Elo ratings" – which take account of not only recent wins, losses and defeats, but the conditions under which those events occurred. Beating a powerhouse like Brazil or Spain would improve a team’s Elo ranking much more than beating a smaller side like Malta or Andorra.

The bank also believes World Cup hosts South Africa, despite their uninspiring recent form, are all but guaranteed a place in the second round, rating their chances at 78pc.

Brazil are the second most likely to progress with 74pc. The country least likely to progress, with a probability of just 29pc, is Paraguay, UBS said.

England were rated 63pc likely to escape the group stage and 21pc guaranteed to reach the semi-finals.

The UBS model was applauded in 2006 when it selected the winner, Italy. The bankers also correctly predicted 13 of the final 16, six of the final eight, and two of the semi-finalists.

However, when using the model for the 2008 European Championship, the forecast winner did not make it to the second round. "The moral of the story is that one needs to be humble about the predictive power of one’s model," the Wealth Management team said.


UBS's predicted quarter-finalists

Country
Likelihood of winning World Cup 2010

Brazil
22pc

Germany
18pc

Italy
13pc

Netherlands
8pc

France
6pc

Argentina
5pc

Spain
4pc

England
4pc

not ALL your UK readers!!

[thursday 1]

I'd thought Argentina would be higher up than Germany.

[klingon 10]

Who's going to win then?

 

We need a poll. Anyone got the time to make it?

[thursday 1]

two words: Brazil

[cal 6]

Don't you mean Brazil / Spain?

[thursday 1]

no, Spain is one word.

[thursday 1]

"Fabio Capello says that when he took over as England manager he inherited a group of players who were "switched off" and "scared", but believes his remedial work has been so successful that it would be a personal failure if they do not reach the World Cup final."

 

Setting yourself up or what.

[scouser 4]

Reality surely must sink in soon.

[Tubby Beaver 209]

I need 3 words....

 

A.B.E

[bobby12 0]

I really wonder if all the %'s in that UBS model add up to 100.

[thursday 1]

the predicted final 8 add upto 80. Leaving 20% for the other possibles.

 

Still think Argentina should be above Germany.

[klingon 10]

Originally Posted By: bobby12

I really wonder if all the %'s in that UBS model add up to 100.

???
What are we refering to here?

[thursday 1]

This

 

Originally Posted By: thursday

A bit of old tosh I believe, but keeps us occupied until kickoff:

 

Quote:

 

Why Brazil will win the World Cup

 

UBS bankers have used a mathematical model to predict the champions of the South Africa 2010 World Cup – and say England and Spain have just 4pc chance of winning.

 

 

Brazil, who have claimed the trophy a record five times, are the likely winners this summer, with 22pc probability of victory, the Swiss investment bank said.

 

The UBS Wealth Management team found Spain, the European champions and bookmakers' favourite, to have just a 4pc shot at the title. Fabio Capello's England also have just a 4pc chance, it said.

 

"Football fans may feel that the European champions and firm fans favourite Spain is under-rated by the UBS model," the bank's global equity research team said in its World Cup 2010 research paper on Wednesday.

 

"And our local UK readers may feel the same about England’s chances. However, both teams have tended to be underachievers when it comes to the World Cup finals themselves. In the last three events, Spain and England were ranked amongst the strongest teams but did not make it beyond the quarter-final stage.

 

"Brazil has the highest probability [of winning]."

 

UBS used its "econometric toolbox and quantitative models" to forecast the winner based on factors including historic results and the teams' current "Elo ratings" – which take account of not only recent wins, losses and defeats, but the conditions under which those events occurred. Beating a powerhouse like Brazil or Spain would improve a team’s Elo ranking much more than beating a smaller side like Malta or Andorra.

 

The bank also believes World Cup hosts South Africa, despite their uninspiring recent form, are all but guaranteed a place in the second round, rating their chances at 78pc.

 

Brazil are the second most likely to progress with 74pc. The country least likely to progress, with a probability of just 29pc, is Paraguay, UBS said.

 

England were rated 63pc likely to escape the group stage and 21pc guaranteed to reach the semi-finals.

 

The UBS model was applauded in 2006 when it selected the winner, Italy. The bankers also correctly predicted 13 of the final 16, six of the final eight, and two of the semi-finalists.

 

However, when using the model for the 2008 European Championship, the forecast winner did not make it to the second round. "The moral of the story is that one needs to be humble about the predictive power of one’s model," the Wealth Management team said.

 

 

UBS's predicted quarter-finalists

 

Country

Likelihood of winning World Cup 2010

 

Brazil

22pc

 

Germany

18pc

 

Italy

13pc

 

Netherlands

8pc

 

France

6pc

 

Argentina

5pc

 

Spain

4pc

 

England

4pc

 

[thursday 1]

Brilliant. Nice one Fergie

 

Quote:

Owen Hargreaves was dropped from Fabio Capello’s provisional World Cup squad on the day it was announced after a last-ditch intervention from Sir Alex Ferguson.

 

The Manchester United manager bumped into Capello at the League Managers Association dinner in London on Monday night and on discovering that the Italian was planning to take Hargreaves to Austria, told him the player was not ready for a call-up.

 

“Owen Hargreaves has not had enough football, you couldn’t possibly have picked him and that was always straight forward,†Ferguson has since said.

 

Hargreaves has barely played a minute of competitive football after 18 months out with knee injuries but sources at the Football Association have revealed that Capello was planning to take him to the Alpine training camp in Irdning as a wild card.

 

It is a testament to Ferguson’s influence, and the strength of his relationship with Capello, that the normally flinty Italian allowed himself to be dissuaded.

 

In November 2008, Capello insisted that Steven Gerrard report to the team hotel to be assessed by the England medical staff despite Liverpool claiming he had injured a groin muscle in his previous game.

 

It was a clear statement that Capello would not be pushed around by the clubs. In this instance, however, he has decided to trust Ferguson’s judgment.

 

It was reported last week that Hargreaves stormed away from Old Trafford after being left out of the squad to face Stoke City on the final day of the season, denying him the chance to prove he was ready for inclusion in the England provisional squad.

 

The player left 50 minutes before kick-off after being excluded from the 18-man squad, with United claiming it was due to illness. He was spotted driving away from the ground in his grey Audi at 3.10pm.

 

There has been some concern within the England management team about the information they have been receiving from Old Trafford about the fitness of their England players and will perform their own assessments after arriving in Austria tomorrow.

 

With Gareth Barry’s ankle injury all but ruling him out there is a shortage of cover in central midfield. Scott Parker of West Ham was called up and Capello felt it was worth gambling on the fitness of Hargreaves rather than opting for Jermaine Jenas of Tottenham or Hull’s Jimmy Bullard.

 

Capello met with his team on Tuesday morning and after much discussion it was decided that Hargreaves would no longer be included and that Barry would be included as the wild card instead, even though the England manager had all but ruled him out the previous evening.

 

Barry’s case was helped when the final assessment on his ankle ligament damage was brought forward from May 30 to 24 giving Capello more to time to assess his readiness.

 

The England squad leaves for Austria on Monday and play Mexico in a friendly back at Wembley on May 24 and Japan in Graz on June 30. The final 23-man squad is announced on June 1.

[grungy-gonads 54]

Quote:

Hargreaves has barely played a minute of competitive football after 18 months out with knee injuries but sources at the Football Association have revealed that Capello was planning to take him to the Alpine training camp in Irdning as a wild card.

It's just too funny.

[grungy-gonads 54]

Quote:

WORLD CUP 2010: Michael Ballack heartbreak as Germany captain is ruled out of finals with ankle injury picked up in Chelsea FA Cup win

It couldn't have happened to a nicer chap really could it.

[thursday 1]

Now now, Ballack deserves all the injuries he gets.