250-year cooling period ahoy, yey!

[igloo 3]

Forget global warming – the Earth may soon be plunged into a 250-year cooling period, scientists have claimed.

 

Russian climate experts believe that every 200 years the Sun’s activity temporarily wanes and it emits less heat.

 

They believe this ‘cooling period’ could cause the earth’s average temperature to fall by several degrees.

 

The last time this occurred was between 1650 and 1850 – a period known as the ‘Little Ice Age’.

 

At the time, most of Britain’s rivers would freeze over during the bitter winters.

 

Contemporary paintings show people could even cross the Thames using ice skates.

 

Hopefully this would see the Emergency Telephone Box totally covered along with (even more) bottomless conditions!

 

 

 

[grungy-gonads 54]

What do you think, Go Native and snowdude?

[Chriselle 158]

Haha....GG....

 

[Go Native 70]

What do you think, Go Native and snowdude?

 

Hope it happens! The last time this occurred was a very low period in sunspots and incoming insolation from the sun. It was called the Maunder Minimum if you want to read up on it at all. Whether we enter a period as low as that will remain to be seen. Solar insolation has been decreasing since the early 1980's and yet temperatures have risen considerably since then. 2000-2009 was the warmest decade yet recored worldwide. Although another solar minimum would undoubtedly have a significant negative forcing on temperatures the positive forcing from the higher concentrations of CO2 may completely counter it. This of course assumes another minimum similar to the Maunder Minimum actually occurs. I would like to see who these supposed scientists are and any of the papers they've published before giving this article much credence at all. I suspect the article quoted is probably from some Murdoch tabloid or something similar.

[Alexander L 80]

[seemore 66]

Winter is Coming

 

The Maesters think that the Margs, Whitewalkers and the Others will come from beyond the wall.

And Danerys Stormborn will conquer with the 3 headed dragon

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=189NzdB1P14

[snowdude 44]

Did I not say a new ice age would start in 2014 or 2015?

 

[Go Native 70]

You've been saying it for about the last 5 years snowdude and keep putting it back year after year. You'll probably still be saying in 2030 that'll it'll be going to happen in 2031 or 2032.

As you can see from the following graph not one year since 1976 has averaged below the 20th century average. If we have a sustained period of years averaging back below the 20th century average maybe, just maybe we can talk about a significant cooling event.

 

 

 

 

The top 10 warmest years ever recorded have all been recorded since 1998 and all except 1998 since 2000. We hardly appear to be on the brink of an ice age.

 

 

[Chriselle 158]

The floor is yours Snowdude.....

[cal 6]

Yes, what do you think snowdude?

[pie-eater 207]

[Chriselle 158]

He's busy digging out the heavy hitting artillery there Cal...

[Go Native 70]

What I love about the denialists is how they claim there'll be major changes to our climate due to quite minor changes in solar insolation but won't accept there'd be any effect at all of nearly doubling the concentraton of one of the main 'greenhouse' gases in our atmosphere. The lack of logic is quite astounding. Either our climate is very sensitive to the forcings that drive it or it's not. They can't have it both ways.

[snowdude 44]

Like I said before GN cant comprehend English well. I said a new ice age would start in 2014 or 15 and have not changed the dates as he wrongly mentioned.

And I still stick with the same dates.

Maybe GN should go live in Europe or talk to people living there and see if they think the earth has been warming I dont think he will be greeted with a very happy response.

 

Even once the new ice age starts which actually some say has already started and as the earth freezees he will still say I am wrong.

[Alexander L 80]

[Go Native 70]

Snowdude as always you confuse weather with climate and confuse regional anomalies with global ones. Always the same failed comprehension of what climate is and that we're talking long term trends not seasonal, regional anomalies. Being completely uneducated in any science, let alone climate science, does explain your initial miscomprehension but doesn't really explain why you continue to make the same mistakes even after they have been pointed out to you so many times previously by more than just myself.

[snowdude 44]

Snowdude as always you confuse weather with climate and confuse regional anomalies with global ones. Always the same failed comprehension of what climate is and that we're talking long term trends not seasonal, regional anomalies. Being completely uneducated in any science, let alone climate science, does explain your initial miscomprehension but doesn't really explain why you continue to make the same mistakes even after they have been pointed out to you so many times previously by more than just myself.

 

I would hardly call almost all of Europe, north America, Canada, Russia and China regional anomalies would you?

The last 3 years have been getting colder in many places

England has been especially cold and for the last 3 years has had nothing but cold, wet, snowy weather with temps well below what they should be.

Except for March last year which was way above average, the rest of the year was well down, with temps typically in the teens throughout summer.

 

Isn't New Zealand colder than normal for this type of year?

 

It is May now and places that should be warm now are still cold, Spain had snow last week, which is very, very rare for this time of year.

Oh Greece also had heavy snow this year, it is normally mildish there in winter and until recent years didn't get snow!

Texas, isn't that usually a warm area, they are getting very cold weather still, had lots of snow as well.

 

Ireland which usually doesn't get much snow or real cold did this year again.

 

The southern Isle of England got hammered by heavy snow, something that is actually rare for those areas being much further south.

I could keep on, but there are too many cold records that have been broken this year, especially in Europe and across large parts of Canada and the US to list here!

 

The thing is these regional/seasonal anomalies that you go on about are happening every year now and becoming more widespread every year, and they are almost all on the cold side not the warm.

 

Interestingly although it is only the beginning of May of course and will warm up somewhat, but so far the night temps here in Kofu are running 5oC below average and the day time about 3.5oC despite most days being sunny!

 

Jan, Feb and April for Yamanashi were all below average temps this year.

 

As I have explained to you before. but I guess it is too much to understand..... Co2 has been rising in recently years and the temps in the last three years have started to fall and will continue to fall.

I have also mentioned that during the last ice age and ice ages before that Co2 levels were higher than now and they were lower than now when it was warmer.

 

Manmade green house gases is a dead issue with regards to warming the planet!!!! It is the biggest load of bollocks ever!

 

Anyway enjoy your short lived warmist belief, it will soon come to a big icy end for you!!!!!!

[Go Native 70]

Again everything you've posted there is weather not climate. You continually fail to grasp the difference. And everything you're pointing to is regional rather than global. I mean something like 'isn't New Zealand colder than normal for this type of year?' means what in terms of global climate change? Do you think that global warming is supposed to mean completely uniform and constant warming throughout all parts of the globe equally and linearly through time? Is it supposed to mean that all natural climate variations and cycles completely cease to exist? Have you never heard of cycles like the AO or PDO or AMO, ENSO or NAO? Did you miss the part of climate science that for decades now has been telling us that climate would become more extreme as it changes? That there would be much greater fluctuations? You just don't get it do you? I know why. It's because you know nothing of the science. Nothing at all. You mention previous CO2 levels and yet don't seem to comprehend how previous levels are excellent evidence for why we link CO2 levels to temperature today. As usual you end your little tirades of nonsense with a dismissal of the science that you don't even come close to understanding. Not even the basics. Further proving what an utter moron you are.

Still not one year since 1976 has averaged below the 20th century average temperature. There would need to be seriously significant global cooling to just get us back to that average. There's no reason currently to think that is likely to happen at all except the musings of a Russian astrophysicist (who doesn't work in climate science) who is a well known climate sckeptic. I can find scientists on the internet who disagree that smoking causes cancer. Doesn't mean I believe them anymore than I'm likely to believe this Russian.

[snowdude 44]

I would really like to see all this so called peer reviewed graphs and data etc that you base your arguments on because to date it has been all talk from you but NOTHING to show.

 

And even if your house was buried under 20 feet of snow you would still say the earth is warming.

 

And as you so rightly point out many times that climate and weather are different would it also not be correct that the weather is thr result of the climate?

 

If so if the earth gets colder weather , would that not be the result of the climate?

 

Surely colder weather is caused by a colder climate and warmer weather is caused or a result of a warmer climate?

 

Because I would not expect colder weather if the climate

was warmer.

 

Recently the weather across the globe is getting colder not just in one or two places but in many many places with recently very few hot records being broken.

 

So are the regular cold weather events caused by colder or warmer climate?

 

And the climate is unstable which I have explained many times before which is most probably caused by the change in climate from a warmer one to a colder one.

 

Think you know science and I dont I would really like to sit down with you for 5 and gives you some physics or engineering formulas and see how quickly you dont get the answers.

 

 

[Dunga 1]

Just for the record, Australia has just had the hottest summer on record, it's also had the hottest autumn so far. The weather authority here just had to add a new temperature range as some parts of the country were outside of the hottest possible range.

 

But that doesn't mean that it's not a one off fluke...

[Go Native 70]

I would really like to see all this so called peer reviewed graphs and data etc that you base your arguments on because to date it has been all talk from you but NOTHING to show.

 

And even if your house was buried under 20 feet of snow you would still say the earth is warming.

 

And as you so rightly point out many times that climate and weather are different would it also not be correct that the weather is thr result of the climate?

 

If so if the earth gets colder weather , would that not be the result of the climate?

 

Surely colder weather is caused by a colder climate and warmer weather is caused or a result of a warmer climate?

 

Because I would not expect colder weather if the climate

was warmer.

 

Recently the weather across the globe is getting colder not just in one or two places but in many many places with recently very few hot records being broken.

 

So are the regular cold weather events caused by colder or warmer climate?

 

And the climate is unstable which I have explained many times before which is most probably caused by the change in climate from a warmer one to a colder one.

 

Think you know science and I dont I would really like to sit down with you for 5 and gives you some physics or engineering formulas and see how quickly you dont get the answers.

 

Here you just show your complete ignorance of climate science. All you do is cherry pick a few events each year and attempt to mesh these together into some indication of a trend. The problem is that you are only looking at regional anomalies and not the global climate as a whole. Sure some places for instance had a cold March this year. This is to do with the position of the predominant weather systems and the jet stream and changes in northern hemisphere climatic cycles like the AO and PDO. So whilst western Europe and northern parts of Russia and part of Nth America had a colder than average March other places had far warmer than average like most of the -stans (Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, etc) and the Tibetan Plateau Mongolia and all of China most of Africa and Australia. 'The globally-averaged temperature across the world's land and ocean surfaces was 0.58°C (1.04°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.7°C (54.9°F), tying with 2006 as the 10^th warmest March since records began in 1880. Both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres were also 10^th warmest for March.' Although yes some areas were cooler many were warmer as you can see in the following graphical representation of temperature percentiles for March. Quite large areas recording the warmest March on record. This is what you completely ignore.

 

 

The real point though is that anomalies on a monthly basis mean little in isolation. I'm pretty sure though without actually looking it up that it's been more than 30 years since any monthly global anomaly has been below the 20th century average. That's indicative of a trend. If in 30 years time most months are averaging below the 20th century average then sure we could say we have a significant cooling trend. Of course we're nowhere near that currently. So your main problems snowdude is that you cherry pick short term, regional anomalies and attempt to make out an argument for a cooling trend. It just doesn't work like that. You're wrong. Completely and utterly.

 

This graph illustrates the another mistake people like you make

 

[snowdude 44]

OMG!!!! That is the best that you can come up with one shitty graph and March temperature diagram. tut tut tut!!!! My daughter could produce better, much better and she is only 10!

 

And I was not talking about only March I was talking about the entire winter and spring being colder than average and more snowy than average across large parts of the globe not isolated spots.

 

I noticed you chose March as your data, even though we know that March, for Japan as well as other places too was one of the hottest on record, but that was just one month!

Dec, Jan, Feb, April and so far May is below average in many countries around the world!

 

For several countries the temps have been below average for the last three years!!!!

 

I think they should have a warmist day or something, then we can dedicate it to you, let you have your day of fame. lol lol!

 

Anyway your gibberish is nothing but an annoyance so I will continue to ignore you again from now.

[Go Native 70]

I could show a similar graph from any month or year you choose snowdude. Go ahead choose any month in the last decade. Choose any year in the last few decades and let's see if any of them average below the 20th century average. And that graph is put out by NOAA. You know the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration? One of the most respected climate science institutions in the world. Your 10 year old could really do better than that?

 

Last few winters?

 

2009/10 winter

 

Dec 09 - The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for December 2009 was 0.49°C (0.88°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.2°C (54.0°F). This is the eighth warmest December on record.

Jan 10 - The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for January 2010 was 0.60°C (1.08°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.0°C (53.6°F). This is the fourth warmest January on record.

Feb 10 - The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for February 2010 was 0.60°C (1.08°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.1°C (53.9°F). This is the sixth warmest such value on record.

 

The 3 main months of winter all within the top 10 warmest months respectively ever recorded since records began in 1880.

 

2010/11 winter

 

Dec 10 - The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for December 2010 was 0.37°C (0.67°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.2°C (54.0°F). This tied with 1982 and 1994 as the 17^th warmest December on record.

Jan 11 - The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for January 2011 was 0.38°C (0.68°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.0°C (53.6°F). This is the 17^th warmest January on record.

Feb 11 - The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for February 2011 was 0.40°C (0.72°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.1°C (53.9°F). This ties for the 17^th warmest such value on record.

 

Cooler than the previous winter but still the 17th warmest out of over 130 years of records putting it well above the 20th century average.

 

2011/12 winter

 

Dec 11 - The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for December 2011 was 0.48°C (0.86°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.2°C (54.0°F). This tied with 1987 and 2004 as the 10^th warmest December on record.

Jan 12 - The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for January 2012 was the 19^th warmest on record at 12.35°C (54.23°F), which is 0.35°C (0.63°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.0°C (53.6°F). The margin of error associated with this temperature is +/- 0.08°C (0.14°F). This January is the coolest of all months on record since February 2008. However, it also marks the 26^th January and 323^rd consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20^th century average. The last month with below average temperatures was February 1985.

Feb 12 - The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for February 2012 was the 22^nd warmest on record and the coolest since 2008, at 12.47°C (54.57°F), which is 0.37°C (0.67°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.1°C (53.9°F).

 

A warm start in Dec but cooler in Jan and Feb. Still both months well above the 20th century average continuing the unbroken run of above average months.

 

2012/13 winter

 

Dec 12 - The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for December 2012 was the 18^th warmest December since records began in 1880, at 0.41°C (0.74°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.2°C (54.0°F).

Jan 13 - The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for January 2013 tied with 1995 as the ninth warmest January since records began in 1880, at 0.54°C (0.97°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.0°C (53.6°F).

Feb 13 - The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for February 2013 tied with 2003 as the ninth warmest on record, at 0.57°C (1.03°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.1°C (53.9°F).

 

2 of the 3 months within the top 10 warmest months respectively ever recorded.

 

This is your signs of cooling? And you call what I say gibberish?

[ippy 66]

oooh oooh! i like that graph. If he doesnt pick one, can i just so i can look at another one without having to find it myself?

 

Hows about... ummm... lets stick around recent history since thats the whole climate change point. Lets pick one from three from autumn? I has no horse in this race (though if im honest, im going with science community and assuming they arent bullshitting and because id honestly doubt my capacity to argue against it - i dont think they listen to arguments along the lines of "but what do you MEAN when you say climate CHANGE?" by philosophy graduates to test their theories) so no cherry picking on my part.

 

September 2010.

November 2012 because that was pretty snowy in japan.

October 2008.

 

What is this average by the way? It seems odd if its always above average. (ETA: I could just scroll up and read... but ya know... id rather make the following cute point): That's like everyone i know EVER having an IQ above 100 (and they always do!). It makes things confusing if its a bell curve. Lets have the very first mainly blue map you can find

[Go Native 70]

Their graphs have changed a little over time.

 

Sept 2010. Here they've taken an average of temps from 1971-2000 (30 years) as the base to determine the anomalies. .

 

The combined global land and ocean surface temperature for September 2010 was 0.50°C (0.90°F) above the 20^th century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F) and tied with 1998 as the eighth warmest on record. September 2005 is the warmest September on record.

 

Nov 2012

 

By 2012 they are have started using the base 30 year period of 1981-2010. The important thing here is that 1981-2010 would be the warmest 30 year period on record. So if the anomalies are still continuing to be positive year after year then you know that it is continuing to warm.

 

The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for November 2012 was 0.67°C (1.21°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.9°C (60.4°F). This is the fifth warmest November since records began in 1880. Including this November, the 10 warmest Novembers have occurred in the past 12 years.

 

 

 

 

Oct 2008

 

Back in 2008 they were using the average temp from a base period of 1961-1990.

 

October 2008 ranked as the second warmest October since records began in 1880 for combined global land and ocean surface temperatures, behind 2003.

 

 

Importantly here is we can see that they aren't just choosing any old base period of temps to determine the anomaly. So they aren't just choosing a period in the 20th century that was below the 20th century average to artifically skew the anomalies higher. They keep moving the 30 year base period forward so that all the more recent warmer temperatures are included in the average which the anomalies are determined from. This is important so we can see if things are continuing to warm or not.