250-year cooling period ahoy, yey!

[snowdude 44]

I cant be bothered talking to GN anymore .

He thinks he knows everything there is aboit climate and weather.

Trying to discuss anything with him is like talking to a 3 yeat old.

 

Even when half the earth is buried in snow he will still insist the earth is warmer or that warm causes cold which is the latest BS a lot of the warmists are saying .

 

So I really cant be hassled to waste my time anymore I have more important things to do.

 

Or you know that you can't offer a convincing evidence based counterargument so you are not going to even try. Basically, GN shot down your argument and you can't pick up the pieces. If you disagree, prove us wrong and write a rebuttal addressing the points in GN's post.

 

Also, you haven't replied to my post at the top of the page. So everyone can take that as an admission that there is no cooling trend.

 

It's okay everyone, snowdude is no longer claiming that the Earth's climate is cooling. Essentially, snowdudes argument makes two claims. First, the climate has cycled naturally in the past and the natural processes that caused this will continue to affect climate change. I think we can all agree with him on that point. Second, he was saying that the climate is currently cooling but then admitted he was basing this on data from the last three years and that this actually 'shows nothing.'

 

Now his data may be questionable and his conclusions dubious but even if we put that aside and just follow his reasoning, it shows that there is no evidence of a cooling trend. Data that can ‘show nothing’ can, you guessed it, show nothing.

 

Hint: If you are shooting yourself in the foot with your own argument, I would hesitate calling others 3 ‘yeat’ olds. Instead, you should change your username to noosedude to describe your incredible ability to tie nooses with your argument and then hang yourself with them (figuratively of course, please don't hang yourself).

 

I guess GN bit off more than he can chew when he realised that I will not just roll over and say oh yeah your right humans are making the earth warm.

 

So now I guess he has asked you to join in.

 

You like GN do not seem to comprehend English because no where have I said the earth is not cooling rathet I have been saying it is cooling.

 

In an earlier thread I produced tons of data explaining that the earth coo/s and warms in natural cycles and what influences these things.

 

Which is rather more than GN has done.

 

Anyway like I said I am fed up wasting my time with GN and that also goes for his side kicks.

 

 

[Go Native 70]

As I've said previously Beniswood it's no different than attempting to have a rational and logical debate about evolution with a creationist. Their arguments like snowdudes are not based on science. So attempting to use science (real science, rather than the pseudo-science they like to use) doesn't work. Rational, logical debate is impossible as their beliefs are not based on rational and logical thinking but on ideologies that have no basis in science. Snowdude doesn't know anything about climate science, he proves that with his every post. Especially the posts where he actually attempts to justify his beliefs. It's no different to his snow forecasts each year. At the end of every season he claims to have got it right. No matter how much you point out how wrong he actually got it and use data to show how wrong he got it he always continues to believe his forecast was accurate. You can't argue with someone so delusional. I'm past arguing with him. I just like to point out how ridiculous and unscientific his claims are for the benefit of others who take an interest in the subject.

 

And for those who were still in denial about the scientific concensus that humans are affecting climate a new study was released today confirming the concensus

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/may/16/climate-change-scienceofclimatechange

[Besniwod 6]

Holy sweaty polar bears Batman, these tights don't fit! I'm sorry Batman but I am going to give it one more go, ill fitting tights or no.

 

Sidekick antics aside, you have once again failed to address my questions. You don’t seem to follow what I am saying so let me lay it out for you again, even though I am repeating myself.

 

1. You are making two

separate

claims. First, the climate has cooled and warmed in the past and the effects of these natural cycles will continue. Second, the climate is currently cooling. Do you understand that these are two separate claims?

2. Cycles in the past cannot prove what is currently happening in the climate now, you need current weather data. Cycles in the past can be used to predict that further cycles will happen or that the same things that caused them will continue to affect the climate, but only current data can confirm whether the climate is actually warming or cooling. Do you understand?

3. You contradicted yourself by saying that a short period of weather data both means nothing and supports your claim. I challenged you on this but you failed to respond. I challenged you again and said that silence on the matter would mean you admit your data does not show a cooling trend. See the following:

 

The earth stopped cooling in about 2000 started cooling about 3 years ago so it will be at least 10 years before their will be enough years of cooling for record purposes.

 

Snowdude, if there needs to be 10 years of cooling for 'record purposes' (i.e. to show a trend), how do you know that the Earth is on a cooling trend after only three years, which by your own admission is not enough for 'record purposes.'

 

scientists are basing their results on a short 30 year period only with considering the eartj has been here for a few billiom years is not exactly an accurate assesment of temps or climate or weather rather it is totally meaningless.

 

You are basing your results on an even shorter period: 3 years. Does this not make your results even more inaccurate and meaningless than the scientists you criticise. You seem very capable of being critical of things you disagree with. How about you apply the same degree of critical thinking to your own beliefs?

 

I havent based my results on 3 years I have based mine on hundreds of thousands of years of how the earth has cycled between warmer and cooler to come to my conclusions.

 

The 3 years that I mention is not what I based my results on as it would of course show nothing.

What I stated is that the past 3 years in many parts of the globe but not everywhere of course have been colder which backs at my point that the earth is now in a state of cooling unless I see any drastic changes in the oother direction.

 

Hmm. You may base the fact that the climate cycles on thousands of years of data but you are claiming something separate to that. You are stating that the climate is currently cooling. You contradict yourself by first saying that 3 years of data 'would of course show nothing' and then go on to say that some parts of the Earth being colder in the 'past three years' backs up your 'point that the earth is in a state of cooling.' How can data from the past three years both mean nothing and back up your argument?

 

I am waiting for a response to my question. How can data from the last three years both ‘show nothing’ and support your claim that the Earth is in a state of cooling? Or should we take your silence on the matter as an admission that the last three years do not in fact show a cooling trend?

 

So you can only support your first claim when you say, “I havent based my results on 3 years I have based mine on hundreds of thousands of years of how the earth has cycled between warmer and cooler to come to my conclusions.” Your first claim agrees with the scientific consensus, so no controversy there. “Tons of data explaining that the earth coo/s and warms in natural cycles and what influences these things” cannot prove that the climate is currently cooling, your second claim. Your only attempt at offering current weather data is saying that the Earth "started cooling about 3 years ago." Now let me make my challenge again, how can data from the last three years both "mean nothing" and support your second claim that the climate is currently cooling?

[snowdude 44]

Holy sweaty polar bears Batman, these tights don't fit! I'm sorry Batman but I am going to give it one more go, ill fitting tights or no.

 

Sidekick antics aside, you have once again failed to address my questions. You don’t seem to follow what I am saying so let me lay it out for you again, even though I am repeating myself.

 

1. You are making two

separate

claims. First, the climate has cooled and warmed in the past and the effects of these natural cycles will continue. Second, the climate is currently cooling. Do you understand that these are two separate claims?

 

2. Cycles in the past cannot prove what is currently happening in the climate now, you need current weather data. Cycles in the past can be used to predict that further cycles will happen or that the same things that caused them will continue to affect the climate, but only current data can confirm whether the climate is actually warming or cooling. Do you understand?

 

3. You contradicted yourself by saying that a short period of weather data both means nothing and supports your claim. I challenged you on this but you failed to respond. I challenged you again and said that silence on the matter would mean you admit your data does not show a cooling trend. See the following:

 

 

The earth stopped cooling in about 2000 started cooling about 3 years ago so it will be at least 10 years before their will be enough years of cooling for record purposes.

 

Snowdude, if there needs to be 10 years of cooling for 'record purposes' (i.e. to show a trend), how do you know that the Earth is on a cooling trend after only three years, which by your own admission is not enough for 'record purposes.'

 

scientists are basing their results on a short 30 year period only with considering the eartj has been here for a few billiom years is not exactly an accurate assesment of temps or climate or weather rather it is totally meaningless.

 

You are basing your results on an even shorter period: 3 years. Does this not make your results even more inaccurate and meaningless than the scientists you criticise. You seem very capable of being critical of things you disagree with. How about you apply the same degree of critical thinking to your own beliefs?

 

I havent based my results on 3 years I have based mine on hundreds of thousands of years of how the earth has cycled between warmer and cooler to come to my conclusions.

 

The 3 years that I mention is not what I based my results on as it would of course show nothing.

What I stated is that the past 3 years in many parts of the globe but not everywhere of course have been colder which backs at my point that the earth is now in a state of cooling unless I see any drastic changes in the oother direction.

 

Hmm. You may base the fact that the climate cycles on thousands of years of data but you are claiming something separate to that. You are stating that the climate is currently cooling. You contradict yourself by first saying that 3 years of data 'would of course show nothing' and then go on to say that some parts of the Earth being colder in the 'past three years' backs up your 'point that the earth is in a state of cooling.' How can data from the past three years both mean nothing and back up your argument?

 

I am waiting for a response to my question. How can data from the last three years both ‘show nothing’ and support your claim that the Earth is in a state of cooling? Or should we take your silence on the matter as an admission that the last three years do not in fact show a cooling trend?

 

So you can only support your first claim when you say, “I havent based my results on 3 years I have based mine on hundreds of thousands of years of how the earth has cycled between warmer and cooler to come to my conclusions.” Your first claim agrees with the scientific consensus, so no controversy there. “Tons of data explaining that the earth coo/s and warms in natural cycles and what influences these things” cannot prove that the climate is currently cooling, your second claim. Your only attempt at offering current weather data is saying that the Earth "started cooling about 3 years ago." Now let me make my challenge again, how can data from the last three years both "mean nothing" and support your second claim that the climate is currently cooling?

 

 

I said the climate has been cooling for the past 3 years which is correct it has! Of course 3 years is not enough to determine the long term trend from now onwards. but as I don't have future data "obviously" I can only use what I got now and continue to add to it year by year.

 

But I said the climate is cooling will continue to cool and looking at the past 3 years it has cooled, whether it will continue on a cooling cycle in the near future only time will tell, but the past 3 years are certainly not showing a warming trend.

And 3 years doesn't prove what is going to happen in years to come, that is very true, but it does show what is happening now! Like you said about past data does not show what is happening now! Present data does show what is happening now at this time and that is that the earth has been cooling for 3 years!

 

When looking in the past we have plenty of data to be able to make trends, but obviously we can't have data for the future as we are not there yet so although it is not the best of situations, we can only look at present data and continue to collect data from coming years to see how things work out in coming years with cross referencing previous data!

 

At the moment the earth looks like it is cooling and if current trends continue then it will continue to cool!

[surfarthur 22]

[Go Native 70]

I'll post this again as it seems that snowdude doesn't get it

 

[snowdude 44]

Snowfall data from NOAA Rutger’s Snow Lab for April is in.

It ranked high enough to make the cold season (November 2012 to April 2013) average the HIGHEST in the record (back to 1966).

 

Must be all this "man made global warming melting all the snow" LOL making it snow the most on record since 1966!!!! LOL LOL!

 

 

 

 

[ippy 66]

I ****ing disbelieve! Ah wait, you mean the entire northern hemisphere and not the atrocious winter we just had in japan?

 

In summary:

 

November: earlier than expected (the week before the long weekend) and not so much rain so yay! it managed to squeek its way through without a restart.

December: Hmmm, still not much if im honest... A few small top ups, but nothing consistent. Fortunately often landed on the run up to the weekend.

January: BLEHHhhHHHHHHH!!!! Up until this year ive promoted the idea that january is a dead cert in nagano and feb is more iffy. Now i can add january to the iffy cards.

February: AWESOME!!! Best feb ive seen in my massive 6 seasons riding. Every weekend was a powder weekend. Not much snow where i was in chikuma (or even around nagano), but resorts were kicking.

March 1st: Umm, whys it suddenly raining?

Rest of march: This sucks. Wheres my snow?

April: Kinda hot out here. Seasons probably over. Jya ne japan!

[Tubby Beaver 209]

 

Scientists say the recent downturn in the rate of global warming will lead to lower temperature rises in the short-term.

Since 1998, there has been an unexplained "standstill" in the heating of the Earth's atmosphere.

 

Writing in Nature Geoscience, the researchers say this will reduce predicted warming in the coming decades.

 

But long-term, the expected temperature rises will not alter significantly.

 

Continue reading the main story

“Start Quote

The most extreme projections are looking less likely than before”

Dr Alexander OttoUniversity of Oxford

 

The slowdown in the expected rate of global warming has been studiedfor several years now. Earlier this year, the UK Met Office lowered their five-year temperature forecast.

 

But this new paper gives the clearest picture yet of how any slowdown is likely to affect temperatures in both the short-term and long-term.

 

An international team of researchers looked at how the last decade would impact long-term, equilibrium climate sensitivity and the shorter term climate response.

 

Transient nature

Climate sensitivity looks to see what would happen if we doubled concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere and let the Earth's oceans and ice sheets respond to it over several thousand years.

 

Transient climate response is much shorter term calculation again based on a doubling of CO2.

 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported in 2007 that the short-term temperature rise would most likely be 1-3C (1.8-5.4F).

 

But in this new analysis, by only including the temperatures from the last decade, the projected range would be 0.9-2.0C.

 

 

"The hottest of the models in the medium-term, they are actually looking less likely or inconsistent with the data from the last decade alone," said Dr Alexander Otto from the University of Oxford.

 

"The most extreme projections are looking less likely than before."

 

The authors calculate that over the coming decades global average temperatures will warm about 20% more slowly than expected.

 

But when it comes to the longer term picture, the authors say their work is consistent with previous estimates. The IPCC said that climate sensitivity was in the range of 2.0-4.5C.

Ocean storage

This latest research, including the decade of stalled temperature rises, produces a range of 0.9-5.0C.

 

"It is a bigger range of uncertainty," said Dr Otto.

 

"But it still includes the old range. We would all like climate sensitivity to be lower but it isn't."

 

The researchers say the difference between the lower short-term estimate and the more consistent long-term picture can be explained by the fact that the heat from the last decade has been absorbed into and is being stored by the world's oceans.

 

Not everyone agrees with this perspective.

 

Prof Steven Sherwood, from the University of New South Wales, says the conclusion about the oceans needs to be taken with a grain of salt for now.

 

"There is other research out there pointing out that this storage may be part of a natural cycle that will eventually reverse, either due to El Nino or the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and therefore may not imply what the authors are suggesting," he said.

 

The authors say there are ongoing uncertainties surrounding the role of aerosols in the atmosphere and around the issue of clouds.

 

"We would expect a single decade to jump around a bit but the overall trend is independent of it, and people should be exactly as concerned as before about what climate change is doing," said Dr Otto.

 

Is there any succour in these findings for climate sceptics who say the slowdown over the past 14 years means the global warming is not real?

 

"None. No comfort whatsoever," he said.

 

 

 

[Besniwod 6]

Thank you for finally answering my question. You are fumbling here though. All the comments about future data are irrelevant babble as we obviously can’t know the future. We can, however, predict what will happen based on current trends and climate models. As you have said, three years is not enough to show a trend. Why are you so fixated on basing everything on the last three years? Why not look at the last thirty? You know that you can’t make an accurate prediction based on just three years.

 

Also, by current data I mean the last 100 years or so as opposed to data from “hundreds of thousands of years” ago.

 

Your waffling just makes you come across as myopic and self-deceiving. I highly recommend you apply some critical thinking to your own ideas. Imagine if somebody wrote what you just wrote three years ago but was arguing for global warming:

 

I said the climate has been warming for the past 3 years which is correct it has! Of course 3 years is not enough to determine the long term trend from now onwards. but as I don't have future data "obviously" I can only use what I got now and continue to add to it year by year.

 

But I said the climate is warming will continue to warm and looking at the past 3 years it has warmed, whether it will continue on a warming cycle in the near future only time will tell, but the past 3 years are certainly not showing a cooling trend.

And 3 years doesn't prove what is going to happen in years to come, that is very true, but it does show what is happening now! Like you said about past data does not show what is happening now! Present data does show what is happening now at this time and that is that the earth has been warming for 3 years!

 

When looking in the past we have plenty of data to be able to make trends, but obviously we can't have data for the future as we are not there yet so although it is not the best of situations, we can only look at present data and continue to collect data from coming years to see how things work out in coming years with cross referencing previous data!

 

At the moment the earth looks like it is warming and if current trends continue then it will continue to warm!

 

Would you have found this person convincing?

[Go Native 70]

"We would expect a single decade to jump around a bit but the overall trend is independent of it, and people should be exactly as concerned as before about what climate change is doing," said Dr Otto.

 

Is there any succour in these findings for climate sceptics who say the slowdown over the past 14 years means the global warming is not real?

 

"None. No comfort whatsoever," he said.

 

Not stirring up all that much Tubby.

[Tubby Beaver 209]

Well they say that now.....they also said there would be incremental heating up year on year and they did t get that properly right...who knows if they really know anything

[Go Native 70]

Well they say that now.....they also said there would be incremental heating up year on year and they did t get that properly right...who knows if they really know anything

 

Who said that? So you believe that scientists claimed that heating would be evenly distributed and incremental year on year? Show me a scientific paper where any scientist has ever claimed that!

[surfarthur 22]

Snowfall data from NOAA Rutger’s Snow Lab for April is in.

It ranked high enough to make the cold season (November 2012 to April 2013) average the HIGHEST in the record (back to 1966).

 

Must be all this "man made global warming melting all the snow" LOL making it snow the most on record since 1966!!!! LOL LOL!

 

 

 

 

Do you understand the difference between precipitation and temperature snowdude?

[Tubby Beaver 209]

Well they say that now.....they also said there would be incremental heating up year on year and they did t get that properly right...who knows if they really know anything

 

Who said that? So you believe that scientists claimed that heating would be evenly distributed and incremental year on year? Show me a scientific paper where any scientist has ever claimed that!

 

I never said evenly distributed

[snowdude 44]

Its like just a few years ago scientists said England would get barbecue summers and that quote "children will not know what snow is in a few years".

 

When in reality England has had cold wet summers and vey cold snowy winters for the past three years.

 

So maybe they should have said "children will not know what summer is in a few years" then they

would have been more correct.

 

 

[Tubby Beaver 209]

Tbf children in England have probably never knew what summers are

[snowdude 44]

I see that it has been snowing in in parts of India.

Mmm. Isnt India supposed to be a hot place with no snow?

 

Wonder where it will snow next? Barbados?

 

All this global warming is great. If this is the result of global warming then wonder what it will be like with gobal cooling. Lol lol lol.

 

Bring it on I say!

 

[snowdude 44]

Tbf children in England have probably never knew what summers are

 

Yeah I think your right.

Must say I dont remember to many barbecue summers in the Uk either.

 

[surfarthur 22]

I see that it has been snowing in in parts of India.

Mmm. Isnt India supposed to be a hot place with no snow?

 

Wonder where it will snow next? Barbados?

 

All this global warming is great. If this is the result of global warming then wonder what it will be like with gobal cooling. Lol lol lol.

 

Bring it on I say!

You do realise that it snows in India every year, don't you? They have some very tall mountains in the north of India.

[snowdude 44]

I see that it has been snowing in in parts of India.

Mmm. Isnt India supposed to be a hot place with no snow?

 

Wonder where it will snow next? Barbados?

 

All this global warming is great. If this is the result of global warming then wonder what it will be like with gobal cooling. Lol lol lol.

 

Bring it on I say!

You do realise that it snows in India every year, don't you? They have some very tall mountains in the north of India.

 

Yes in the mountains.

But not in the lower mountain areas at this time of year which is what I was refering to.

 

[Go Native 70]

The reports I've seen say snowfall on higher areas. There were some light snow showers on the Rhotang Pass

Well they say that now.....they also said there would be incremental heating up year on year and they did t get that properly right...who knows if they really know anything

 

Who said that? So you believe that scientists claimed that heating would be evenly distributed and incremental year on year? Show me a scientific paper where any scientist has ever claimed that!

 

I never said evenly distributed

 

You did say incremental year on year. What did you mean by that?

 

Anyway the IPCC AR4 Climate models plotted against actual temperatures so far show that the models have been doing pretty damned well. The AR4 model runs are from 23 different global climate models which are run 118 times. Below the black dotted line is the average of all the runs and the red dotted line is actual observed temperatures. Considering all the variables I reckon they're doing an amazing job of accurately predicting what will happen into the future. All observed temperatures have fallen within the limits of forecast temperatures by the models.

 

[Alexander L 80]

Really cold tonight. Storms coming through too.

[Alexander L 80]

and arrived.

 

Massive thunderstorm right now. Hope the vagrants get back to their underpasses quickly.

[r45 4]

I really can't contribute anything to this thread without revealing my complete lack of knowledge, but.... it's sure interesting folks.