Go Native 70 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 It's not really about covering asses. It's not like their jobs are on the line if a forecast this far out doesn't pan out. It's just the figures their model spits out with the data they've input. As we get closer to the season they often get a little more sure one way or the other. Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 I was just about to say that, they are not covering bottoms here..... Link to post Share on other sites
RobBright 35 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 Didn't say they would lose their jobs did I? Simply said covering their arses - we're all looking at this data now and making assumptions from it aren't we? In so far to compare other people's predictions against it. Now if it is colder or snows more than average, then they will use that modelling in the future to predict future seasons. And vice versa. The trouble with it is that it can't be "wrong" as they have covered every outcome with a fairly balanced "prediction" hence the covering their arses comment. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 Well I'm not making any assumptions other than according to the JMA forecasting simulation they are currently weighting the probability in favour of average or below average snowfalls. They had forecast that September would have above average temps in Hokkaido and it looks like we will actually probably have slightly lower than average. They certainly can be wrong. Not too worried about this forecast just yet. If they are still forecasting below average by mid Nov and with higher probability then I might start to worry a little. Link to post Share on other sites
skidaisuki 0 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 Just as a matter of interest, can anyone tell us what the JMA season forecast for 2005-2006 was? For newer SJ-ers, that was the last truly epic season in Japan, and the best I've experienced here in 10 seasons: http://www.snowjapan.com/e/daily/hakuba-now-archive.php?month=12&year=2005 I suspect that the JMA were predicting average snowfalls that year, too... SdS Link to post Share on other sites
acpowman 0 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 Anyone know how Japan has fared for snow over the years when there's been an El-Nino in effect ? I know how it affects Canada & Nth America but not Japan, or maybe it doesn't have a major impact on whether Japan has a good or bad season ? Link to post Share on other sites
cram400 0 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 skisaisuki, JMA forecast for winter of '05 was above average temps and below average snowfall. acpowman, the effect of el nino to japan's winters, according to the JMA, is that temps are above average in western japan and okinawa, while temps in northern japan remain average.. el nino apparently affects the flow of the jet stream in a way that keeps the cold siberian air to the north and limits it from seeping down to the south.. here's the link (article is in japanese): http://www.data.kishou.go.jp/climate/cpdinfo/20th/box11.htm Link to post Share on other sites
NoFakie 45 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 Originally Posted By: skidaisuki Just as a matter of interest, can anyone tell us what the JMA season forecast for 2005-2006 was? For newer SJ-ers, that was the last truly epic season in Japan, and the best I've experienced here in 10 seasons: http://www.snowjapan.com/e/daily/hakuba-now-archive.php?month=12&year=2005 I suspect that the JMA were predicting average snowfalls that year, too... SdS That season though, only December was exceptional. Once the base was down, it was only normal after New Year, possibly worse. You can see it in the Now! reports with the depth falling in Jan (coldest month in Hakuba) and also in Feb. For the season as a whole, a forecast of higher temps may well have been correct. Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 That season was amazing late December/early January but it quickly warmed up if I remember correctly. It was just that first freaky bit that was a big story. Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 Beat me to it Mr Wiggles! Link to post Share on other sites
acpowman 0 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 thanks 4 the link mada Link to post Share on other sites
NoFakie 45 Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 In December that year, I came back from Okinawa to find a metre outside the house and it just didn't stop till after New Year. We lived next door to a vacant lodge and the snow that winter built up and up on it. It all came down when things warmed up in February. A whole dormer was pulled off the roof leaving a massive hole. Link to post Share on other sites
snowdude 44 Posted September 28, 2009 Author Share Posted September 28, 2009 I remember that year was in Niigata and saw several houses totally buried up to and above the roof. Some parts had so much snow that it was still hanging around on the ground in June / July when I went back there. Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted September 28, 2009 Share Posted September 28, 2009 that year, I was in Niseko for Christmas and CNY. 2 trips to heaven. Link to post Share on other sites
iiyamadude 6 Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 What a year! My friends cut off in their small village due to too much snow! Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 we're all sounding like bent old men Link to post Share on other sites
mikelowry 0 Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 Forecasts? Predictions? What we need around here is some certainty. Some guarantees. Some clarity. Number 1 certainty: There will be an absolute truckload more snow at Niseko than Perisher. If you can manage to have a good time at Perisher, you will be in damn near nirvana in Niseko. Number 2 certainty: You will not have to ski moguls if you choose not to. Number 3 certainty: According to the laws of diminishing marginal utility, you will only enjoy waist deep powder a tad more than knee deep and nip dip only a tad more than waist deep. Therefore, any powder at all (which I will offer with a money back guarantee) is still an excellent result! Lets all hope for neck deep though!!!!!!!!! Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 Certainty number 4. There will be lots of Aussies there having the time of their lives and rowdily letting everyone else know about it at the same time. Please god, keep those Aussies away from my hotel.. Please please. Link to post Share on other sites
HelperElfMissy 42 Posted September 29, 2009 Share Posted September 29, 2009 Originally Posted By: thursday Certainty number 4. There will be lots of Aussies there having the time of their lives and rowdily letting everyone else know about it at the same time. Please god, keep those Aussies away from my hotel.. Please please. Wouldnt ya just love to surround Thursday with Aussies - just for a laff? Certainty #5: Someone will always be having a whine about something. If it is puking down, someone will complain about visibility. If it is a bluebird day, someone will complain there was no fresh powder. If there is an Aussie accent behind the words "What an awesome day", Thursdays gonna complain. Link to post Share on other sites
seemore 66 Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 Where you stayin Thursday We can come visit Aussie Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 It's classified. I can tell you, but then I have to kill you. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 Pretty sure I know where you're staying thurs. I'll be sure to let everyone know to express their joy at being in Niseko nice and loudly as they go past Link to post Share on other sites
BagOfCrisps 24 Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 Brass band! + digereedoos however you spell that! Link to post Share on other sites
Oyuki kigan 0 Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 if i hear 暖冬　again i'm gonna flip and put a sleeper hold on the next person i see idling their engines Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 Absolutely no idea what 暖冬 is? Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts