ninjaB 0 Posted May 26, 2003 Share Posted May 26, 2003 OK a serious topic now. How do all you intelligents feel about the future of the Japanese economy. The time I have been here, I've seen it fall from the heights of the bubble (when businessmen were making decicions that no-one in their right mind would) to the pathetic stagnation and shrinking of the last 5 years or so. With some investments here and a love of the country (not to mention me living here a long time and being settled so to speak), I often wonder just where it is all going and can't see much to be optimistic about. Any thoughts? Link to post Share on other sites
DumbStick 13 Posted May 26, 2003 Share Posted May 26, 2003 What was it like back then in those bubble years then? The people I know in Japan are not too happy about things generally right now. There doesnt seem to be an end in sight. Link to post Share on other sites
miteyak 0 Posted May 26, 2003 Share Posted May 26, 2003 Well, the first thing a drinker must do before getting cured is say, "I'm an alcoholic" Did we hear those words today from the Japanese banks as they wrote off 40 billion in bad debts. Once companies and individuals admit they've lost, the banks become safe places to put your money (and not just the bankrolers of the high rolers), this country has every chance of a good turnaround. Enormous amounts of money are still held Hiro average, and if this can marry up with effiecient industries... As for me, I get a yearly pay rise and the cost of living is falling Yipee Link to post Share on other sites
miteyak 0 Posted May 26, 2003 Share Posted May 26, 2003 Did I mention the gray economy. Anyone living in Osaka may well wonder at the wonton disregard for the word 'recession' as new high rises appear on every corner. Not, traditionally, that is, a common symptom of hard times... Link to post Share on other sites
grungy-gonads 54 Posted May 26, 2003 Share Posted May 26, 2003 I've often wondered that - all the buildings going up in Tokyo too (Roppongi Hills being the latest to open up). Conflicting signs all round, but out in the locals, all the signs are not good. Link to post Share on other sites
scouser 4 Posted May 27, 2003 Share Posted May 27, 2003 Well the Japanese people I know are pretty much doom and gloom about everything all the time. Perhaps I should be getting happier friend? Link to post Share on other sites
oo 1 Posted May 27, 2003 Share Posted May 27, 2003 If only the banks would get sorted....... Link to post Share on other sites
Antonio 0 Posted May 27, 2003 Share Posted May 27, 2003 I'm generally positive....if the govt would just put the money into the banking system that it uses to build bridges to nowhere then we might just be able to balance things out.... Link to post Share on other sites
kintaro 0 Posted May 28, 2003 Share Posted May 28, 2003 I'm lazy today but got a couple of things to say on this. First, not optimistic in the next 5 years or more. Banks are a joke yet per capita savings are tops in the world. A1. Where is all the money? There's almost no such thing as personal investments in the financial markets...meanwhile banks dish out a tasty .oo1% interest rate (sarcasm there)on savings. On a day to day basis I dare anyone to tell me unjokingly that they don't see a labor force that is incredibly inefficient and unproductive. For a long time Japan lead all countries in hours logged at work (not anymore). Well, call it what you like but for "work" so much isn't getting done! Department stores are but one example. YOu've got a gazzilion lady's saying "irashaimaseeeeeeee." When you buy something two of 'em put your purchase in about 4 bags/wrappings, one handles the money, and yet a final hands you the end result and bows you on your way..all the while a couple others peer over the transaction simply on the side...kohai's maybe?? Hhhhhm, could be why depato's are so takai. China's growing up financially more every year and will soon lead Asia. My immediate sense is one of pessimism. Link to post Share on other sites
miteyak 0 Posted May 28, 2003 Share Posted May 28, 2003 It would be great for the govt to shore up the banks given a few provizo's •the guys that lost the money in the first place have been replaced •the money isn't going to just seep back into inefficicient monoliths Japan still has highly efficient sectors of industry, and people willing to break their backs for a living... i'm talking about small business. When the banks go bust, the big inefficient industries get saved, and the small efficient ones (the sub contractors) get hammered with bancruptcy as their loan is called in. Pretty much what screwed Hokkaido a few years back. It's easy to cite Japan as inefficient, but most of us have only encountered the beaurocratic side of life. The 'worker ants' are nearly invisible (and often trodden on) but they were are and will be the backbone of the Japanese economy. If these guys can get back credit lines, then the economy stands a chance. On the other growing economies in Asia, lets not forget where a lot of the capital for industry in China, Taiwan, Malaysia, etc comes from... My humble opinion, we've seen the worst, and things will slowly improve. Maybe the sticks will never really get back in the game (save as a growth market area for retirees) but i'd say money was getting well back into the big cities. Link to post Share on other sites
kintaro 0 Posted May 28, 2003 Share Posted May 28, 2003 Miteyak, I hope your right about seeing the worst...I plan on being here a while. One other thing, the keiristu and zaibatsu needs to give in to fair competition..local and foreign. PS- Ok, I went a little overboard w/ my challenge. My wife drove me into a depato today... But I stand by my belief. As I've said, I'm lazy today but TIME did a cover story on this issue 4-5...?? months ago. If you can find it give 'er a read. Interesting statistics. Link to post Share on other sites
akibun 0 Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 In my home town, many local shop is closing - center of town is very quiet and local people don't have the jobs. It is worrying for small town like my town,. Link to post Share on other sites
ProbablyaCrazyPerson 2 Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 Where's your hometown akibun? Link to post Share on other sites
Glen Falting 0 Posted June 2, 2003 Share Posted June 2, 2003 Not sure I agree without the positive outlook with some pretty major structural and cultural changes taking place. I don't know much about tax and economics - but is there any other country in the world that has anything like the deferred tax assets arrangements that are in place for the banks here in Japan? Maybe it is me, but I have very serious doubts about any system that allows a bank that is losing money to claim as an asset this year, the tax reductions it will enjoy in the future when it makes a profit. It seems that this (put very simply) bascially means that the bigger the loss the more capital it has. Link to post Share on other sites
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