hellyer 216 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I came across this item in a financial newsletter that I subscribe to. While it may not be new news, the extent of the predicted decline really surprised me Does anyone have any theories on why/how this is happening? Japan will be seen as in terminal decline and the yen devalues at an extraordinary rate. The following chart suggests what everybody knows but is afraid to discuss. Figure 3. Japanese Population (1870 - 2100) The declining Japanese population, its ageing profile and its extraordinary level of government debt are serious concerns. But it is the recent trend developments in the Japanese trade account (moving to a deficit) that suggest to us that the Yen is about to commence a major downward adjustment. Indeed, it may have already occurred if not for the decline in $US and euro. A declining yen in the next five years will have ramifications for Japanese inflation. As a large energy importer, the effect on the yield of Japanese bonds will be significant. Devaluation may induce Japanese investors to repatriate funds and investments from overseas markets. From an Australian perspective it suggests that the Japanese will be continual sellers of Australian property in coming years. The question is whether Chinese investors will replace them. Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Dunno there's a fair bit of discussion about the population thing, snowjunky. Somewhat superficial perhaps but... Link to post Share on other sites
Chriselle 158 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 It's really all just a bunch of speculation. If it's on the decline then so be it. The bubble era was false economy and well if Japan re-adjusts to become the # 5 or #10 or #15 economy then that's what it will be. Love your family, foster a healthy and powerful work ethic and everything will be just fine...and if not I'll seek life elsewhere. As for the decrease in population.....I actually prefer a little elbow room. Link to post Share on other sites
big-will 7 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 ...and if not I'll seek life elsewhere.... Might be easy for you Chriselle, but not for most Japanese. Link to post Share on other sites
grungy-gonads 54 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Any decline will surely be because of the increase in naughty foreigners. Oh, and people not really having kids any more. In no particular order. Link to post Share on other sites
NoFakie 45 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Every year in January, Japanese celebrate coming of age for 20-year-olds. Every year there are fewer and fewer of them and the fact is remarked upon. Compared to peak, there are now under half I think it was. Like the Japanese national debt, its not something that is a secret, but nobody really knows the answer. Ageing society and falling birthrate are established expressions in Japanese. Pretty much the biggest promise in the current government's manifesto before being elected was to significantly increase child benefit. Once in power, they took one look at the numbers and then abandoned the idea. Japan spends one of the lowest amounts per child in the OECD. For the population as a whole, in Japan in 1900 there were only 43 million people. The most populated prefecture was actually Niigata. It had more people than Tokyo. One thing about population projections though is that they are much more likely to come true than other predictions. Barring massive immigration, something close to the graph is going to happen. Its not like speculating on the price of gold. Link to post Share on other sites
hellyer 216 Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 As a purely selfish benefit for the likes of me, with the value of the Yen in decline my holiday expences will be cheaper - of course I would stay longer to compensate Link to post Share on other sites
best skier in hakuba 5 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Let's hope that the skijo you like can remain valid and open! Are we in a position to declare that the yen is in decline, really? Link to post Share on other sites
RobBright 35 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 The declining birth rate is solvable by making more facilities available for those with kids, eg day care centres and also benefits from companies to encourage those to have kids. Link to post Share on other sites
grungy-gonads 54 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Personally, I can't imagine that any kind of benefits from a company would encourage me to have kids, as I already know whether I want kids or not. Nothing to do with whether I get a few man a month more or not. Though I can see that it would help those who might not be making babies because of the cost of it. Perhaps Japan should do what the UK does and give unlimited free cash to numbskulls who make 10+ babies and have no job or income. Link to post Share on other sites
HelperElfMissy 42 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Noooooooooooo!!!! Oh God no! I will probably be hugely unpopular for saying this, but 'worst mistake ever'! Kids are both a product of genetics and environment/experiences. By giving handouts to neglectful parents with bad attitudes who just keep spitting them out the kids don't stand a chance. A least before handouts some of those kids were relinquished and given the chance of a bright future with committed parents desperate for a child to care for and nurture. Why is it that the 'growth' of a Nation is based on expanding population? World is overpopulated as it is (says the mother of 4)... And as long as births don't completely stop, life should keep ticking on. I would think being able to adapt to changing markets would be a much more useful skill. Link to post Share on other sites
Metabo Oyaji 71 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 The declining birth rate is solvable by making more facilities available for those with kids, eg day care centres and also benefits from companies to encourage those to have kids. I actually think the public support system for having kids in Japan is quite good. But I cannot imagine anyone having kids just because of that. There is a lot more to the decision than economics, for most people. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Why is it that the 'growth' of a Nation is based on expanding population? World is overpopulated as it is (says the mother of 4)... And as long as births don't completely stop, life should keep ticking on. I would think being able to adapt to changing markets would be a much more useful skill. The problem for Japan MB is not just it's population is declining but rapidly aging. Already it's something like 24% of the population is 65 or older and that's expected to increase to over 40% by the middle of this century. It's a simple problem of less people working paying taxes to support the increasing costs associated with looking after the elderly. This problem is more acute in Japan than any other nation on the planet. It's by no means the only issue the nation will face economically in the future. The fact they have the highest debt to GDP ratio of any developed nation is going to become a big issue somewhere down the line as well. Link to post Share on other sites
NoFakie 45 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 If you live in inaka, there's generally lots of childcare, at least for over threes. In the cities, there are waiting lists and some parents have to wait until their kids start school at six. Its Japan's cities that really support the country, not inaka, so its hurting the most economically productive people. By OECD standards, the money Japan spends on kids is low. In inaka, most of the funding will be coming from grants from central government, so hoikuens provide another excuse for local governments to build something with "free" money. Hakuba's hoikuen is in a brand new building, so if you judged from that alone, you'd think the country treats kids amazingly well. If the Japanese government were a person, it would earn 1,000 pounds a month and pay out 400 pounds of that in interest on its credit card while continuing to borrow more. Obviously if a person did that, everyone would call them "brainless". Link to post Share on other sites
big-will 7 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 If the Japanese government were a person, it would earn 1,000 pounds a month and pay out 400 pounds of that in interest on its credit card while continuing to borrow more. Obviously if a person did that, everyone would call them "brainless". Actually, that does sound like quite a lot of people back home! Link to post Share on other sites
mitchpee 10 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 It's unfortunate because a capitalist system or anything that involves money as a medium of exchange will always need a growing population. Growing population + inflation = growing economy. Without a growing population, you will inevitably have deflation. Deflation is great in the long run because it "evens out" economies. Unfortunately for the people that have to live during the period of deflation, life gets very hard. You quickly lose the ability to purchase anything that you used to be able to as a lack of income comes with this. I admire Japan for having a declining population. The world needs a serious population shock, but the negative things that come with this will mean that our lifestyles will ALL have to change. Not just one country. Everything we do is interconnected and it is now a global economy. Economics really is the dysmal science. Sorry for the cup is 1/4 empty speech. Link to post Share on other sites
brit-gob 9 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Just on Mr Sunday now.... Apparently, Japanese population is decreasing by 709 people a day, pensioners increasing by 2036 people a day. Link to post Share on other sites
big-will 7 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Those some pretty shocking numbers. Did Krystal tell you? Link to post Share on other sites
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