Britain Met Office gives up on long-term weather forecasts

[BagOfCrisps 24]

Quote:

Britain was in for a season of mildness, the Met Office announced, shortly before the coldest winter in 31 years. That followed the prediction of a barbecue summer that went on to leave the nation with some very soggy sausages.

Now the Met Office is to abandon the seasonal forecasts that have brought it so much recent humiliation.

While the move will be seen inevitably as a climbdown, the Met Office insists that it comes after widespread public polling over the past few months.

“All our research shows that the public aren’t interested in seasonal weather forecasts, but they do want a monthly forecast, which we’ll be running on our website,†an official said.

If they quite because of lack of success in their forecasting, we will soon be getting not much more than "what it will be doing in 10 minutes" forecasts. And that will be wrong too!



Question: are forecasts better in some countries than others? And why? Is it the technology used, or something that makes the weather moe unpredictable?

[JA2340 16]

Global warming making the predictions less reliable?

 

I dunno, just a thought.

[quattro 1]

Originally Posted By: JA

Global warming making the predictions less reliable?

I dunno, just a thought.

Global warming has been debunked. They just never got the message so there predictions were off.

[Tubby Beaver 209]

The UK Met Office absolutley suck at predicting the weather......they couldn't predict the colour of their socks in the morning!! I reckon Chimps would be able to do a better job than the Muppets at the Met Office. Japan's weather predictions seem to be pretty damn good...the daily ones anyway. Often they'll say things like it'll be sunny till about 2pm and then it'll rain and lo and behold, around 2pm the clouds gather and the heavens open.

[Mike Pow 52]

The Met Office forecasts for the Brecon Beacons National Park have been spot since September 2009.

[Go Native 70]

Originally Posted By: MikePow

The Met Office forecasts for the Brecon Beacons National Park have been spot since September 2009.

[Mike Pow 52]

No joking. They've been excellent.

 

So too the Welsh weather on BBC media.

[BagOfCrisps 24]

Originally Posted By: Tubby Beaver

The UK Met Office absolutley suck at predicting the weather......they couldn't predict the colour of their socks in the morning!! I reckon Chimps would be able to do a better job than the Muppets at the Met Office. Japan's weather predictions seem to be pretty damn good...the daily ones anyway. Often they'll say things like it'll be sunny till about 2pm and then it'll rain and lo and behold, around 2pm the clouds gather and the heavens open.

They control the weather, that's why.

[thursday 1]

how does one predict the colour of one's socks?

[thursday 1]

I have white ones and black ones.

[rach 1]

When I am back in the UK the forecast always seems to be cloudy, with sunny period and showers. Or just heavy rain. They always seem to get that right, I think they just guess.

 

They do get some stick though don't they. Good to hear that they have actually done a good job there Mike.

[Tubby Beaver 209]

Originally Posted By: thursday

how does one predict the colour of one's socks?

the same way you make any prediction, take a look at the facts and make an educated judgement on what you think its likely to be....so if your socks are only black & white then you have a 1 in 2 chance of a correct prediction right off the bat.....take into account your other clothes and make an educated guess

[Thundercat 60]

Mate, you've only got black and white socks? WTF?! How boring is that!

[pie-eater 207]

Bloody ace weather here though at the moment.

Mr Weather seemsto be saying it might all be over soon.

[Oyuki kigan 0]

Originally Posted By: quattro

Global warming has been debunked. They just never got the message so there predictions were off.

News travels slowly to my parts. When and how did this happen?

[Go Native 70]

It didn't....

[Mantas 3]

The weather reports here are extremely accurate, but they usually go something like this.

 

Tomorrow will be mostly fine and sunny with the chance of rain showers devoping through the day. Winds will be 5-25 knots from the SW-SE turning NE-NW during the day.

Temperatures will be between 10 and 35 deg.

[grungy-gonads 54]

I have also been known to predict earthquakes quite accurately.

 

Here's my latest:

 

There will be an earthquake of at least size magnitude 4.5 in eastern Japan before 30th July 2010. Please take all necessary precautions.

 

[Thundercat 60]

Sounds as accurate as my Saturday night predictions:

 

High likelihood of several beers followed by a moderate chance of gin and tonic developing into either late night dancing or karaoke. Sunday morning activities will range between making coffee, rubbing temples and reading the paper through blurry eyes. Probability of afternoon napping remains high.

[SKI 15]

gg tells his mum too so that no-one can claim he is making up his predictions

[BagOfCrisps 24]

They are pretty goddam accurate though!

[HelperElfMissy 42]

6.6 this evening... well done!

[rach 1]

[skidaisuki 0]

The UK Met Office deserves credit - I think it's pretty accurate over the timescale that most people need real-world weather forecasts, i.e. the immediate day ahead and up to 3-5 days ahead. That's all that matters.

 

You have to be deluded to think that a medium-term forecast for specific weather conditions in a specific place in Britain, with all its changeable Atlantic weather and micro-climates, is likely to be right as a result of more than chance, based on seasonal averages.

 

And the fact that they are prepared to admit and acknowledge their limitations is actually quite admirable, in my view. A lot of other countries' met offices wouldn't be allowed do confess to such shortcomings, however deluded they might be in their confidence to predict accurately. Imagine the North Korean weather forecasters - they probably get sent to the gulag if they get it wrong, then the state media re-writes the forecast to make it "correct" in retrospect. Plus the despotic "Dear Leader" with the stupid hair gets the credit for sunny days, presumably.

 

SdS

[pie-eater 207]

They have done pretty good in the 10 days or so I have been here.

Been generally fantastic weather, good timing!