Go Native 70 Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 Originally Posted By: snowdude I would love to tell everyone how I predict the weather, but in case I continue to be correct which so far I have now for four years in a row, then I may eventually benefit financially from it, lol! snowdude think you may be believing your own hype a little too much. For 07/08 you predicted a very cold and snowy winter and even said that Tokyo and surrounds would get dumped on (Tokyo ended up with a winter total of only 4cm). Jan/Feb were cooler than average but Dec was average or slightly above and snowfalls were hardly epic proportions and Mar was well above average throughout the country. Anyway don't give up your day job just yet Link to post Share on other sites
snowdude 44 Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 Actually what you said is incorrect, it actually snowed here in Tokyo and the surrounding areas six (6) times during the 07/08 period here and was noticebly colder as I had said! Not sure where you got 4cm from, because I can assure you it snowed at at least anywhere between 2-6 cm each of the six times it snowed, as I measured it so I know! For Tokyo to have snow six times in one season and to receive between 2-6cm per time for more than twice in a season is being Dumped on for Tokyo. On average it snows once only in Tokyo. Compared to the mountains of course what we get in Kanto would be called a dusting if that, but for Tokyo it is a dump! My prediction last year was actually for the Kanto area mainly which I was spot on, if you read back, this year I did it for Kanto, Chubu and Niigata areas and so far I have been spot on too! You are in Kutchan, miles from Tokyo which has a very different weather pattern to here, which is why without me actually spending some time there can not predict what the weather in your area will be like, that would only be a guess! So what you observe in Hokkaido will be quite different to these parts of Honshu where I am! I am sure I won't be right all the time, not possible unfortunately, wish I could be, but so far for the past few years I have been much more accurate than the weather experts, maybe not perfect of course but never the less much more accurate than the experts so far. Link to post Share on other sites
BagOfCrisps 24 Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 Wonder what the moral of the story is? The weather men guess? Or that guessing is just as good as their predictions? Or snowdude is just a dancing frog? Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 I got the 4cm from the Tokyo weather station data from Japan Meteorological Agency. Maebashi out on the Kanto plains in Gunma received 14cm. Mito to the north in Ibaraki received 2cm. Kumagaya in Saitama got 11cm. All these figures were below the long term average. If you look at temperature anomalies for the Kanto area in 07/08 only Feb had widespread below average temperatures. Nov, Dec, Jan and Mar were either very close to average or above, especially in Mar when it was significantly warmer. I wasn't extrapolating your forecast for up here in Hokkaido but looking at the data for the Kanto region and thus far the data just doesn't support your claims. 07/08 was neither particularly cold or snowy as you forecast. So you were hardly 'spot on'. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 Also you said the following on 27 Oct about this season. Quote: due to the lack of some usually more definate elements like we had last year, I am still going with my original forecast and that is a coldish Dec and cold Jan, with some heavy spells of snow, but nothing major. Having said that nothing major in Japan is still excellent compared to most countries anyway. This forecast by the way is for Kanto, chubu, Niigata areas. Other areas may be quite different!!! Dec and Jan had significantly above average temps in those regions. So not so spot on again! That's two years in a row where you've not got it all that right at all but still somehow believe you're 'spot on'. As I said I don't think you should be giving up the day job for the forecasting gig just yet Link to post Share on other sites
Thundercat 60 Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 C'mon guys... arguing about predicting the weather? Making a long term forecast is like trying to read a crystal ball, sometimes you're 'spot on' and sometimes you're a dancing frog... Stick your head outside and have a look! Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 I'm not arguing about predicting the weather, I'm arguing that snowdude hasn't been as spot on as he claims to have been. By all means make predictions, it's fun! But don't make outlandish claims of accuracy when anyone who cares to check the data can easily show the inconsistencies in your claims. snowdude also claims to have been much more accurate than the weather experts. Well JMA from september consistently forecast a warmer and below average snowfall season. Seems they weren't far off the mark at all. Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 I predict I will be in Niseko in Jan 2010. I am always spot on. Link to post Share on other sites
Hokkaidough 4 Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 Jan this time hey? Link to post Share on other sites
snowdude 44 Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 As Usual Go Native you have miss interpreted what I said, you will see that I said this winter would not be very cold and would not have much snow, which is exactly how this winter has been!!! I also said that it was difficult at the start to predict clearly if it would be cold or mild winter due to mixed signs, but I went with my original prediction of a warmer than average winter! I said back in SEP/ OCT that Dec and Jan will have SOME cold spells and SOME heavy dumps of snow, but other than that not much more! Which is exactly what happened!!! Dec was mild with a few cold days and some heavy snow, but short lived same with January a few cold days and some spells of heavy snow, Feb very little snow indeed and mild temps!!! I DID NOT say this year would be cold and snowy quite the opposite!!!! Please re-read carefully!!! Also about the 07/08 season, if you ask anyone who lives in Kanto, you will find that they will all tell you it was much colder than it had been for a number of years and snowed a lot more frequently than usual! When I spoke about that prediction you will see it was actually for Kanto only that year, and I was right on!! Anyway I am not going to keep arguing about this, I still stand by what I said! And I will again this coming autumn have a go at predicting the 09/10 winter season! Link to post Share on other sites
ShinyDiscoBall 2 Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 I enjoy these posts. Link to post Share on other sites
ShinyDiscoBall 2 Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 Though of course I wish the winter had dumped us much more snow.... Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 I remeber snowdude saying there'd be snow, but not a lot, but when there is a lot, it will eventually stop c'mon, day jobs to all. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 snowdude I'm not saying you got it completely wrong, just that you were hardly spot on. The quote above was directly from your post on 27 Oct and I don't know how I miss interpreted it. You clearly state 'a coldish Dec and cold Jan, with some heavy spells of snow'. So you were clearly not completely correct. I don't care what people say about the weather in 07/08 as people generally have very poor memories when it comes to weather. I look at the data and it clearly shows that again you were not completely right. I enjoy your forecasts but am a little bemused by your insistence that you get it spot on when clearly you do not. Link to post Share on other sites
Jynxx 4 Posted March 4, 2009 Share Posted March 4, 2009 Anyone who claims accuracy (how accurate? more likely tendency) to long term weather forecast is BS to me. Anyone can get a pretty good idea one week ahead from looking at the charts, but then micro metrology is a different story. It's like predicting if a gorgeous girl is going to get a boyfriend or not.. Womens emotions and autumn weather are alike, as the Japanese say.. I would like to see someone predict wind speed and direction. Fluid dynamics is the hardest branch of physics no one really knows what's really going on although there are computer simulations. Link to post Share on other sites
mooncow 0 Posted March 6, 2009 Share Posted March 6, 2009 I haven't been in Japan much this winter but it certainly seemed to have been very mild when I was there. My friends have been in Niseko though and seemed to have had a good season. Link to post Share on other sites
foreversnow 5 Posted March 6, 2009 Share Posted March 6, 2009 I was in Niseko for February and found it just cold enough and I certainly couldn't complain about the snowfall. I know everyone carries on about the 05/06 season but Feb this year was pretty awesome. Link to post Share on other sites
Crustanoid 0 Posted March 6, 2009 Share Posted March 6, 2009 Niseko has been the exception this year it seems. Link to post Share on other sites
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