muikabochi 208 Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 OK so this was 2 seasons ago: 24th Dec 05 And last season, 9th Jan 07 in the same spot Stark contrast. Which season will we get this time? Lets poll guessing for healthy life time Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted November 19, 2007 Author Share Posted November 19, 2007 Oops I forgot the poll Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 the top pic Link to post Share on other sites
joshnii 2 Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 Thats pretty shocking. Last season really was a shocker compared to what we're used to. Somewhere in between or more would be just fine. Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Pow 52 Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 That is an amazing compare and contrast. Was it the same on-mountain? - the difference I mean. Link to post Share on other sites
SnowJapan Admin SnowJapan 178 Posted November 19, 2007 SnowJapan Admin Share Posted November 19, 2007 It wasn't as huge a difference on the mountain, but lots of town level resorts especially were really having a hard time - even in February when there is usually meters of snow out there. Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Pow 52 Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 Thanks for that. Link to post Share on other sites
SnowJapan Admin SnowJapan 178 Posted November 19, 2007 SnowJapan Admin Share Posted November 19, 2007 Here's "the telephone box" on 2nd Feb 07 And on Jan 20th 06 Last season an extreme, in the same way the season before was another extreme (but the other way round!) More on the phonebox here: http://www.snowjapanforums.com/ubbthreads.php/ubb/showflat/Number/243828#Post243828 Link to post Share on other sites
BagOfCrisps 24 Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 If they are both extremes, one would think "somewhere in between" was the wise choice. I am wise. Link to post Share on other sites
Tubby Beaver 209 Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 That first picture is unbelievable!! i have never seen that much snow in my life!! The best was getting waist deep snow for about 1 month when I was about 14!! Please let it be tons of snow!! Link to post Share on other sites
BagOfCrisps 24 Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 Did you miss this gallery Tubby? http://www.snowjapan.com/e/gallery/index-snowy-japan.html Link to post Share on other sites
BagOfCrisps 24 Posted November 19, 2007 Share Posted November 19, 2007 Made a new thread for it actually http://www.snowjapanforums.com/ubbthreads.php/ubb/showflat/Number/243945#Post243945 Link to post Share on other sites
Saitaman 1 Posted November 20, 2007 Share Posted November 20, 2007 Didn't lots of resorts have troubles when there was too much snow. Somewhere in between, nearer "lots" would be best. Link to post Share on other sites
kokodoko 67 Posted November 20, 2007 Share Posted November 20, 2007 i want lots and lots coz i am greedy.. Link to post Share on other sites
BagOfCrisps 24 Posted November 20, 2007 Share Posted November 20, 2007 Me too. Link to post Share on other sites
skidaisuki 0 Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 December '05 was dreamland - totally hardcore. It reached the stage where people were praying for it to stop. I remember arriving at Yuzawa in mid December and even at town level everything was disappearing. Much as I'd like to see that kind of mega dump again, it's pretty mean to wish it on those old folk living up in the mountains and having to deal with it daily, so I hope it is plenty on the ski jos and a manageable amount in the valleys. The Japanese Met Office is saying that the new season will be average and that should make everyone happy after last year. Link to post Share on other sites
Tubby Beaver 209 Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 Yeah BoC I got it, had a bit of a brain fart but got it eventually. Average year would do me, I've been living of off a sprinkling on flakes and tons of ice back home!! Lets snow!! Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 Dec 05 was indeed epic. Leaving Niseko, we had a coupla nights in Sapporo. In one sitting I ate 4 snow crabs with 2 beers. Never felt so epicly sickly full in my life. Link to post Share on other sites
lpak 0 Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 my 2 cents...this might be technical but, ahh, whatever, i did this for me since i'm coming over... ** The Sea were in La Nina right now - heres the current SST anomalies http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.11.19.2007.gif note the region around Japan! Warm ocean = lots more moisture. SST anomalies tend to stick around for a while so i imagine you'll have enhanced moisture fluxes over Japan for at least the next month, and probably the season..the question is, will this warm ocean warm the air? The JMA thinks so... ** The Atmosphere This is a lot harder to forecast because, unlike the ocean, the atmosphere changes rapidly. So we need to look back at history and see what usually happens. Firstly, La Nina in the atmosphere is signified by MSLP differences between Darwin and Tahiti (yes the tropics is a big player in the mid-latitdue weather!). This measure is known as the SOI and is positive for La Nina, negative for El Nino. e.g. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ So the atmosphere is starting to 'La Nina' with positive SOI values but it ain't strong in the atmosphere yet... ** What does La Nina Mean for Japan Snow? Some La Nina episodes during Nov-Feb (ie ski season) in the near past are the seasons of 05/06 99/00 98/99 88/89 Now - heres the GOODIES http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ENSO/enso.different.html click on precipitation for 'L' (La Nina) for the months of Dec, Jan, Feb. These plots show anomalies (departures from long term averages) of what La Nina's off the past look like. You'll note that, on average, there IS MORE precipitation (hopefully falling as snow) but is is variable, sometimes just average, sometimes below. ** What is the JMA forecasting The JMA are forecasting warm temps and increased rain for the next month but are not making any bets on the season. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/longfcst/ there probably waiting for the SOI to go strongly positive... ** Summary - We are in an oceanic La Nina - The atmosphere is starting to respond to La Nina. - *IF* we go into a full blown La Nina, the main island of japan has a tendency to get more precipitation (hopefully as snow, not rain) My guess is that we will go into La Nina and then have a 30% (1 in 3) chance of higher than average snowfall. Could be warmer than average, especially on Hokkaido. cheers, lp Link to post Share on other sites
tsondaboy 0 Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 Good job lp! Link to post Share on other sites
lpak 0 Posted November 21, 2007 Share Posted November 21, 2007 no worries... ps West coast America goes nuts in La Nina with snow... especially California!! Link to post Share on other sites
Nisoko 6 Posted November 22, 2007 Share Posted November 22, 2007 Well, it's a good start. Link to post Share on other sites
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