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Calling any scientists out there! I am looking at Go Native's very useful link - above - for medium range East Asia forecasts, specifically the '850mb Temperature Relative Humidity & Winds' and the later charts (5 days ahead) show minus 12 degrees at 850 MB over Hokkaido comared to minus 8 now.

 

[grinding sound as brain clunks into gear]

 

Suppose that means it'll get colder (doh!) but what altitude would normally have an air pressure of 850 MB? Somewhere up in the straosphere, right?

 

Any help with conclusions appreciated...

 

My only one is that winter is on it's way, quite a safe bet I suppose

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The 850mb level is usually found at between 1400 and 1600m asl. So for Niseko for instance, if the 850mb chart shows -12 over the region then it will be -10 or so at the top of the resort.

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Go Native, how's it looking today? Looking at your chart above (which of course updates itself to 5 days out), it looks as though the weekend will see more cold air coming down from the North.

 

Perhaps next week will be the first 'proper' week of winter for Hokkaido.

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Next week the wheather should start to bring in something. Already happening up high in the bigger mountains. My mate watched it snow at school yesterday in Gifu but that school is at 800 to 900 meters up,,, I think. He was stoked and sent me an email.

 

Looking like a normal year which is good for everyone!

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On the news last night here in Niigata. Preying mantis laying eggs at different levels indicates whether there will be lots of snow or not. (They're clever you see). It seems this year, the snow will be late. The praying mantises say 29th December for the real snow to start in Niigata. Not sure I believe them (after all they have trianglular heads) but thats what was on the report. Some university professors have been undertaking this very important research for a number of years now.

 

\:\)

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Oh dear. Do they have them in Niigata? I thought they were tropical. Though I try to avoid all insects, hate them especially when they get big!

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Well it looks as if some very cool air will move over Hokkaido on Wednesday night. Thursday onwards they are predicting snowfalls. At this stage there doesn't seem to be too much moisture in the system until around Sunday. Northern parts of Hokkaido should do better until Sunday when snowfalls will become widespread throughout the island. The cold air looks to be settling in so snowfalls should continue through much of next week....at least I hope so. May have enough snow on the ground for some lifts to open in Niseko on the 23rd as planned.

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Talking of praying manti, have heard people talk of a lot of kamemushi (stinkbugs) meaning lotsa snow... have seen way more around here than there were last year, and the peaks outside my window were not snowy until much later either.

 

was kinda hoping that the folklore might have been confirmed, instead of someone doing a study to ruin my fantasy.

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Yep, judging from the information online, tomorrow we should be starting to see some proper snow on the ground up there. There's snow forecast every day for Asahikawa and Furano from tomorrow, with the temperatures set to fall and stay close to a zero max.

 

Hopefully the same airstream will start to result in snow for the Honshu resorts as well.

 

Keep us posted...

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Rain in Sapporo and Otaru this morning, but snow on the ground on top of Moiwayama and at Nakayama-touge. Niseko/Rusutsu/Kokusai/Kiroro must be getting some... just checked the webcams - there is some white now!

 

grin.gif

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Okay - there we go.

 

It's coming down now in Sapporo, but melting on the ground. Asahikawa is a couple of degrees colder, so they're getting some nice white flurries as we speak.

 

Otaru is getting some flurries right now too, so check out the Kiroro webcams and watch it accumulate!

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Has snowed lightly all day in Hirafu. This afternoon it's got a little colder and and the snow is falling a little heavier. Quite a good cover forming around the place. Even Kutchan is reporting near 10cm on the ground.

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