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Kyoto treaty will have the desired effect?

Carbon-dioxide reducing is very important but relying on nuclear power generation is a good way of that????

No other creature has more impact upon the systems of life on the earth than human beings...

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I know somebody who used to work pretty high up in BP (British Petroleum). Apparently before satellite technology aided in finding a whole heap more oil reserves back in the late 80's/early 90's, the oil companies were starting to think about the fact that one day they would run out of their resource. Apparently (anyone correct me if this is myth, but this guy seemed pretty genuine), in this moment of crisis, BP started going crazy buying the patents/rights to a whole heap of inventions, scientific studies, wacky ideas, and other things so that when they no longer had oil, chances where there was some other 'great big thing' or resource they could survive on. Recently they started selling off all these patents since they have enough oil to survive probably another 50 years or so.

 

In any case, it kinda makes me wonder if they have any plan whatsoever for the future without oil? Perhaps they'll figure out a way to bill us for each ray of sunlight?

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The last big oil find was in the Caspian, but initial reports suggest that there is not as much oil there as expected. Shell also announced a while back that their reserves had been overestimated by 20%. The wild card for oil supply is Iraq, but the place is in a grade A mess and there are few signs of it getting better, especially not if the USA is going to have a poke at Syria and Iran.

 

In BP's PR, the company name is now "Beyond Petroleum".

 

Conservative estimates for the peak in global oil supply suggest it is ten years away. Superpessimistic ones suggest it has already happened. Google on "peak oil" for more info. The energy shortages in the last couple of years in California and in North-Eastern America are signs of what is to come.

 

As Yogi Berra once said "the future ain't what it used to be". \:\(

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Oil stands in the way of our future, as long as there is cheap oil, we'll just go on polluting.

 

Apparently the oil companies do own many of the rights to future energy technologies (check out shell and BP adverts, look what we can do, you can have this when the oil runs out, aren't we caring... now run along and buy some shares)... let's hope they do sell off the patents so we can start using them. It's unlikely they'll sell patents that could lead to cheaper energy than petroleum, however. Which brings us back to the moral question of patents, esp. if they are bought/developed NOT to be used... mad.gif

 

As for currently available alt. energy, one might be surprised just how cheap it is to set up solar, wind or water turbine power for your house. Currently planning our energy source for our house to be in Oz.

 

The future doesn't have to be so bleak, but if we can't lose the ####heads at the helm, all bets are off.

 

PS - don't fly

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Seeme that this is a topic which comes up time and time again, and pretty much everyone is aware of in the world. yet time and time again the answers are way off the mark in realistically solving the issues. Its not a problem that is going to go away over night and will take much time and dedication on everyones part to solve. Effects of changing environments like in the pictures are everywhere. On the Ogasawara Islands where I work over the summer at the marine centre we have seen dramatic chnge to the migrating animals and marine life over the last 10 years. In March ten years ago we had 40% more Humpback Whales arriving for gestation period and raising their calves than this year, and the same goes for summer. This year only 60% of the Green Turtles we expected nested on the island. Plus the huge amount of palegic birds which regularly used to migrate here now dwindling in numbers makes a big cause for concern. This has been put down to climatic shifts resultiung in disorientation of the marine life and other species along with changing in currents. Big problems need Big answers!

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BMW is expecting to have hydrogen powered hybrids cover 10% (it may have been 6%) of its total production units come 2010. The first production car available for purchase by consumers will roll off the line early next year.

 

An interesting insight: The major component required to produce hydrogen is sunlight. Used somewhere in the process of breakdown or something. The largest concentration of sunny days exists in the Middle East and along the Red Sea borders. The same countries where the largest oil reserves are.

 

The Middle East countries will be on top regardless. May even see a reversal of world powers in the years to come.

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I am hoping that humans will simply stop breeding in the next 10 year so that our population can revert back to one which is small enough to be sustainable without depending on sucking oil out of the ground. At current rates our population will double in 35 years. We are exponential and can't last this way.

 

Life on limited oil could be great, so long as the morons leading the modern world are sacked. We would not travel as much, 'cyber commuting' will rule. In fact, the so called 'tech world' has a moderately low dependency on fossil fuels. Expect it to dominate our lives. As a species we will become much less physically invasive of the Earths environment as we will no longer have the resources to do so. Cyber will replace physical. The big problem is food and plastic: we cant produce enough food to feed the 1st world population without fertilizer (derived directly from fossil fuels), simply cant be done. Pretty soon there will be too many people and not enough food.

 

If we learn how to use the inconceivable energy in the sun then we are fine forever. Problem is we are a male dominated world, so we spend money on violence, not solutions. Plus the sun cant produce enough nitro fertilizer to feed the world.... leads me back to where I started: the 1st world population is going to fall by a large percentage, and it is a very good thing at that.

 

We all spend our stupid hollywood minded time dreaming about life in teh future, how dramatic the changes are going to be (and have already been). Change to date was fuelled and made possible by oil and oil alone. Nothing else. Change in the future will not be massive advances down today's path. It will be massive advances in adaptation AWAY from today's path. If we are clever we will learn how to regress in a civilised manner such that we can sustain scientific/medical/social growth and development for the betterment of society yet do so without the one thing that allows everything you see today: oil.

 

By the way, EVERYTHING we do and have in this modern world is facilitated by oil. If not in as a direct input then as a labour saving factor. For example, the necessity to feed ourselves is daily, we must eat every day. We need to expend energy to derive energy (food) and modern industrial society is now so efficient and producing food (not really, given the inefficiencies in oil consumption relative to future needs) that we hardly spare a thought, let alone a kilojoule: look how fat we are! Fat = stored energy from consumption being greater than expenditure. Thanks to a massive industrial age we no longer spend energy feeding ourselves or housing ourselves or protecting ourselves. This leaves a lot of spare energy and time and money to develop everything you see before you today. Innovation is the child of surplus energy capacity, not necessity. And look at the junk it has bought with it. Thankfully amongst the rubbish there has been massive advances in medical science allowing the quality of life to endure with much less suffering than in the past. This has been our one big achievement, we should be proud of that.

 

I made most of this up as I typed, so perhaps there are some flaws in my ideas....

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Anybody who is interested in solutions should visit http://www.oilendgame.org/ and download the pdf. It's a huge report on the current state of technologies that can replace oil starting now. It's by Amory Lovins and people from his Rocky Mountain Institute. It's probably the most realistic, sober and comprehensive look at the issues that has ever been published. It takes the view that making the changes will have huge benefits and no costs, all backed up with figures.

 

I suggest you write to your government representatives and ask them to have a look at it.

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