Any resorts investing in new lifts / facilities?

[thursday 1]

Originally Posted By: soubriquet

It seems Japan is where Iraq/Iran/Pakistan were in the early seventies. Deeply unknown territory full of mysteries if you don't follow Lonely Planet to Niseko and Hakuba.

Dragons are a daily hazard in Tohoku. The Bible will keep you safe.

Soubs, I don't understand that. Does it mean that the bible is an investment instruction manual for followers to reap endless rewards by turning non-believers into believers or non-believing corpses? I'm confused.

[soubriquet 0]

You'd be welcome here matey, even if you look Asian

[thursday 1]

Actually, I look Chinese, but this could be BS as the majority of my posts are.

[soubriquet 0]

Sorry to be obscure.

 

The "Bible" is the book that justifies Jews killing Christians killing Muslims. All in the name of the same God.

 

Bibles (in the less biblical sense) direct visitors to Niseko and Hakuba. That is, 2 from about 500.

 

Everywhere else in Japan is too mysterious for foreigners. It's dangerous to travel at or alone

[Mantas 3]

I take it your not comming to world youth day Soubs, (apart from being to old that is)

[soubriquet 0]

I'm afraid my invitation never arrived. I guess the messenger was eaten by wild beasts.

[JA2340 16]

Better off out of it anyway! Kids are OK, in small groups (like about 1 or 2 ) but a gazillion of them?? No thanks! And, in Sidonee? Double No Thanks!

[Mike Pow 52]

Originally Posted By: Mr Wiggles

Originally Posted By: MikePow

The Niseko area is rapidly becoming the Emperor's New Clothes of Japan, dare I say it world skiing/snowboarding.

If the mountain companies don't start investing in their infrastructure pronto - lifts, grooming, signage, transportation - then this area's 'bubble' will burst and people will go elsewhere.

No matter how easy it is to get here, how good the snow is, how accommodating the slopes are, how much English is spoken etc etc etc.

Is the resort that bad? Is that what customers say?

No that's my personal take as Johnny-on-the-spot.

Some very inflated prices for a commodity that appears to be plentiful all over Japan.

The Niskeo area is in first place for the international investor and possibly visitor. I don't think it can stay top of the heap if the on-mountain investment doesn't keep apace with the off-mountain investment.

[I'm Sexy 0]

_That is interesting. I thought Niseko was many new facility.

 

I do not think another many resort are having new facility either though.

 

Sorry poor English I can't express well!

[grungy-gonads 54]

We understand I'm Sexy.

[Mantas 3]

Originally Posted By: I'm Sexy

_That is interesting. I thought Niseko was many new facility.

I do not think another many resort are having new facility either though.

Sorry poor English I can't express well!

Your English is about 100 times better than my Japanese.

[tripitaka 0]

Originally Posted By: MikePow

Originally Posted By: Mr Wiggles

Originally Posted By: MikePow

The Niseko area is rapidly becoming the Emperor's New Clothes of Japan, dare I say it world skiing/snowboarding.

If the mountain companies don't start investing in their infrastructure pronto - lifts, grooming, signage, transportation - then this area's 'bubble' will burst and people will go elsewhere.

No matter how easy it is to get here, how good the snow is, how accommodating the slopes are, how much English is spoken etc etc etc.

Is the resort that bad? Is that what customers say?

No that's my personal take as Johnny-on-the-spot.

Some very inflated prices for a commodity that appears to be plentiful all over Japan.

The Niskeo area is in first place for the international investor and possibly visitor. I don't think it can stay top of the heap if the on-mountain investment doesn't keep apace with the off-mountain investment.

In my opinion the Japan "ski bubble" is caused by other bubbles in other countries, particularly Australia. A lot of money has been made by a few, and a lot of people think they have discovered El Dorado, but I think it's largely overcooked. The Aussie bubble is being pricked with ever-sharpening pins. Methinks trips to Niseko and condos will be the first things that are cut back from peoples' lifestyles. I could be wrong but I will hedge my bets.

[NoFakie 45]

Thanks Mike. I suppose there are reasons why foreigners went to Niseko first, and if they can be emphasized all will be well. I won't speculate on what those reasons are, because all the usual stuff on this forum will come out. Even in the States or Europe, some resorts are more expensive than others. Its not a big problem, esp. not in Japan where skiing is cheap anyway. If the resort is to take a punt on something, another airline linkup or charter flights might be it. Noone likes long journeys, and you can never make it too easy for customers to get somewhere.

 

As for Trip's comment, the income multiplier in Oz is higher than it ever was in the US or UK, so a major correction in housing there seems inevitable, even if commodities remain high. However, the actual demographic of people who go skiing in Niseko (or anywhere else in Japan) is pretty small and probably wealthy enough or dedicated enough so that it shouldn't make all that much difference. There is a high cost of entry for the sport of skiing and overseas ski trips at the best of times. Personally I reckon that for the time being, any fall in numbers due to bubbles bursting on the more economically vulnerable could still be made up by the word getting out about skiing in Japan to folk who can still afford it. I suspect we are still far from saturation on that one.

 

Travel brings a lot of joy into our lives. Lets hope the party continues.

[Sciclone 2]

Personally, all I could hope for is that the major resorts put in a high-speed lift like the one in Furano (furano zone, not kitanomine). It carries 101 people but gets all of them to the top of the mountain in about 4min 45secs, covering about 2.3km in actual distance. It also meant my brother (he's fairly skinny) didn't get too cold, because the carriage is enclosed, so you don't get blasted by -20~ Winds.

 

Furano isn't even that big a ski area. It has some good runs, but I loved the ability to be able to race down, and their would usually be one of the 2 carriages waiting for me.

 

I haven't been to any other resorts yet, but if they all had even one of these, it would make lines dissappear. It would also please a lot of people, as riding lifts is one of those things that takes up a lot of time.

[Mantas 3]

Originally Posted By: tripitaka

In my opinion the Japan "ski bubble" is caused by other bubbles in other countries, particularly Australia. A lot of money has been made by a few, and a lot of people think they have discovered El Dorado, but I think it's largely overcooked. The Aussie bubble is being pricked with ever-sharpening pins. Methinks trips to Niseko and condos will be the first things that are cut back from peoples' lifestyles. I could be wrong but I will hedge my bets.

Spot on Tripi.
Petrol prices and rising mortage payments are bitting hard into peoples disposable incomes here at the moment. Overseas ski holidays are a real luxury and probably the first thing to go when that belt gets tightened.
Wait till we start carbon trading in 2 years time. More expensive airfares and less money to pay for then.
Niseko will certainly see a lot less Aussie visits in the future. I hope they factor that in there future plans.

[muikabochi 208]

Hakkai-san up the road from me has a ropeway going from the bottom to the top, well over 2km, zooming up at 10m/s. Problem is they seem a bit tight on how often they run it especially on weekdays. If you time it well though...

[NoFakie 45]

For all their visibility and the nonstop hype, how many Aussies actually come to Japan to go skiing? Isn't it still under 30,000? That's not very many people for a wealthy country of twenty odd million to sustain.

[HelperElfMissy 42]

I'd be interested in knowing the figures - but I suspect the numbers will be increasing rather than declining...

 

I just got back from a week at Falls Creek, and of all the people that we chatted with up there maybe 20% had been to Japan and it was to Niseko, but way more than half of the people we talked to said they are planning to go within the next 2 years - and most were talking Hakuba.

 

The owners/managers of the lodge we stayed in are heading to Hakuba for this coming season to run a lodge/hotel - they did an awesome job at Falls Creek - award winning dining...I would stay in a place they run in a HEARTBEAT! They already have a list of Falls regulars who want a booking with them in Hakuba - and we got ourselves on that list quick smart.

 

From what we could ascertain the biggest reason people delayed making a booking was young kids and not knowing how they would cope with different food/language/culture/extreme conditions. Must admit it was something I considered and worried over PRIOR to coming to Japan, but I think those fears are by and large unwarranted.

 

The other issue some people bring up is "Oh Japan is so expensive to live" .... seems the high prices of years gone by have influenced some to believe that living costs in Japan are still very expensive compared to Autralia. Not so! As we all know - a ski holiday in Japan is cheaper than a ski holiday in Australia - and the excess spent in airfares can be offset in the savings for staying for 2 weeks. As that fact gets around more and more Aussies are seriously considering Japan as a viable alternative to a home country snow getaway. They have more time available to them in January than in July anyway, and more of a need to keep the kids occupied over the long school vacation.

[Rag-Doll 0]

Originally Posted By: Mr Wiggles

For all their visibility and the nonstop hype, how many Aussies actually come to Japan to go skiing? Isn't it still under 30,000? That's not very many people for a wealthy country of twenty odd million to sustain.

Exactly Wiggs.

Trips, have you actually been to Niseko? I remember you posting about Niseko being subject to the Japanese property factors and now you're banging on about other bubbles. Maybe you ought to get up there and check it out, so you have a better idea about what you're talking about.

Here are some facts:

People were buying into Niseko without any extra money being spent on the mountain infrastructure. Equally, plenty of people now visit Niseko even though no money has been spent on the mountain infrstructure.

The Niseko on mountain infrastructure is no worse and in many cases much better than what is available at other resorts. I've been to about 20 on Honshu and Hokkaido - including Shiga, Naeba/Kagura, Happo, Nozawa, Kiroro, Rutsusu, Arai, Myoko Suginohara etc. slow, "romance" lifts seem to be the Japanese national standard for ski resorts.

Off mountain facilities at Hirafu are orders of magnitude better than the vast majority of Japanese resorts - where the choices are often either a poxy 1980's Japanese style hotel that serve dinner at 5pm and close at 8pm or the base station of a ropeway surrounded by minshukus.

Ski properties aren't great investments if you're holding them for the rental return so a drop in the rental market (i.e. a decline in Aussies visiting) isn't going to be a problem for the majority of buyers/owners.

Property prices in Hirafu are only now reaching parity with high profile ski resorts in other countries - have a look at how much a 3 bed room walk to the lifts apartment costs in Australia or France or Switzerland.

As much as they like to believe otherwise, Aussies living in Australia are only one component of the Niseko ski crowd. There are heaps of ex-pats living in Asia who visit and who are not affected by the Australian economy. Many other nationals also visit and likewise they are not burdened by the Aussie economic factors.

Many Aussie buyers bought into Niseko using Australian property as collateral for their loans. Interest rates will be a factor for some, but there are still heaps of people with a lazy 500k worth of equity that they don't need. Also, the banks are finally getting around to granting loans using the Niseko properties as collateral so, even the Aussie interest rates are not as big a factors as some may think.

Niseko development does well due in part to a lack of competition. Once Hakuba comes on line, there will be a drop off in interest simply because people will have a choice, but the idea that Niseko is facing a bubble and that the place is facing some sort of crash - whether to due the Aussie economy, Aussie interest rates or Rudd's bloody ETS is wrong.

[thursday 1]

Visitor number to Japan:

 

The Japan Research Insitute report:

 

Prospects of Growth in the Number of Foreign Visitors to Japan:

- Total Numbers Set to Double Over Next 20 Years as Numbers of Chinese Tourists Rise -

 

Janualy 13, 2006

 

"Projections based on the assumption that China's overseas purchasing power continues to grow suggest that the numbers of Chinese visitors to Japan are set to increase almost tenfold from 0.67 million in 2004 to 6.17 million by 2025. As numbers of foreign visitors to Japan are currently (2004) around the 6.14 million mark, the increase in numbers from China alone will be enough to double total numbers. The boost to the economy provided by the increase in visitor numbers is likely to be of the order of ¦Ó.5 trillion. It is highly that the benefits to the economy will be felt, by sector, chiefly in accommodation, retail, food services, and transportation, and, by geographical area, in major conurbations rather than in provincial regions.

 

Given that numbers of foreign visitors to Japan are highly likely to see a sharp rise, led by an increase in numbers of Chinese tourists, the central government should set about the creation of both "hard" and "soft" infrastructure for the reception of foreign visitors as a matter of priority. To help grow the tourist industry, it is also important that regional governments identify attractions that will differentiate provincial regions from major cities and increase their appeal as tourist destinations. "

 

http://www.jri.co.jp/english/press/press_html/2005/060113-1.html

 

More Kanji signs please.

[tripitaka 0]

Originally Posted By: Rag-Doll

Originally Posted By: Mr Wiggles

For all their visibility and the nonstop hype, how many Aussies actually come to Japan to go skiing? Isn't it still under 30,000? That's not very many people for a wealthy country of twenty odd million to sustain.

Exactly Wiggs.

Trips, have you actually been to Niseko? I remember you posting about Niseko being subject to the Japanese property factors and now you're banging on about other bubbles. Maybe you ought to get up there and check it out, so you have a better idea about what you're talking about.

Here are some facts:

People were buying into Niseko without any extra money being spent on the mountain infrastructure. Equally, plenty of people now visit Niseko even though no money has been spent on the mountain infrstructure.

The Niseko on mountain infrastructure is no worse and in many cases much better than what is available at other resorts. I've been to about 20 on Honshu and Hokkaido - including Shiga, Naeba/Kagura, Happo, Nozawa, Kiroro, Rutsusu, Arai, Myoko Suginohara etc. slow, "romance" lifts seem to be the Japanese national standard for ski resorts.

Off mountain facilities at Hirafu are orders of magnitude better than the vast majority of Japanese resorts - where the choices are often either a poxy 1980's Japanese style hotel that serve dinner at 5pm and close at 8pm or the base station of a ropeway surrounded by minshukus.

Ski properties aren't great investments if you're holding them for the rental return so a drop in the rental market (i.e. a decline in Aussies visiting) isn't going to be a problem for the majority of buyers/owners.

Property prices in Hirafu are only now reaching parity with high profile ski resorts in other countries - have a look at how much a 3 bed room walk to the lifts apartment costs in Australia or France or Switzerland.

As much as they like to believe otherwise, Aussies living in Australia are only one component of the Niseko ski crowd. There are heaps of ex-pats living in Asia who visit and who are not affected by the Australian economy. Many other nationals also visit and likewise they are not burdened by the Aussie economic factors.

Many Aussie buyers bought into Niseko using Australian property as collateral for their loans. Interest rates will be a factor for some, but there are still heaps of people with a lazy 500k worth of equity that they don't need. Also, the banks are finally getting around to granting loans using the Niseko properties as collateral so, even the Aussie interest rates are not as big a factors as some may think.

Niseko development does well due in part to a lack of competition. Once Hakuba comes on line, there will be a drop off in interest simply because people will have a choice, but the idea that Niseko is facing a bubble and that the place is facing some sort of crash - whether to due the Aussie economy, Aussie interest rates or Rudd's bloody ETS is wrong.

Yes, well it's interesting to note that Queenstown (which probably attracts more Aussies than Niseko) is on the verge of a property crash. All the property speculation has been hit by the credit crisis, and some huge developments are in receivership. One of them was planning accommodation for 10,000 people. QT has better infrastructure than Niseko and is an all-year resort.

If I did say that Niseko is going to crash and burn, I take it back. However, I will say that I can't see how it won't be affected by events in Australia, the credit crisis, and global inflation leading to booming infrastructure costs. I think that's just common sense.

[Rag-Doll 0]

Since when is QT any kind of comparison to Niseko? There are hundreds of millions of people within a 5 hr flight of Niseko. There are more millionaires within a 5 hour flight of Niseko than there are people in Aust and NZ combined. Aust in particular needs to get over itself. It just doesn't rate.

 

I think you're missing the point about Niseko and what has gone on there. What has happened to Niseko and what ought to happen to places like Hakuba and Shiga and others is that it got dragged into the global market. Instead of being a local resort designed around Japanese domestic needs with all of its attendant rubbish like omiyage crap, pokey hotel rooms with terrible beds and vending machines and quiet as death after 9pm, it has changed to offer something akin to what is available in the outside world - not saying it is some sort of mini-Les Arcs or Meribel etc, but geez, go for a walk around Shiga Kogen at 9pm and try and find something to do. That is what Niseko used to be like and what so many Japanese resorts still are like. So yes a world recession matched with increasing airfares will have an impact on niseko, just as it will on any other tourist/holiday destination but the change will be incremental, nothing more. It certainly won't mean a fundemental change in the property market other than perhaps stopping it from going completely nutts. Really, do a bit of a search for 3 br apartments in ski resorts and then check out what is on offer in Niseko. The prices at Niseko aren't out of line. If anything they are probably still a little lower - depending. If they were 2 or 3 times higher than other places, sure you could say there is a bubble, but that is simply not the case. Now that the banks are lending against Japanese property, I reckon we can see the market maturing and reaching a fairly stable level. It is still very cheap to borrow yen so perhaps a leveraged market will enable a slightly higher price range than is currently available using offshore finnace, but even that is only really relevant for Aust and NZ resident borrowers. HK and Sing resident borrowers, for example, already have access to fairly cheap money.

[tripitaka 0]

Originally Posted By: Rag-Doll

Since when is QT any kind of comparison to Niseko? There are hundreds of millions of people within a 5 hr flight of Niseko. There are more millionaires within a 5 hour flight of Niseko than there are people in Aust and NZ combined. Aust in particular needs to get over itself. It just doesn't rate.

I think you're missing the point about Niseko and what has gone on there. What has happened to Niseko and what ought to happen to places like Hakuba and Shiga and others is that it got dragged into the global market. Instead of being a local resort designed around Japanese domestic needs with all of its attendant rubbish like omiyage crap, pokey hotel rooms with terrible beds and vending machines and quiet as death after 9pm, it has changed to offer something akin to what is available in the outside world - not saying it is some sort of mini-Les Arcs or Meribel etc, but geez, go for a walk around Shiga Kogen at 9pm and try and find something to do. That is what Niseko used to be like and what so many Japanese resorts still are like. So yes a world recession matched with increasing airfares will have an impact on niseko, just as it will on any other tourist/holiday destination but the change will be incremental, nothing more. It certainly won't mean a fundemental change in the property market other than perhaps stopping it from going completely nutts. Really, do a bit of a search for 3 br apartments in ski resorts and then check out what is on offer in Niseko. The prices at Niseko aren't out of line. If anything they are probably still a little lower - depending. If they were 2 or 3 times higher than other places, sure you could say there is a bubble, but that is simply not the case. Now that the banks are lending against Japanese property, I reckon we can see the market maturing and reaching a fairly stable level. It is still very cheap to borrow yen so perhaps a leveraged market will enable a slightly higher price range than is currently available using offshore finnace, but even that is only really relevant for Aust and NZ resident borrowers. HK and Sing resident borrowers, for example, already have access to fairly cheap money.

You sound like a real estate agent in denial (just kidding!). In my opinion, the prices for property in Niseko are way out of line. You can argue that buying properties isn't expensive In Niseko, but some people have been asking rental charges for condos that would compete with prime real estate in Vail and Aspen. There's no reason to pay such silly prices if it's only about "the quality of the snow". Niseko doesn't have a lick on both those places either when it comes to infrastructure.

Anyway, you're probably right, and I'm perhaps overly conservative and cautious.

[tripitaka 0]

Originally Posted By: Rag-Doll

Since when is QT any kind of comparison to Niseko?

Because both are heavily reliant on Aussie custom (with QT probably having a greater mix of international visitors).

[Rag-Doll 0]

I really think you ought to spend 5 min doing a bit of a search to compare prices. You will be surprised how much more expensive even places like Thredbo are compared to Niseko. I'm not saying this to talk up Niseko, I honestly think it is approaching the peak, if it hasn't reached it already. The season is so short that the annual return isn't worth getting excited about and as Hirafu develops, there will be a saturation point reached where apartments exceed demand. But people like you who have no idea what you are talking about seem to think that some sort of gold rush frenzy is taking place with people pay absurd amounts - it simply isn't the case.

 

Also, to mention it again because you obviously missed it last time - Niseko is not heavily reliant on Australian residents.

Australia could sink beneath the waves and Niseko would continue on quite nicely I would think.