Markie 0 Posted April 30, 2003 Share Posted April 30, 2003 SARS is supposed to have a maximum 10 day incubation period. Markie left Japan on April 21 and now it is April 30 and no SARS cases have been reported in Japan. If any cases do arise in Japan in the future, don't blame me. BTW, Chizuman, how's your cough? Link to post Share on other sites
Oddbod 0 Posted April 30, 2003 Share Posted April 30, 2003 1 more day! Link to post Share on other sites
Markie 0 Posted April 30, 2003 Author Share Posted April 30, 2003 Damn. You'd think I'd have learned to count to ten by now. Oddbod's right, 1 more day to go. However, on second thought, I left Hong Kong for Japan on April 16. So if I had it then, the symptoms would have manifested by April 26 at the latest. Since I'm still healthy (in body despite my sick mind) I could not have had it when I left for Japan so I guess you technically can't blame me even if a case arises today or tomorrow in Japan. Link to post Share on other sites
enderzero 0 Posted April 30, 2003 Share Posted April 30, 2003 It got worse, but now I think it's better. I never felt sick...just sounded sick. No SARS here. Link to post Share on other sites
Fattwins 0 Posted April 30, 2003 Share Posted April 30, 2003 I had a real bad cold the last few days just killed me and maybe my season. I suspect that the wife will catch the cold and next weekend and the weekend after will be right offs Link to post Share on other sites
snowboard_freak 0 Posted April 30, 2003 Share Posted April 30, 2003 Must be the time for colds. sfg/sam has just gotten over a coldy fluey type thing as well. I saw on the news that some people are putting themselves in isolation for 10 days after coming back from China. Good on 'em i say! Link to post Share on other sites
Will Lee 0 Posted April 30, 2003 Share Posted April 30, 2003 Markie, did they give you a bunch of crap at Narita Airport? Link to post Share on other sites
Markie 0 Posted May 1, 2003 Author Share Posted May 1, 2003 Actually, Snoboyaro, the officials at Narita airport were their usual polite and efficient selves. No hassles at all whether arriving or departing. The only crap I saw there was when I looked in the mirror! Link to post Share on other sites
Fattwins 0 Posted May 1, 2003 Share Posted May 1, 2003 At this time of the year North Americans are more worried about the west Nile virus. There seems to be too mny of these damm things around these days. Link to post Share on other sites
Markie 0 Posted May 1, 2003 Author Share Posted May 1, 2003 I hate to say this, but on a serious note, it's just a matter of time before this damn SARS thing hits Japan. Many countries, and even many regions in China have imposed travel restrictions or quarantine conditions on Hong Kong travellers. I just saw on the news here, many here have stated their intention of changing their holiday plans from one of these places to Japan instead where the authorities seem very lax. You only need one unwitting Hong Kong traveller to bring it over and it will proliferate from there. This thing is deadly and highly contagious. The last thing you want is travellers from Hong Kong in large numbers. The risk is not worth it. I think Japan should adopt strictly measures to protect itself. Link to post Share on other sites
Ocean11 0 Posted May 1, 2003 Share Posted May 1, 2003 There are lots of Japanese people coming back from the Chinese affiliates of their companies too. I don't know whether they have to go through the sheep dip at Narita, but I doubt it. Link to post Share on other sites
badmigraine 0 Posted May 1, 2003 Share Posted May 1, 2003 This is just like in Jr. High biology class, where we studied colonies of bugs or rats that grew beyond their maximal population size versus their environment. As the world's population of humans continues to grow, things like plagues and environmental changes will conspire to return it to some state of equilibrium. Human activities greatly increase the numeric effects of these population limiters. Mad cow disease is a great example of disease resulting from unnatural changes brought about by humans, albeit the death toll is not high. Steers/cows naturally eat grasses, not ground up brains and offal as supplements. We devote vast acreage and water to producing grain because grain-fed beef supposedly tastes better. The amount of water and grain used could sustainably feed hundreds of people, but only produce one animal for slaughter, making a few steak meals and burgers for a very few people. The diverted water causes dustbowls and ghost villages, famine and unemployment. Watch for water wars and dustbowl disasters in places like China in the future. International distribution of foodstuffs is like international travel of people...it spreads diseases very effectively. AIDS, Ebola, West Nile Virus, SARS...even the common cold and milder flus take their toll. Yes, SARS is a great example of yet another disease that should/would have remained an animal disease, with maybe one person in some small village every 50 years getting bitten or infected by such animal, but now it is spread like a FedEx virus for everyone to risk. Our little Walled Lake is overrun by zebra mussels . They choke the life out of the lake ecosystem...they came over from the Black Sea decades ago on international freighters, slowly made their way into the Great Lakes, and now are steadily taking over the inland lakes and waterways through recreational boat use. They cut my feet like razors any time I step into the lake...used to be soft sand and muck. I too am something of a virus or cross-pollinator, as I have successfully stolen a fine example of Japanese DNA and brought it back to propagate here in Michigan, in the form of my wife. Link to post Share on other sites
snowboard_freak 0 Posted May 1, 2003 Share Posted May 1, 2003 I'm actually not that concerned about SARS at the moment. The last figures i saw (maybe last week) said that the mortality rate was only around 10% or infected individuals. Which is really pretty low. Although in the last couple of days the number of deaths seems to have jumped from 300 to 375. Thats a bit concerning. Yeah it's a scary virus, no doubt, and has the potential to spread around even more than it has. But considering its been around for a good solid couple of months and has 'only' killed 375, its not too bad yet. Hopefully, the controls that have been set up at the airports will be enough to at least keep it contained. Link to post Share on other sites
Markie 0 Posted May 1, 2003 Author Share Posted May 1, 2003 The mortality rate alone is not scary. It's highly contagious nature is. Despite all the precautions taken at hospitals, a lot of medical staff have been affected, including a friend of mine who is the Head of the I.C.U. at a major hospital here. He himself had to be put into the I.C.U. last week. The mortality rate is closer to 5% than 10%, but because of its highly infectious nature, I believe everyone in H.K. will come in contact with it sooner or later. That means in the long run, a death rate of 5% of the whole population. That's what worries me the most. My main hope is that the brilliant medical minds of the world can come up with a cure and a vaccine soon. Link to post Share on other sites
badmigraine 0 Posted May 1, 2003 Share Posted May 1, 2003 There is some controversy over the calculation of the SARS mortality rate, because many of the figures show number of cases vs. number of deaths. The problem is that there are many people currently suffering from the disease who have not yet either recovered or died. I read that when they run the figures as number of cases that have reached a conclusion vs. number of deaths, the mortality rate comes back around 18% to 20%. That is a lot worse. On the bright side, it is said that children appear to have a far lower mortality rate. In fact, the docs are saying that many more people may well have contracted SARS, but recovered fully and never had symptoms worthy of a hospital visit. Until they perfect a reliable and quick SARS test and start testing everyone who has flu symptoms, nobody will ever know the true SARS mortality rate. The current speculation is that elderly or respiratory-compromised people are the ones who face the higher mortality percentages. Furthermore, the SARS mortality rate for such people is not too different from the rate at which such people die from other flus every year. And SARS appears significantly less contagious than most flus and the common cold. Here's a good source of interesting info, plump with hyperlinks, about all this: The Agonist SARS Thread Scroll down a page or two and start reading at "SARS' Mythical Mortality Rate". Link to post Share on other sites
damian 0 Posted May 1, 2003 Share Posted May 1, 2003 SARS is trouble. Lets say the figures stay as they are (in ratio terms). Assume also that we are unable to identify how it is transmitted, plus unable to find a quick diagnostic test. This describes the status quo. Keep the status quo for another 6 months and places like HK and Singapore are in deep economic trouble. For those that do not live in HK: provide one reason why you would go to HK if the status quo persists? Link to post Share on other sites
badmigraine 0 Posted May 1, 2003 Share Posted May 1, 2003 Great point, db. This is a sad thing because airlines are already reeling from the Sept. 11 debacle. SARS only hastens matters...we may get cheapo tickets for awhile, but if a few more airlines go bust and the market shrinks, I suppose fares will rise considerably and this is just one facet of a bad economic wind. It's a bit mercenary of me to think about economic effects of SARS when there are people sick and dying, but in fact the economic ripple is just another way for SARS to affect people worldwide. Not good! Link to post Share on other sites
Ocean11 0 Posted May 1, 2003 Share Posted May 1, 2003 badmigs, you're also a transmitter of germs like female Japanese wrestling links. I'm showing symptoms of an urge to go out and buy a leotard today... I think you're what's known as a 'vector'. Link to post Share on other sites
snowboard_freak 0 Posted May 1, 2003 Share Posted May 1, 2003 On the price of airline tickets. I went Thailand with a bunch of friends about 18 months ago. The flight from Sydney to Bangkok was a little over $800. And that was with Qanats, normally quite expensive compared to other airlines. However, i am going back in July flying Thai Airways i think and the flight is around $1100. That is a fair bloody jump in price in such a short time. Also, my mother had to fly to NZ for an emergency as her aunt is very unwell. It cost her $1000. Yep, $1000. Its only a 3 hour flight!! Friggin' joke. Oh all prices are in Aussie dollars! No doubt that SARS is a worry. If it spreads to other parts of Asia i might be reconsidering going to Thailand. But at the moment, i'm not too concerned. That said, if i was going to be visiting China or Hong Kong i would have cancelled by now. Link to post Share on other sites
amandanism 0 Posted May 1, 2003 Share Posted May 1, 2003 im going to thailand in may. its costing me 500 bucks. from singapore to koh samui to bangkok to singapore. thats a joke! and we are flying bangkok air, or something equally as sketchy. SIA is seriously suffering at the moment. 6600 employees are being forced to take unpaid leave and 99 flights a week cut. Link to post Share on other sites
enderzero 0 Posted May 2, 2003 Share Posted May 2, 2003 What do you guys think about a July visit to Bali? SARS? Terrorism? Would you stay away? Link to post Share on other sites
snowboard_freak 0 Posted May 2, 2003 Share Posted May 2, 2003 As far as i know there hasn't been many, or any, SARS cases in Bali. But i could be wrong. I haven't checked, but i haven't heard of any cases yet. Terrorism - well i reckon you'd be sweet. I mean there is a risk, but then again there is a risk at a lot of places. If it were me, I'd go. I try not to let terrorism and all the rest of it interupt my life. Unless of course the danger is high. Link to post Share on other sites
sunrise 0 Posted May 3, 2003 Share Posted May 3, 2003 I hope your friend is okay, Markie. Glad to hear that you're okay.... How was your trip to Japan by the way? Link to post Share on other sites
indosnm 0 Posted May 3, 2003 Share Posted May 3, 2003 Ender-Z! Bali will be cool. Nite life is still alittle quiet but fun to be had a heaps of waves. The trials of the bali bombers are on at the moment and the main suspect is due to go on the 12th of May. I would go if I was you! (I would normally be there now....but) Link to post Share on other sites
Markie 0 Posted May 3, 2003 Author Share Posted May 3, 2003 Sunrise, hearing from you always brightens my day so you have a very appropriate label. In fact, just a couple of hours ago, I was thinking to myself, "sunrise hasn't posted for some time, she must be very busy, I wonder how the recording is going." Thankfully, I am still very healthy. My doctor friend was in the I.C.U. for a few days last week but this week he was transferred to an ordinary ward. He is condition is still serious though. Every time the phone rings and the caller display is from any of the circle of our mutual friends my heart jumps. Day before yesterday, I received two such calls. Both were just to say,"Hey, what are you doing for dinner? Join us?" i.e. false alarm. Such is the nervousness of the mood here. Similarly, any time anyone gets some flu symptoms or a bit of a fever, everyone goes paranoiac. On a happier note, I had a great time in Japan. Enderzero, showed me around and took me to a lot of cool spots. I was very honoured to meet a great bunch of SJ forum dudes including Danz after he had lost his beard but when still had his arms and head, Mogski from whom I collected on my Americas Cup wager and db who gave me a big black eye for watching Ally McBeal and set me straight (I am very grateful to him for that) and many others. I would have liked to had met with Ocean, the man of eternal wisdom, while I was in Nagano but my time there was too short. I was having such I good time, I nearly missed out on my main reason of going - the snow. In the end, I got in one full day of skiing at Arai and was very delightfully surprised at the quality of the snow for that time and temperature. Topped that up with some fine dining and onsen at the lavish Arai facilities - highly recommended. You can imagine how hard it was for me to return to the bacteria/virus cesspool I call home the next day. Not to worry, I will be back in my beloved J-Land soon, probably before the next snow-season, at the first chance of a few days of holidays I can wangle. Next time I will have to time it so that my pianist-idol is in Tokyo and I can see her perform. Link to post Share on other sites
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