kaiser soce 0 Posted January 8, 2006 Share Posted January 8, 2006 I understand with the current snow conditions that a great deal of caution is required. Is it fair to say that if an area gets ridden in from early on in the season that it helps snow to compact and bond reducing the chance of avalanche danger paticularly deep slides? Therefore an area that has not been touched with a few meters of snow on it be more likely to slide? I know this is a gross over generalisation but interested in your comments. Link to post Share on other sites
montoya 0 Posted January 8, 2006 Share Posted January 8, 2006 there was a big thread on this topic last year on ttips, here's the link: http://www.telemarktalk.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=5294 Link to post Share on other sites
JohnG 0 Posted January 8, 2006 Share Posted January 8, 2006 another thread from this year http://telemarktalk.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=15316 Link to post Share on other sites
kaiser soce 0 Posted January 9, 2006 Author Share Posted January 9, 2006 Thanks guys.....they are great threads. Link to post Share on other sites
Fattwins 0 Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 If you have to ask that question, then you need to then think about whether or not you are ready to head into the backcountry. Link to post Share on other sites
kaiser soce 0 Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Its all about learning mate.......Thanks for the reply anyway. Link to post Share on other sites
Fattwins 0 Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 Its not meant to be an insult but something to really think about. There is more to understanding BC travel then a simple yes or no to your question. a heavily skied slope can be perfect one day and ready to go the next day for any number of reasons. Take a place like Utah for example. Link to post Share on other sites
Powdagroova 0 Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 snow compaction creates friction and disturbance that should create nice rounded bonded layers. But a big f'n dump on top of that will still be subject to the pre-storm history, depositional history and post storm history. Tracks can be pretty decieving, say a couple of solo tracks. An untrained eye may not notice that those tracks just happened to skirt all the major minefields in that silky smooth line. Then the dude says, yo it didn't go with those tracks, lets rock. and they ski over a nice wind loaded pillow, kicking off something that will only create a step down situation obiliterating you and all your crew on that tempting slope. That's why fat twinnies was so blunt. Over and out from Canada, the land that rules all. Nathan Link to post Share on other sites
kaiser soce 0 Posted January 11, 2006 Author Share Posted January 11, 2006 Thanks for helping with your fellow forum members education...much appreciated! Yeah I understand that a few or even many tracks for that matter does not mean the slope is safe. I was more asking the question to help myself understand why places like Niseko gets so few avalanches when they have a healthy annual snowfall and many slopes at prime sliding gradients. I was trying to theorize why this may be and I thought that one possible reason might be because alot of Niseko's off piste gets ridden HEAPS and also early on in the snowpacks timeline as well. I agree definately that if there is a big fresh dump just sitting on top then it could be very likely to slide anyway and that is why I specified a deep slide. My question may have seemed like it was being asked by the next avalanche victim looking for an easy answer to a complicated topic but I can assure you I put a little more thought in it than that. Link to post Share on other sites
Fattwins 0 Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 thanks nate, it does go even deeper than what he is saying. Niseko will go one day and it will be bad. What you need to do is read a book and take a basic course you need to see what or where problems start. Link to post Share on other sites
Powdagroova 0 Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 Yeah, Niseko is certainly due, and it's only a matter of time. But to be honest, Japan generally gets the most consistantly stable snow packs 2-3 days after a storm I've ever witnessed. Look up coastal snow pack, like whistler and you'll find out what I'm talking about. Niseko is also so increadibly flat that during the dumps, the snow is so unconsolidated, it generally wont do much but sluff, and most of those happen during or after the storm, depending on windyness and a bazzillian other factors... This is not taking into account the effect of all that salt in the snow pack... which seems to keep melt freeze layers way active a lot longer than I've ever seen in Canada. Of course those volcanic peaks around the Hirafu range are just waiting to kill some carefree powderjunkie. Another factor is the fact that in Japan in general there really are no people in the back-country, truely pushing it say like what happens in other mountainous regions in the world...n that changes a lot of people are going to start going for more rides... That is changing, and if you look into that fatal incident so oft described by Big Daddy E. with the kiwi's at happo, it's pretty much proven that as soon as someone takes mother N. for granted in J-land, they get schooled. Go to school before ullar bumps you down a grade &U remember, when slides happen in the Hakuba region, they go big, class 4 big. Those conditions generally had nothing to do with the dumps, but what happens post dump, say a week after when everyone has stopped thinking and started boozing. Havind said that, Kutchan does have an A grade hospital, with some very attentive nurses... But finding anyone up at Niseko you can trust to dig you out when you do bite it is going to take some real searching... Course not withstanding Mr Carty, the waz and some other bro's who seem to take the snow somewhat seriously up there. Nathan Link to post Share on other sites
Powdagroova 0 Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 PS twinnie man, I finally got the Kneissl tankers dude, sooooo stoked. Castle mountain just got 168cms in the past couple of days, so the bc is out, but the terrain still rules! Peace out, Natedawg Link to post Share on other sites
Powdagroova 0 Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 PS, if any of you pow dr's in training can pick out the 10 big generalizations I've made about japan's avi scene and can pick out the one that's most likely to grease your typical naive nisekoite that just walked off a direct flight, you may be the weiner of a discount avi lesson. Natedawg Link to post Share on other sites
Powdagroova 0 Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 Nice, I got 5 stars. Funny that's what my girl gave me last night... Link to post Share on other sites
Powdagroova 0 Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 Fattytwinny, How come you got bumped to 4. Been pissin off the bitches, or just the jaffa's? Link to post Share on other sites
Fattwins 0 Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 ive been at 4 for 2 years man. Link to post Share on other sites
kaiser soce 0 Posted January 12, 2006 Author Share Posted January 12, 2006 Quote: Originally posted by Powdagroova: Yeah, Niseko is certainly due, and it's only a matter of time. But to be honest, Japan generally gets the most consistantly stable snow packs 2-3 days after a storm I've ever witnessed. Look up coastal snow pack, like whistler and you'll find out what I'm talking about. Niseko is also so increadibly flat that during the dumps, the snow is so unconsolidated, it generally wont do much but sluff, and most of those happen during or after the storm, depending on windyness and a bazzillian other factors... This is not taking into account the effect of all that salt in the snow pack... which seems to keep melt freeze layers way active a lot longer than I've ever seen in Canada. Of course those volcanic peaks around the Hirafu range are just waiting to kill some carefree powderjunkie. Another factor is the fact that in Japan in general there really are no people in the back-country, truely pushing it say like what happens in other mountainous regions in the world...n that changes a lot of people are going to start going for more rides... That is changing, and if you look into that fatal incident so oft described by Big Daddy E. with the kiwi's at happo, it's pretty much proven that as soon as someone takes mother N. for granted in J-land, they get schooled. Go to school before ullar bumps you down a grade &U remember, when slides happen in the Hakuba region, they go big, class 4 big. Those conditions generally had nothing to do with the dumps, but what happens post dump, say a week after when everyone has stopped thinking and started boozing. Havind said that, Kutchan does have an A grade hospital, with some very attentive nurses... But finding anyone up at Niseko you can trust to dig you out when you do bite it is going to take some real searching... Course not withstanding Mr Carty, the waz and some other bro's who seem to take the snow somewhat seriously up there. Nathan DUDE...... great info.....she sure is a technichal beast! I am very interested in doing an avie course, what qualifications does someone need to be able to run such a program. If I am gonna get schooled I wanna make sure it isnt by some retard! Link to post Share on other sites
snobee 0 Posted January 15, 2006 Share Posted January 15, 2006 All very interesting stuff - a good read. With the bottom line being a myriad of factors can cause instability - isothermal, compaction, bonding, pitch, etc, etc. So just asking for a learned guess from you experienced guys, about what may have caused the big shift at Mizuho, west Japan yesterday (14th). From TV report it seems the whole course upper slab (course wide) broke off and ran 600+m. The course Big Morning is rated intermediate+, is wide and longish (2k) and the top is the steepest at about 30deg I think. It had a depth of about 190+cm, pretty good for earlier January. It would be one of the most frequently ridden courses. I know the first Law of Avalanche prediction is - 1. There are no Laws But I'm thinking that this years unusually cold dry snow - unusual for west - just didn't have the bonding qualities needed to consolidate and gave way on the first warmish/wetter day. As some grass/soil appeared higher up the sliding slab must have been deep, not a top layer. If my reasoning is a little on track, good drier snow doesn't doesn't equal a stable pack??? Any comments? Link to post Share on other sites
bushpig 0 Posted January 16, 2006 Share Posted January 16, 2006 Just to add to that. Even before the warm weather and rain (in fact pretty soon after all that initial snow), a huge crack opened up at the top of where that slid. They promptly roped off the area, but you could still ski onto the area just below it. I edged over as close as I could from another section and saw quite a gap in the almost 2m base. Link to post Share on other sites
damian 0 Posted January 17, 2006 Share Posted January 17, 2006 Quote: Originally posted by halfmachine: Is it fair to say that if an area gets ridden in from early on in the season that it helps snow to compact and bond reducing the chance of avalanche danger paticularly deep slides? This post is not designed to contradict the vastly (massively) more experienced guys who have already posted The best I can tell, the Swiss Institute for Snow and Av Research do actually regard a heavily tracked slope as a favourable attribute that aids stability. HOWEVER; this is not due to a history of compaction as was postulated by halfmachine. Rather, the slight risk mitigation comes from the fact that the surface which receives a new layer is not a smooth, old snow surface. So what. Please keep in mind: - I am not an expert, I am a beginner, just interpreting what I read. - Switzerland is not Niseko. - This is only one of many factors influencing probability of slide. - Unless you ride a slope all the time you have no idea how cut up it was before the dump. I can see the logic in a strongly irregular old snow surface making conditions more favourable. But I can also see the lazy minded BC rider quickly focusing on that fact alone when they are hounding out like heroes to hit it up the morning after a dump (or strong wind, or both). Link to post Share on other sites
montoya 0 Posted January 17, 2006 Share Posted January 17, 2006 Quote: Originally posted by _spud: the lazy minded BC rider .. I was looking for the right words when I saw this recently (besides "idiot"). Thanks spud, 'lazy minded BC rider' fits just about right here. Some people never learn. Link to post Share on other sites
damian 0 Posted January 17, 2006 Share Posted January 17, 2006 Hi Montoya, I am slowly learning to tone down my adjectives. It is better than my frequent offending.... That picture really is quite amazing. At least from appearances, the risk looks high. And certainly from the photo alone there is one very obvious relatively safe path up and one very obvious very unsafe path up. He chose B. Link to post Share on other sites
woywoy 0 Posted January 17, 2006 Share Posted January 17, 2006 And ... he is alone! Link to post Share on other sites
Kumapix 0 Posted January 18, 2006 Share Posted January 18, 2006 Ok, I am less than a beginner..can you tell me all the dangers in that pic. Ones I can see are: 1. like NPM said, he's alone 2. the path up the ridge on the left would be safest 3. there's a fat cornice 4. no trees on that face which possibly indicates an avanlance prone area 5. it's an open face and it's sunny please correct me if I made a mistake Link to post Share on other sites
montoya 0 Posted January 18, 2006 Share Posted January 18, 2006 well first he's traversing under a very large crack. here's a pic from Dec 17 2005 for comparison's sake: Link to post Share on other sites
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