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Alex, if you have to book in advance come in January/February when Niseko is as guaranteed as it gets. Otherwise you're at the mercy of the snow gods and nobody can say what conditions will be like. From Tokyo we have to book at least 10 days in advance to take advantage of the best deals, and while I'm planning a four-day trip from Dec. 19, I may not book it until I see how things are looking by early December.

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It's normally ok on-piste by then. Off-piste there would usually still be a lot of sasa grass (bamboo) sticking through. But as DiGriz points out early season is variable. There could be little skiable snow and there could be waist deep pow. All depends on the year.

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GN, I believe you've mentioned in the past that Kurodake is usually open by early December.

If Freezee booked only airtix and it turned out to be a late start at Niseko, would renting a car and heading up to Kurodake be a reasonable alternative?

I can't imagine it would be terribly hard to find a place to stay near there.

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I think everyone has usmmed it up pretty well. It's a gamble. It may be average or it may be huge. Either way as GN says there will be heaps of sasa around and most back country won't be open even if it snows heaps. One plus is if it is a big start to the season you wont have to share it with as many people:)

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Kurodake is an alternative . Only thing is it's not much of a ski resort. The piste accessed by the lift above the ropeway is pretty flat. The good stuff is all sidecountry/backcountry under the ropeway (which may not have enough snow if Niseko doesn't have enough) or above the top lift. For both areas I would advise a guide. Especially under the ropeway it is pretty easy to funnel into some slopes which end in big cliffs. A few years back a group of Niseko locals ascended the peak and then got lost on the way back to the base and ended up spending the night in the open with nothing more than the clothes on their back. Luckily for them it wasn't an overly cold night as it can get really cold up that way, much colder than around Niseko. Really worth getting a guide! The whole Kurodake annual trip was usually just a group of us getting away for a piss up with the novelty of some really early season skiing thrown in. A bit closer to Niseko it's worth checking out Kiroro or Sapporo Kokusai. Both have significantly higher base elevations than Niseko and receive as much, if not more snow.

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Yes, Kiroro's a top choice for my late December trips. Haven't been to Kokusai for quite a while now; it always seemed to be very crowded, but then again in those days I was always stuck going over long weekends. I should give it another try.

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