Mantas 3 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 Whilst I only have a basic grasp of global economics, and I know some of you work in financial markets, I was wondering what you guys thought about the current situation in the US and the flow on effects to the rest of the world. My take on it is that the US is in real trouble. Link to post Share on other sites
spook 0 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 all i know is i have lost a shedload of money on the stockmarket in the last few weeks! Link to post Share on other sites
Domokun_72dpi 0 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 Yup. This is going to be huge. really looking forward to a few educated suggestions here. Time to rely on your credit card less, eat @ home, spend less, and get ensure you can pay your mortgage easily for the next 18 months... Oh, and I hope no-one is hoping to retire on your Superannuation... Isn't it bad that in the last 2 years, the Australian government pushed like hell to get peolle to invest in super?.... hmmm... I smell something fishy.. On the flip side: Recession = 1) Less consumerism, less productivity, less impact on the environment 2) Possible cheaper holidays (whilst prices may rise on certain things, others drop as people need to amp up tourism to boost economy). 3) The US takes a good look at itself and spends less on "Global terrorism", and more on the people 4) Cheap Stocks if you want to buy in now... The world will still turn, we will still breathe, tomorrow will always be another day. Link to post Share on other sites
spook 0 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 Originally Posted By: Domokun_72dpi Yup.Isn't it bad that in the last 2 years, the Australian government pushed like hell to get peolle to invest in super?.... hmmm... I smell something fishy.. 3) The US takes a good look at itself and spends less on "Global terrorism", and more on the people what on earth are you suggesting domo? do you honestly think that there is some sort of conspiracy in the australian government encouraging people to save for their retirement? sharemarkets go up and down, but over time they expeience grotwh. over 40 years, money invested in superannuation funds will grow significantly and i thought the spark of this current correction/crash was reckless lending by US banks, not the deployment of US security forces Link to post Share on other sites
indosnm 0 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 Yep The US is in the shit but we knew that and the greedy banks did it to themselves with all those SP loans. Reporting season will be a blood bath and in OZ we should see some light emerging mid Feb I hope. Value is emerging now and the smart will be onto it once we end the downtrend. Mantas, that boat... I just lost it.. Ouch Link to post Share on other sites
bushpig 0 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 Indo, did you hold off on sending money home? I did and am bloody glad! The Aus dollar is almost back down to 90 against the yen now! Link to post Share on other sites
Domokun_72dpi 0 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 Spook, I know jack all about this stuff mate, just saying it would make a great global conspiracy... (I actualyl have a movie concept based on the cold war & the internet).. I am just being creative, since my logical sense sucks Is it a bad time to convert to Yen then?.. or should I consider getting some?... Link to post Share on other sites
spook 0 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 that's cool, i was just struggling to see the links you were making and truth can be stranger than fiction sometimes Link to post Share on other sites
HelperElfMissy 42 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 ....And there have been many Aussie Retiree's who have lost thier superannuation savings through the bad decisions of private investment groups. Clearly these people had all thier eggs in one basket - but from what I have read, most of these people believed thier savings were pretty much guarenteed to be safe. People are getting more savvy with thier superannuation investments, but I HEAR IT A LOT from people in thier 50's that they suspect the whole thing to cave in on them, that it is all a government consipracy. Being a GenXer - I think they are all cynics and losing their marbles prematurely - but we GenXers have been proven wrong before!! LOL Link to post Share on other sites
indosnm 0 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 Originally Posted By: Bushpig Indo, did you hold off on sending money home? I did and am bloody glad! The Aus dollar is almost back down to 90 against the yen now! Mate, I haven't sent much back since August so holding it here has and hopefully getting a rate under 90 might help offset the 15K that I am down this year! Link to post Share on other sites
bushpig 0 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 sweet! I'm waiting for that last dive under 90, and then bang! Link to post Share on other sites
Mantas 3 Posted January 22, 2008 Author Share Posted January 22, 2008 Stuff you blokes, my J holiday is getting dearer and dearer. Link to post Share on other sites
bushpig 0 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 Well this is my life bloody savings! Link to post Share on other sites
tripitaka 0 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 Aussies don't have a sub-prime crisis but they have some of the worst private debt levels in the developed world. People are literally robbing Peter to pay Paul to maintain a lifestyle that they're not prepared to save for. Also, Aussies believe that property values only go up so they think that their houses will provide a pension for them. Link to post Share on other sites
samurai 0 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 I know nothing about economics except that they're rarely in my favor. If a recession is on the horizon, then I see that as a time to up the education and training. Because when the job market swings the other way, it's nice to be a leader. At least, that's my long-term plan. If there is a major crunch next year and little prospect for career growth, time for a doctorate. Link to post Share on other sites
gerard 6 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 Originally Posted By: samurai I know nothing about economics except that they're rarely in my favor. Originally Posted By: Mamabear Being a GenXer - bla bla bla - but we GenXers have been proven wrong before!! LOL Originally Posted By: Indo Mantas, that boat... I just lost it.. Ouch Originally Posted By: Mantas Whilst I only have a basic grasp of global economics.... Originally Posted By: spook all i know is i have lost a shedload of money on the stockmarket in the last few weeks! Originally Posted By: Domokun_72dpi Spook, I know jack all about this stuff mate... You guys sound like a bunch of slackers Where's T-day and the Hong Kong crew. Maybe they can shed some light on the situation. Link to post Share on other sites
Mantas 3 Posted January 22, 2008 Author Share Posted January 22, 2008 >If there is a major crunch next year and little prospect for career growth, time for a doctorate.< Bugger that. Do a plumbing course. Link to post Share on other sites
Mantas 3 Posted January 22, 2008 Author Share Posted January 22, 2008 Originally Posted By: ger Originally Posted By: samurai I know nothing about economics except that they're rarely in my favor. Originally Posted By: Mamabear Being a GenXer - bla bla bla - but we GenXers have been proven wrong before!! LOL Originally Posted By: Indo Mantas, that boat... I just lost it.. Ouch Originally Posted By: Mantas Whilst I only have a basic grasp of global economics.... Originally Posted By: spook all i know is i have lost a shedload of money on the stockmarket in the last few weeks! Originally Posted By: Domokun_72dpi Spook, I know jack all about this stuff mate... You guys sound like a bunch of slackers Where's T-day and the Hong Kong crew. Maybe they can shed some light on the situation. Thats what I asked for when I started the thread. Come on you Gurus! Justify that big salary to us. Link to post Share on other sites
Kingofmyrrh 0 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 I would say they are busy fighting fires... H-shares nearly 10% down at one point. Link to post Share on other sites
spook 0 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 i could trot out all sorts of stuff that i've been reading for the past 6 months, but i have only a limited understanding of economic matters, and would be torn to bits by those in the know. would be interesting to read others input. t-day is in banking isn't he? basically i read all sorts of opinion pieces and try and wean what i can out of them, but i'm not sure all the writers themselves can predict the future either. the best case (and the one i'm hoping for) is for market volatility over the next few months, followed by growth in the second half of 2008, but at a slower rate that the past few years. up until a week ago analysts were still prediciting an 8-10% rise in the ASX for 2008. fundamentals in australia are still good, so we should ride it out i don't know much about other markets so can't comment there. I’ve pinched this from a newsletter with regards to Oz in 2008: Positives: 1. Strong employment; 2. Consumer spending is holding up well; 3. Income tax cuts effective 1 July 2008 as announced in the May budget; 4. Booming resources sector; 5. Business lending remains strong; and 6. Positive business investment environment, particularly in the infrastructure and mining sectors. Negatives/Risks: 1. With a buoyant and tight employment market, there is a risk that wages pressure and, consequently, infl ation pressure may emerge. The debt markets are pricing in at least one more interest rate rise; 2. Crude oil prices are trading just above the US$90/barrel mark; 3. The fl ow on impact of a US recession; 4. Fallout from and fl ow-on effects of problems in the US sub-prime debt market; 5. The size of the current account defi cit; and 6. Drought. Other: 1. Impact of policy changes following the change in the federal government; 2. Strength in the Australian dollar versus the US currency. This may lower import prices, which is a positive for consumer spending, but negative for exports; and 3. Climate change is gaining momentum in the Australian political arena. The new federal government has effectively ratifi ed the Kyoto protocol. While any policy initiatives may potentially have actual longer term economic implications, there are possible shorter term sentiment consequences/issues. For the world economy, the major areas of focus remain the following: 1. The relatively high oil price and its impact on infl ation, interest rates and consumer spending; 2. Growth in China and India and the impact on commodity prices; 3. Outlook for US interest rates; 4. Funding of US twin defi cits (fi scal and current account); 5. Fallout from and fl ow-on effects of problems in the US sub-prime debt market, including a tighter credit market and potential asset price defl ation in the US; 6. Fears that the US economy is heading into a recession; 7. Middle East tensions; and 8. Depreciating US dollar and the impact this may have on continued willingness of international investors to fund US borrowings as well as upon sovereign foreign reserve policies. Link to post Share on other sites
Mantas 3 Posted January 22, 2008 Author Share Posted January 22, 2008 Aussie market down 4% today, that's down 20% from November high. Top marks Spook. Link to post Share on other sites
gerard 6 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 The biggest Canadian market was down 5% last night. Down 11.4% in the last 5 sessions. Link to post Share on other sites
indosnm 0 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 ASX was down for the 12th consecutive day today. Green was no where to be seen. Panic and irrational selling (margin loans triggering selling) has knocked alot of stocks back to prices after last august.. where to from here? Will be interesting to see what old wall st does tonight. Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 Just my take on it, price of funds can go down as well as up. Seek advice from your financial consultant. And if you're a margin trader, and have not been called yet, expect a call this afternoon. If the US market was open yesterday, it would’ve been a lot worse, as it is, it’s already spiralling. But they had yesterday as a closed floodgate. If you like, Martin Luther King saved the day, but only a day. What has been realised lately? a) that whatever stimulus plan or interest rate cut can only ease the pain rather than solve the problem. the problem needs time to heal, and c) more, lots more skeletons to be uncovered The sooner the big houses come clean with their sub-prime write downs, and realistic ones, not several announcements spaced apart to make it look less worse than it is, then the better. Wipe the slate clean and start again. If liquidity can save the day, then perhaps we are seeing a 2-3 year recovery. If Jim Rogers is correct, US would do well to come out of this if it can wriggle itself out in half the time that affected Japan. That's half of 15/16years! That’s the US. Wait ‘til you see the skeletons in the UK. Northern Rock is just candy in comparison. And there’s more…. BDI, Baltic Dry Index has fallen 30% since the start of the year. The index tracks shipping costs of commodities. Low cost = low demand. Slowdown then recession. Oh, and Dan Sullivan's model stock portfolio is now 100% in cash. What kinda portfolio is that? A safe one as it seems. We've been liquidating the double digit gainers for a time now. But 100% cash sounds too gloomy. But the short term tactic now, is to sell on the bounce. Hell yes, EVERYBODY is waiting for that one. Back to the slaughter house. Link to post Share on other sites
grungy-gonads 54 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 I was just about to say that!! (Thanks, thursday) Link to post Share on other sites
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