Are we heading for some avo fatalities?

[powda tele 0]

I don't believe in fate, so I'm going to bring this up. What do others think?

 

Around Niseko, I've been noticing more and more people heading off-piste from the resorts. If you looked into the avo-prone back bowl of Anapuri last year, you'd be lucky to see a few tracks a month. The other day I could have seen 20 or so, and that was after a week of storms. Surely this increase in BC riders couldn't be matched by an equivalent increase in skilled riders who also have the appropriate BC knowledge.

 

I was out a few weeks ago with my BC boarding buddies and we saw two small slides that had been triggered by riders. Nothing major, but signs of instability. The same day, we came across a LOT of boarders without any probes, shovels, beacons, or even daypacks. (Not hassling boarders here, just that that's who we came across, and they account for a majority of the up-and-coming BC riders.)

 

Is this a Hokkaido trend, or a Niseko trend, or a more general Japan trend?

 

Are the number of people heading BC increasing so fast, without the increase in skills and avo-awareness, that we're heading for a depressing season in the near future?

 

I should say that I'm no avo expert. I've got a lot to learn. I carry the gear, try to learn more and more about it, and look out for my fellow riders. But I'm pretty worried about what I see looming in the future.

[Plucky 0]

 Quote:

Originally posted by powda tele:
I don't believe in fate........

(has to be one of my worst photoshops ever... )

Seriously though, where I go for BC, I've noticed most people are pretty prepared. At Hakkoda or Hachimantai Forest almost everyone you see that heads off-piste has at least a pack with some gear in it. Most have shovels and shoes with them. I saw a bunch of guys with transceivers last week at the Forest also. I think these two places cater to the BC folks, though, and run training classes and teach responsibility while out there. All of the gear in the world won't help much with a slide like in the photo above. Knowledge is the key and knowing when and where to go is very important. In this case, I think fate can play a part. Sometimes a slab will just release, even under the most benign conditions. Unfortunately, many people in North America have been finding this out in the last few years.

[Fattwins 0]

Yes and No Lots of Japanese have gear but make stupid choices ie heading up in storms or just after a big dump and not letting the snow settle.

 

I would figure most of the guys hitting that line your talking about in Niseko are unprepared. Maybe people on vacation for like 2 weeks who see a line down there and just hike and go.

 

Before you go with a guide find out more about them. When and why do think its safe.

[damian 0]

I don't know the answer, but a few gnarly avo fatalities each year is certainly required to keep business up at avie awareness training businesses. Macabre but no doubt there is a correlation.

[enderzero 0]

I think Niseko is due for some sad news sometime soon. People assume that they open the peak when it is safe to ride but that has nothing to do with it. They open the peak when the weather is nice. It could dump a meter overnight and then clear up in the morning and you'd see people hiking up at 8:30. Hello!? Those back bowls and even little traps like Jackson's are just primed for trouble.

[mattlucas 0]

I think that it is not just Japan though. Internationally there are going to be more and more deaths. More people are finding the need to go backcountry to get untouched snow. Whether its by leaving a ski hill or hiking for everything there are going to be more.

[Siem Reeves 0]

well, when i was in niseko, there were a crazy number of people hiking to the summit the last day i was there, a steady stream... and very, very few of them had any gear... and who knows whether the ones who did have a pack at all carried any avalanche gear.

 

fortunately, the japanese people i ride with are really responsible... most have all the gear, have done courses and regularly dig tests in the snow to check stability. they often head to hachimatai on powder days. riding with them is great, everyone is looking out for each other, and while we have a lot of fun, we also try to be aware of the dangers...

[enderzero 0]

People need to understand that it is far more important to know when it is not safe to ride than to just have the proper back country equipment.

[Fattwins 0]

Now you are talking better than the first week at tsugaike when you said I dont care about avlanches.

[enderzero 0]

I believe you are misquoting me there. I think I was saying I wasn't worried about slides in a particular area although admittedly I didn't know what I was talking about then.

[Roger's head 0]

I know next to nothing on the subject, but are there any warning signs for an avo - like just before one's gonna come on down?

[miteyak 0]

There are always warning signs, it's just whether you can see them/look hard enough/are in a position to check thoroughly enough.

 

As for increased fatalities, yes, and beacons will both help and hinder. far too many people, new to the mountains, use safety gear/a little avo knowledge to ski the margins, forgetting, perhaps, that 30% of avo fatalities are from trauma.

 

As for Japan, they already have enough nonsensicle deaths from avos by people who should know better... all that macho gambaru spirit. This year alone, I've witnessed many BC groups heading out regardless of weather conditions... knowing where they were headed, they were definitely playing the odds.

[Roger's head 0]

OK thanks. but, for example - what?

[miteyak 0]

snowballing of snow on slopes, non-cohesive layers (, cracks appearing in the surface at points of stress, small slides, 'wumphing' sounds...the obvious stuff (the last three should have you crapping yer pants...)

 

Less obvious, recent weather conditions, snowfall, wind strength and direction, sudden large temperature changes, layers of ice/ball-bearings deep under the snow, surface material...etc.

 

Suffice to say, avalanches are slaves of science, thus pretty much avoidable (if, of course, you're willing to play it safe and give up many days on the steep and deep)

[Roger's head 0]

thanks, interesting -and common sense I supose

[telechick 0]

I definitely agree taht`s it:s not just a Japan problem... I always run into people in BC who don:t have a clue what they`re doing but are out there anyway. Scary. In Bc the avalanche deaths last year were so high it was awful, and some say taht it:s because of climactic change that even people with experience are havinga tougher time predicting the whens and wheres. Taking an avi course is always the best way for individual enlightenment. Will also put a bit of fear in you, which never hurts.

[powda tele 0]

Perhaps in my initial message/question, I should have included a feeling that a lot of Aussies and Kiwis are coming over from relatively safe areas and venturing into deep and steep powder. Generally, I feel, they come for short holidays without the knowledge or gear. I'm not blaming them, I came to Japan just as avo-ignorant as well, but I think it's going to contribute to the problem.

 

Last week I met two Japanese guys out on one of their first BC boarding trips. It was full-on white out and there was no-one else about. They saw our tracks leading off the ridge into a nice bowl and wanted to follow, but they were waiting for it to clear. Sensibly, they knew their limits, were well aware of their inexperience, and were worried about possible consequences of blindly following tracks into bowls in a white-out. They were happy to follow us back down into the bowl that magically cleared just off the ridge, providing good safe powder. At least they had the sense not to tackle something over their head.

 

That reminds me of something I recently read somewhere: "Just because I see tracks, doesn't mean they are signs of intelligent life."

 

Looking out my office window I see big fat flakes coming down. Hmmm. Freshies! Happy turns.

[quattro 1]

I took an avalanche course a few years back. I was pretty interesting learned a lot. We got to practice using beacons digging pits and what to look for, probe lines. But one of the few things that really struck me was the fact that if your party cant self rescue, your pretty much SOL. If a rescue party has to come up to have to help the only thing they will be looking for is body. The chance of surviving an avi after being buried for 15 minutes goes down dramatically. The point is make sure you know the conditions make sure everyone knows how to use there avalanche rescue gear. Practice using it. Come to think of it I’m probably about due to take a course again.