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Financials - interest rates/exchange rates/other forces


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Ok....

confused.

 

I thought we would see a big drop in the AUD again, especially seeing as the RBA dropped the rate by an unexpected 3/4 of a percent... not as yet. In fact there still seems to be some rallying.

 

Do you think that the distraction of the US election might see the AUD stay a bit more stable through this rate cut? I sure hope so!

 

 

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veronica, I think you sum up the collective wisdom of the whole economic expertise of all economics journalists the world over!

 

They mostly have NFI as well!

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The pound had another bad week, even less than it was the week before. Closely watching to see how things go from now on. Can't believe where it is now, I want my years salary in advance!

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Sometimes a big cut in interest rates is interpreted as a sign of the central bank taking positive action to improve things. That can give people faith in the currency again.

 

A big one for the Aus dollar is the global appetite for risk that drives the carry trade. There are currencies with higher interest rates than the Aus dollar, so the rate is only part of the picture.

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this from one of my angry friends

 

Quote:
Yes....the symbol of USA is as good as a LAME DUCK at this juncture!

 

Lame Duck #1: New US administration in transition and no one believe anything concrete will be done before Jan24th.

 

Lame Duck #2: President-elect Obama surprisingly delayed the appointment of his Treasury Secretary creating more (unnecessary) market uncertainty

 

Lame Duck #3: Incumbent Trsy Sec decided to protect himself by (literally) stop working! Worse, not only did he announced an about-turn in bailout strategy (which in all fairness is commendable), he decided to leave it to the new admin to decide on how to utilise the remaining $350bio bailout fund. Time is clearly not on the side of the collapsing market.

 

Lame Duck #4: Instead of decisively passing an inevitable automobile-industry life-buoy credit line of a "peanut-ty" US$25bn, politicians decided to take the high ground in grilling the CEOs of GM, Ford & Chrysler in public and in the process adding unnecessary nervousness to the already panicking market

 

Lame Duck #5: Lagging indicators - worsening data confirming recession - started to stream in which serves only to fuel further panic

 

All adds up to fueling further panic both on main & wall street!

 

For Berkshire Hathaway shares to drop 13% in such short period of time, and (as reported in CNBC) the major banks losing almost all the US$125bio they have gotten from TARP as their capitalisations were diminished by the falling market, it can only mean one thing: REDEMPTION continues forcing further liquidation!

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Just had a look at the AUD/JPY spot and it is around 61JPY per AUD. Damn, I wish I'd bought in August at around 100!

 

This place has any number of reasonably major currency spot prices live. Worth a look if you have the ticker! It can be a tiny bit depressing in the current climate.

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