spook 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 i'll bet 50 man you're right Link to post Share on other sites
Mantas 3 Posted January 24, 2008 Author Share Posted January 24, 2008 Punters. Link to post Share on other sites
gerard 6 Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 Gotta say, I'm glad no one took me up on that one. I'd be out 50 man! Link to post Share on other sites
indosnm 0 Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 I was thinking you'd make an easy fiddy! I'm not complaining though! Link to post Share on other sites
farquah 0 Posted January 29, 2008 Share Posted January 29, 2008 Stock market is a fantasy world! Amusing article, explains why Thursday is always chatting to 4 year old girls!! Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 did anybody move their positions way back in Jan? Link to post Share on other sites
Curt 1 Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Today, unfortunately, was not fantasy. Link to post Share on other sites
HelperElfMissy 42 Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 We sold all but one holding prior to January, and that one took a beating in Jan - but in Feb when it rallied we sold out of that too - for a tidy profit - so we are now OUT of the market, thankfully! The only major concern for us atm is the property market - already the banks are refusing to do lend us the purchasing power they were offerring us 6 months ago - things look grim for getting finance to move ahead. Esecially when the property values fall, that is going to mean peoples equity bottoms out - arrgghhh!! One foot in front of the other peoples - I found employment in the 80's - and bought a house - it will get better - but maybe not until it has got a bit worse. Link to post Share on other sites
indosnm 0 Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Gold @ $1,002!!!! keep going baby! I'm still in and have been buying. Not doing bad as my speccies are starting to fruit. Only 1 I have been slammed by and you won't be suprised to know that it's a bank/insurance co! Still fundamentals are very strong so this one is my long long term keeper. If I think I can pick the bottom I might top up, but that's months away... Link to post Share on other sites
NoFakie 45 Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 The US dollar is totally tanking. Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 you know it'll be a disaster when Bush opens his chimpanzee mouth to talk it up. Link to post Share on other sites
big-will 7 Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 Thats for sure. My 'pension' ain't looking too healthy today. Best not to look. Link to post Share on other sites
Tubby Beaver 209 Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 I have no idea about stocks etc, but I am interested to find out, anyone willing to point the way as to how I can enlighten myself with the ups and downs of the market? Books etc that may be of help? Link to post Share on other sites
tripitaka 0 Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 Originally Posted By: Indo Gold @ $1,002!!!! keep going baby! I'm still in and have been buying. Not doing bad as my speccies are starting to fruit. Only 1 I have been slammed by and you won't be suprised to know that it's a bank/insurance co! Still fundamentals are very strong so this one is my long long term keeper. If I think I can pick the bottom I might top up, but that's months away... I bought a little gold too. However, it worries me that the mainstream is now talking about it. We've seen what happens when everone jumps into property speculation. Many of those people are probably in no position to buy gold though. Expect gold to correct before moving up again. Link to post Share on other sites
HelperElfMissy 42 Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 Quote: Many of those people are probably in no position to buy gold though. I'll buy it if I can wear it while it appreciates!! Link to post Share on other sites
spook 0 Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 Originally Posted By: Tubby Beaver I have no idea about stocks etc, but I am interested to find out, anyone willing to point the way as to how I can enlighten myself with the ups and downs of the market? Books etc that may be of help? the best way is to buy something! once you've got some money invested you'll find you start paying a lot more attention to what the market is doing, and what affects it (that's not intended to be a smart-arse answer - the last 18 months has been a steep learning curve for me trying to understand the market) reading the business pages and market summaries is a good start. the various stock exchanges can also let you create an account where you can set up watchlists - pick some companies and track what they are doing. that way you haven't put in any money but can see what's going up and down and to try and understand why you can also sign up with an online broker for trading. another good investment option is to buy into managed funds. you pay a small fee (some funds waaay more than others, so research) and professional managers look after your investment Link to post Share on other sites
indosnm 0 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 as Spook has said, start out by looking at the info on your exchanges website. The Aussie one has heaps of online courses that can give you enough info to get started. Just don't overload yourself with too much info at once! Trip - Having a look at the chart tonight I'd say it will probably consolidate round the $1000 mark before taking off again. One investment mob in Oz have been predicting this for years and have set new targets. Interesting stuff, but when compared to the early 80's highs of around $2250 (in todays dollars, are still a long way off) Mama.. if you did that we'd have to call you MamaB! Link to post Share on other sites
HelperElfMissy 42 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Link to post Share on other sites
indosnm 0 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Gotta laugh at my gold comments.. 5 minutes after typing that Gold gets hammered on opening! I'll keep my mouth shut from now on! Link to post Share on other sites
NoFakie 45 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 This latest push through $1000 for gold looks like dollar weakness. Check out gold performance against various currencies here on the 30 day chart. There is a big divergence from Feb 20 onwards. http://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/charts.htm?USD The big uptrend in gold is still there though. The contrarians like to blame it all on central bank activity, but I think a lot of it is just the general commodity boom and exploding demand in traditional gold buyers like India and the Middle East. I would say the big economic mess at the moment is the governments' fault, but only because of a total lack of regulation, not too much interference as is the common complaint. The ratings agencies especially are guilty of mass fraud. How can a no-doc loan ever be AAA? Link to post Share on other sites
spook 0 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 i really don't understand how any institution could be dishing out those NINJA loans - people are defaulting on their first payment! they have no jobs, no income and they get $300k loans. total madness Link to post Share on other sites
HelperElfMissy 42 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Common sense has really gone out of the picture with loans to the everyday man at times. Is it ability to repay the debt or assets held as collateral for that debt the banks are looking for? It seems to change all the time! I too am appalled by the very low doc and no-doc loans, while some people think it is a godsend allowing lower income earners the chance at home ownership, it can also be the noose around that persons neck! And while low-doc loans were being approved for these high risk people, my parents - who have never defaulted on a payment in thier 38 years of home ownership - who have 3 homes (one with a remaining debt), were knocked back for additional finance on the grounds that they had retired. The had home #1 now a rental, the one with the mortgage still in place, home #2 the one they live in currently, and home #3 a retirement dream block with a cruddy house that needs bulldozing and the erecting of a dream retirement home. Thier plan was to demolish and build that home with finance, and then sell both the rental and the one they currently live in, and be debt free in thier brand new retirement palace. There are superannuation savings that they could fund the build with - but that brings in a host of tax issues if they use that money for that! Silly really - they are low risk cumstomers and got knocked back!! yet they accept all these others! Link to post Share on other sites
indosnm 0 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Surely if they shopped around they could get a loan mamaB? I watched a few programs where young aussie couples were getting into big loans thats were taking up 50% of their total income. Now 5 rate rises later I wander how they are doing? Some people are willing to break themselves to realise this stupid Aussie dream of owning a home. Link to post Share on other sites
HelperElfMissy 42 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Yes they probably could refuse to take no for an answer Indo. Heck - Hubby and I have not taken no for an answer over the years - we have always found a way to make it happen despite the banks reluctance...and here we are with every turn a winner so far. However my parents took 10 years of owning the dream block (and using it as a holiday getaway) to decide this move. They have banked with the one company, and when told no - accepted no - and have tracked a slower, different path. We owned a new 2 brm donga on a property we were selling - so we gave it to them, and they have installed it in the rear as a 'granny flat'. So they plan to gradually (in a better market) sell off the 2 city homes, move into the donga and build the dream home with cash in front of thier eyes. Suits them. But it does make you wonder about the intellegence of the financial institutions to knock back people with capital for collateral and yet sign up thousands of battlers for whackloads of credit that they can't repay in a low to moderate interest environment, let alone when it gets to 13, 14 and 15%!! Link to post Share on other sites
Rag-Doll 0 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 > The ratings agencies especially are guilty of mass fraud. How can a no-doc loan ever be AAA? Wigges - the loans aren't (weren't) getting AAA ratings. The senior tranches of CDOs were getting these ratings. The rating agencies aren't the problem it is the unpredicted down turn in the US housing market that has caused the sub-prime problem. CDO 101 - take $100 worth of sub-prime home loans (the Assets) secured against real estate. Sell them to a bankruptcy remote special purpose vehicle (SPV) in a low tax jurisdiction (nothing dodgy there, just makes the process tax efficient). Have the SPV issue $100 worth of bonds secured against the Assets. The SPV bonds are issued in tranches, for arguments sake lets say there are three tranches, Equity, Mezz and Senior. The Equity bonds will receive an interest coupon of 15%, the Mezz bonds receive an interest coupon of 10% and the Senior bonds an interest coupon of 5%. The rating agencies and the math guys have models that will tell them what the default rate of a $100 worth of sub-primes loans will be over a given period. Thus they can say that for a bundle of sub-prime loans worth $100 in the first year there X% chance of there being a $10 loss in the value of the Assets and in the second year there is Y% chance of a $10 loss, etc. The old risk v reward principle means that on maturity of the SPV's bonds, if there is any short fall in the value of the Assets due to a failure of the underlying loans that shortfall is borne by the holders of the Equity bonds. The Equity bond holders continue to wear the losses until the value of the Equity bonds is completely consumed and then the Mezz bond holders start wearing the losses. The Senior bond holders, those receiving the smallest coupon don't start experiencing any loss until the value of the Mezz bonds are completely consumed. In a normal world, particularly where housing values increase, the likelihood of the Senior bond holders suffering any loss is so very remote that the rating agencies are able to give the Senior bonds a AAA rating. The problem we have now is that the housing market is experiencing conditions beyond the modelling parameters and as a result the models that the maths guys use to price the CDO bonds don't work. So whilst the default rate on sub-primes is higher than normal it isn't so high as to put the AAA bonds in any real risk but what risk there is, is difficult to quantify. One of the Bear Stearns funds that went broke last year was buying the AAA tranches but it was doing so on a 10 times leveraged basis. This means it was taking $10 it had and borrowing $90 to buy $100 worth of AAA CDO bonds. This works great if the CDO assets increase in value - a 10% increase on $100 effectively doubles your money after paying off the $90 loan, $110 - $90 = $20 as against the original $10 contribution. The problems start though when the assets you've bought with your $100 drops by 10%, meaning that after you've paid off your $90 loan, you're broke. As the CDO models started to break down the values of the CDOs started to rapidly decline - people couldn't price them anymore and so didn't want to buy them anymore. This lead to many of the losses and write downs we're seeing. It isn't that the assets aren't paying or the underlying loans aren't performing - most of them are. It is just that the holders can't price them, either against the models or against the market because no one wants to buy these investments anymore. Many holders of investments such as CDOs will price them according to what the market dealers will pay for them. If no one wants to buy them, the market price is essentially zero. You're all correct about the banks' lending though. Some of the loans being written were simply insane and it was only a matter of time that the market would blow up. Link to post Share on other sites
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