mikazooki 0 Posted December 2, 2003 Share Posted December 2, 2003 in the most scientific way possible (and showing the utmost respect for nonsensical optimism), i have come up with a prediction of hirafu snow depths that i think will please most. although it looks very snowy, i would like to point out that most snow will fall during the night time, leaving the days clear for snorkelling. and seeing as future snow may not warrant further discussion, allow me to tantalize u with this - i'm gonna buy new boots (2002/3 salomon dialogues) and gloves this week. that will surely freak the snow into falling with no delay. i note the boot makers have gone a bit soft this year, more freestyle focused. anyone ride with softer (forward flex) boots? like it? i tried the salomon f24 and they were awse - too spensive for me - but essentially felt like a pair of sneakers, and still plenty stiff... the future is looking comfy. Link to post Share on other sites
alferg 0 Posted December 2, 2003 Share Posted December 2, 2003 & erm... just how did you arrive at this prediction? Link to post Share on other sites
Ocean11 0 Posted December 2, 2003 Share Posted December 2, 2003 It's nice that you don't include any disclaimers with your optimistic projections so that we can sue you for all you possess, including your new gear, if you happen to be wrong. Link to post Share on other sites
damian 0 Posted December 2, 2003 Share Posted December 2, 2003 Quote: Originally posted by low pressure lover: & erm... just how did you arrive at this prediction? Alphone, he used the ARIMA - GARCH methods of time series analysis. Well done, Mr Zooki. The Jelly fish are with you and your prediction. Link to post Share on other sites
alferg 0 Posted December 2, 2003 Share Posted December 2, 2003 ARIMA - GARCH? is this an anagram? must be in japanese i cant get it.. Link to post Share on other sites
Fattwins 0 Posted December 2, 2003 Share Posted December 2, 2003 just dont get it. Was that snowpack data. Cms or inches cause if that was cms thats not a lot of snow. If that is snowpack data then fine its pretty good. When I wake up in the morning and I can see my breath then Ill know its time to start thinking about getting out there. Link to post Share on other sites
damian 0 Posted December 2, 2003 Share Posted December 2, 2003 Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series models form a general class of linear models that are widely used in modelling and forecasting. GARCH stands for Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity. Loosely speaking, you can think of heteroscedasticity as time-varying variance (i.e., volatility). Conditional implies a dependence on the observations of the immediate past, and autoregressive describes a feedback mechanism that incorporates past observations into the present. GARCH then is a mechanism that includes past variances in the explanation of future variances. More specifically, GARCH is a time-series technique that allows users to model the serial dependence of volatility Link to post Share on other sites
alferg 0 Posted December 2, 2003 Share Posted December 2, 2003 my head hurts! Link to post Share on other sites
big-will 7 Posted December 2, 2003 Share Posted December 2, 2003 My lawyer is on hand, in case you are deceiving us. Link to post Share on other sites
mikazooki 0 Posted December 2, 2003 Author Share Posted December 2, 2003 thanks for explaining that db. y'know, i just punch the numbers in, and watch the thing run. Link to post Share on other sites
Ocean11 0 Posted December 2, 2003 Share Posted December 2, 2003 Looking at zook's mugshot on his Member's page, I could tell there was a bit of heteroscedasticity in there. Link to post Share on other sites
gammaman 0 Posted December 2, 2003 Share Posted December 2, 2003 So... is it gonna snow then? Will it be soft snow? Good pow? Or wet and slushy? Surely you can tell us that? You seem to know everything. Link to post Share on other sites
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