keba

Statistical odds do not accumulate. If you have a 1% chance of a bad outcome, then every single time you undertake the risk it is 1%. If you have 1000 people undertaking the same risk though, then about 10 people (give or take) will suffer that bad outcome. Who will be in that 10, and who will be in the 990? That is where the luck comes into it. Individual choice, skill level and experience do alter the risk, but there are factors that you won't be able to control. They are not strictly random though. Mathematicians would prefer the term "chaotic". But I don't think skiing out of bound

Great article, DB, with some sobering anecdotes... I would not have thought twice about taking on the gully in figure 6 on a good weather day. We take a risk every time we clip in. You go out of bounds, the risk increases. Experience and attention to conditions can mitigate the risk, but luck factors into it too. Doug Coombs was one of the best, and he didn't see it coming. If we could guarantee our safety, would we be having as much fun?

By modest, you mean he makes it sound easier than it really is?

That sounds great. I've driven around Manhattan and LA, and if Tokyo tops that, it will be a hoot! Thanks Farquah, I'd appreciate that. I started making a booking with Europcar, and they offered me a Mazda van with snow tyres, chains and a baby seat (not sure if AWD though). Budget wont do internet booking from Narita, and Avis doesn't even list Narita at all. I'd much rather drive than sit on a train or bus. The view from the Shinkansen isn't that special (most of it is in tunnels anyway), and if anything catches our eye from the road, we can divert to check it out. Or grab a snack.

With a baby, airport pick-up would be simpler. I look forward to the challenge of navigating around tokyo

Is there car rental close to Nagano station?

Bag, I disagree. Nirvava changed the direction rock music took in the early nineties, I don't think you should underestimate the influence they (and Kurt) still have on what were hearing on the waves even now. "The light that burns twice as bright, burns half as long" Blade Runner

Thanks for clearing that up DB... I might try staying in-bounds, all that talk about avalanches and helicopter rescue has dampened my enthusiasm.

fjef, I think I'll leave the navigation to the passenger, if we do it that way. If in-car Eigo sat nav canbe arranged, it does sound easier... Halfmachine, they may regret not getting a car. The shuttle service seems OK, though, so they might not. We'll see, I suppose...

I won't say I'm a hard-core backcountry skier, 'cause I'm not (ducking under ropes is my limit). But as good as those maps look, they don't have gridlines for reference, so won't that make getting your bearings difficult, using GPS? Or do you guys use the old-fashioned way, picking out landmarks and triangulating?

My group dismissed the idea of driving out of hand. They may get to Hakuba before us, but we'll be in a better mood, I think... I have a Garmin Etrex Vista C GPS unit, plugged into Sony Vaio with detailed maps of Japan, so navigation isn't really the problem. I was more concerned about causing an accident by not being able to recognise a "Give Way" sign

I don't remember much about the road signs in Japan. Are they mostly the universal symbols, eg Stop, Give way, One Way, etc. in symbols, and are they in Kanji, Romanji, or a combination of both? I dont read Japanese script too well, but would have half a chance if the signs have Romanji characters... In other words, how much adaptation will be required to not end up in too much trouble?

Thanks again for the offer fjef, but I thought having our own van might allow a few extra degrees of freedom, once we get to the resort. The folks we are skiing with are still keen on the train, so there will only be 2, maybe 3 adults and a baby. If we change our minds about renting, I'll definitely be in touch.

I found that in Nozawa, on the road out to Iiyama... there was 8 feet of snow on the shoulders, but the roads were perfect! Will definitely aim for AWD, though (just in case)

That's what I thought. How likely are there to be road closures for snow/slides, etc in late Jan-mid Feb? That is probably the only real doubt I have about the trip. Navigation shouldn't be a problem.

Can anyone think of a good reason why I shouldn't drive with my wife and baby direct from Narita to Hakuba in a hire car? Except for the expense, of course... Or does anyone have any tips? I will arrange baby seat, snow tyres and chains, of course. Plan B is the trains/buses. A van seems much more convenient, at first glance.

I just found a CD which has detailed road and topo maps for japan, and can be downloaded onto the Garmin devices. I've put in an order, but haven't seen the software up and running. If the sample screens are accurate though, looks pretty cool for B/C navigation. UUD

Thanks FT, I'll even make her sleep in them (then we might have a topic for a new thread)

That was our plan, but if HER boots are a problem, MY holiday will be a misery...

I don't mind spending the money, as long as the services and facilities match the price... Does sound the goods, though, from what Phool has been told.

And she is VERY unhappy about it too, Sunrise. And very ambivalent about buying new boots before trip to non-english speaking resort. We toyed with the idea of Canada (I loved Fernie!) to overcome this, but Japan is much easier to get to. The boot-fitter we have in Melbourne is very good (they were the only one who ever got her boots right, but once we're on the plane, it's going to be tricky to return for a tweak.

Phool talks hard, but has a soft underbelly...

Fed Vegemite on toast to our hostess in Nozawa, and she nearly threw up! She thought is was going to taste like chocolate, but the culture shock was nearly too much for her tastebuds. Rather like one's first taste of Natto... but now I'm hooked

That sounds like as good a solution as any...

TJ Oz's new place, if all goes according to plan...