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  • SnowJapan Admin

Not that I'm watching the telly, but just now on telly they told us about the forecast for the next 3 months. Here's what they said:


October & November:

Warmer than "normal", winter fronts coming November



Warmer than "normal", less snow than usual.


Here ends this in depth report covering all of the next 3 months. So, probably record amounts of snow then!! \:\)

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"They" use something called a General Circulation Model.


From here:



"A numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical and biological properties of its components, their interactions and feedback processes, and accounting for all or some of its known properties. The climate system can be represented by models of varying complexity, i.e. for any one component or combination of components a hierarchy of models can be identified, differing in such aspects as the number of spatial dimensions, the extent to which physical, chemical or biological processes are explicitly represented, or the level at which empirical parametrizations are involved. Coupled atmosphere/ocean/sea-ice General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) provide a comprehensive representation of the climate system. There is an evolution towards more complex models with active chemistry and biology.

Climate models are applied, as a research tool, to study and simulate the climate, but also for operational purposes, including monthly, seasonal and interannual climate predictions."


GCMs are the models used for normal forecasting, and in complex areas such as Japan, are notoriously unreliable for the next day, let alone the next three months. They are also used to support the theory that global warming is going to cause the sky to fall in and we we are all going to die a horrible death.

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