tripitaka 0 Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 I know I've touched on this before, but I wonder impact what the falling Aussie dollar will have on visitor numbers to Japan. By the way things are going, it will be 20& more expensive for Aussies to come here at the end of the year. You also wonder what will happen to all those new condos being built for the Aussie market. I wonder kind of effect that will have. The condos aren't that cheap and a weak dollar won't make them that much cheaper. Property crash? Link to post Share on other sites
neversummer 0 Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 On the holiday maker, it will probably effect rental bookings a bit but I would think people coming here have enough money to keep coming. I am sure this has been mentioned a few times but this winter could be the litmus test. On the property development, I think it is not the aussies who are dictating the market anymore, it is probably fair to say that it hasn't been the case for a while. It is the Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia nationals and expats who are raising the bar. Prices have steadied here recently but it is usually the case over the summer months anyway. Come winter, interest is still going to be there but now there are a few other areas jumping on the foreign investment bandwagon which may have some effect on niseko but will be good for the overall ski industry in Japan. Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Pow 52 Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 Because of the lack of accommodation in the Niseko Resort Area, the majority of visitors coming this winter have pre-booked and already paid the majority of their holiday costs. For next winter I would expect the prices to stabilise and certainly not see the close to 30% hike we saw for this winter. The one thing about the Japanese ski experience is it is still better and cheaper than the domestic Australian product (Australians being the biggest market share for winter visitation). That will maintain the market IMHO. The introduction of finance packages for non-Japanese residents looking to purchase in Japan makes it easier to purchase in the Niseko Resort Area. Up until now it has been a 'cash' market. This could ensure continued growth. Link to post Share on other sites
Oyuki kigan 0 Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 I am concerned that peak oil will affect tourism to Japan more adversely than a falling dollar. Link to post Share on other sites
tripitaka 0 Posted September 5, 2008 Author Share Posted September 5, 2008 Originally Posted By: MikePow Because of the lack of accommodation in the Niseko Resort Area, the majority of visitors coming this winter have pre-booked and already paid the majority of their holiday costs. For next winter I would expect the prices to stabilise and certainly not see the close to 30% hike we saw for this winter. The one thing about the Japanese ski experience is it is still better and cheaper than the domestic Australian product (Australians being the biggest market share for winter visitation). That will maintain the market IMHO. The introduction of finance packages for non-Japanese residents looking to purchase in Japan makes it easier to purchase in the Niseko Resort Area. Up until now it has been a 'cash' market. This could ensure continued growth. I guess it all depends on how bad it gets. The financial markets are in turmoil and a lot of wealth is disintegrating. In fact, this hurts the wealthy people more than the working class and middle-income strugglers. And if the property markets stumble in Australia, which hasn't really happened yet, one would think a holiday home in a foreign country that you use relatively sparingly would be the first to go. But that's just my thinking. Have accommodation prices been hiked 30% for this winter? That counts me out for Niseko. Is it going to be as painful in Nagano do you think? Link to post Share on other sites
tripitaka 0 Posted September 5, 2008 Author Share Posted September 5, 2008 Originally Posted By: Oyuki kigan I am concerned that peak oil will affect tourism to Japan more adversely than a falling dollar. OK, I agree with you to some extent. A combination of the two makes things harder, particularly for mum, dad, the kids, and the labrador. For the independent ski-traveller, it's just another hurdle to overcome. I guess it means that the people with the cheaper digs in Hakuba are going to be very busy this winter. I'm happy to hear that for their sake (some nice pension owners in Hkba). Us Japan-based punters will have to be careful if we're going in peak times. Link to post Share on other sites
Oyuki kigan 0 Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 i am gonna get a minivan and make it into a camper! Link to post Share on other sites
neversummer 0 Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 Some companies hiked their 'high end' properties up by 30% which is very steep but their research showed that people were still willing to pay for them. I still believe that it is not expensive when compared to say Australia or Europe. I haven't been back to N.America for a while so can't really compare prices there but in premium properties for between 12000-14000 per person per night isn't that bad, especially when compared to the hotels in this area. Link to post Share on other sites
tripitaka 0 Posted September 5, 2008 Author Share Posted September 5, 2008 Originally Posted By: neversummer Some companies hiked their 'high end' properties up by 30% which is very steep but their research showed that people were still willing to pay for them. I still believe that it is not expensive when compared to say Australia or Europe. I haven't been back to N.America for a while so can't really compare prices there but in premium properties for between 12000-14000 per person per night isn't that bad, especially when compared to the hotels in this area. The way the Aussie dollar is heading, that would be starting at $150 per night and heading over $200. The economic climate is changing in Australia very quickly so the upper end of the market should be careful it doesn't cut its own throat. I guess time will tell. Link to post Share on other sites
tripitaka 0 Posted September 5, 2008 Author Share Posted September 5, 2008 Originally Posted By: Oyuki kigan i am gonna get a minivan and make it into a camper! Good work. My buddy has a desel-powered Toyota Delica all kitted out with a sleeper and space for his surfboards. I think it's a good investment but it is nice to hang out indoors in the evening. Link to post Share on other sites
Oyuki kigan 0 Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 Originally Posted By: tripitaka Originally Posted By: Oyuki kigan i am gonna get a minivan and make it into a camper! Good work. My buddy has a desel-powered Toyota Delica all kitted out with a sleeper and space for his surfboards. I think it's a good investment but it is nice to hang out indoors in the evening. in japanese, they call that "Echoland". And i wonder if you can get biodeisel conversion kits here... i should seriously look into kitting up a little 4x4 Toyota Link to post Share on other sites
tripitaka 0 Posted September 5, 2008 Author Share Posted September 5, 2008 You can get diesel Delica's with 4WD pretty cheap. My mate's cost about 500 man but it was already kitted out beforehand. It's registered in Nagano which is diesel friendly. Is there anything interesting in Echoland besides bars? Link to post Share on other sites
HelperElfMissy 42 Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 The Aussie Dollar is lower now than it was a few months back for sure, but I recall that at some stages last year when I was transfering Aussie Dollars into Yen it was about the same...some times it was a better exchange, but the difference is not enough at this stage to make a big difference. EDIT: I stand corrected - my head has been buried in ballot papers all week - I hear today that the Aussie Dollar against the Yen is at a 2 yr low. However STILL not enough of a drop to put me off! Link to post Share on other sites
foreversnow 5 Posted September 5, 2008 Share Posted September 5, 2008 I have to agree again with Mike. Everyone we know who is coming to Japan next year is already booked and deposits paid. We have already fully paid for our trip as we received and early bird discount and the taxes were going up each month so now we are all paid up. We will still be looking at going to Japan in 2010 as hopefully the markets and economy will be steady and back on the rise. Your saying Niseko has gone up 30% but it is still cheaper than Aus or NZ and your guaranteed of a good time so isn't that worth paying a little extra????? I know the locals are probably finding it difficult with the prices going up BUT if the overseas tourist stop coming and places a become super cheap with places closing down and resorts closing down That is not a good thing either!!! Link to post Share on other sites
iiyamadude 6 Posted September 8, 2008 Share Posted September 8, 2008 Quote: if the overseas tourist stop coming and places a become super cheap with places closing down and resorts closing down That is not a good thing either!!! That currently sounds more like Hakuba than Niseko, well the bit about things getting cheaper anyway. Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts