spook 0 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 well, that sounds glum how long has dan sullivan been spruiking a 100% cash portfolio? everyone's an expert in hindsight the writing has been on the wall for a while, but everyone's been more greedy than scared. myself included Link to post Share on other sites
Mantas 3 Posted January 22, 2008 Author Share Posted January 22, 2008 Nice wrap up thurs.I'm going for a surf. Link to post Share on other sites
boardbaka 3 Posted January 22, 2008 Share Posted January 22, 2008 some very gd points above post -again no Milton Friedman but as I read into it some economists were basically hoping the global meltdown for lack of a better phrase would be limited to the states and Asian (particularly China) growth would kind of offset the flow on effects to the rest of the world- but it doesn't seem that this theory has been proven as earlier today Bank of China announced they also have a massive exposure as a result of the sub - prime loans also J Economy Minister Ota has apparantly abandoned his earlier optimistic stance acknowledging rising downsides risks to domestic growth(i.e the cash rate or secured overnight call rate was left on hold at 0.5 percent. Btw as I write this have just been told the server for Commwealth Bank of Austrlian brokerage is blown up becuase it can't handle the number of sell orders - buckle up for the next few days I guess ! Link to post Share on other sites
HelperElfMissy 42 Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 Just a small point to ponder...a HUGE amount of the selling today (Aussie at least), and indeed over the last week has been forced Margin Calls. I would not want to be in that position! We sold out of most of our shares a short while ago, however we have one holding that has taken a big hit in the past few days. There are no buyers, and at this lower price we will be happy to sit and sit, until there is upward movement again. However long that takes. But that is on shares in which we are not leveraged...the poor punters who are leveraged are going to take a hammering!! My interest now is in seeing how the new labor government management and policy will effect the economic bouyancy of the Australian Market. What effect is the rolling back of work choices going to have on business, employment levels, wage earnings...? Time for caution fella's. Link to post Share on other sites
indosnm 0 Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 Originally Posted By: Mamabear Just a small point to ponder...a HUGE amount of the selling today (Aussie at least), and indeed over the last week has been forced Margin Calls. Yep.. as I said above. Looking at the 10 year chart tonight I'm not as worried as I was before. Tomorrow will still be a baddy.. I'm going to the gym for the day! Link to post Share on other sites
big-will 7 Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 i was going to send money back to the UK this week (my yen > UK pounds). Any wise-heads tell me if now is a good time or a bad time? Compared to 2 months ago, the rates sending money home is GOOD for me.... Link to post Share on other sites
NoFakie 45 Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 If tradesmen are currently earning well in Oz, it might be wise for them to make hay while the sun shines. I just read the paper, but I agree with Thursday - the overall signs are looking pretty bad. With this being an election year though, I wouldn't put it past the US government doing everything it can to postpone the worst, on paper at least, until basically next year. They'll just keep printing money. Link to post Share on other sites
HelperElfMissy 42 Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 Quote: I wouldn't put it past the US government doing everything it can to postpone the worst, on paper at least, until basically next year. They'll just keep printing money. Wasn't it the US that launched the Great Depression? Link to post Share on other sites
NoFakie 45 Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 Big-Will This is not advice, but the pound has fallen against all the big currencies, not just the yen. Basically the yen is up on the US dollar, and the US dollar is up on the pound. Send a little money perhaps, but it looks like there could be more to come. I've just spent a couple of thousand squids on something for my house, so I hope we don't see a major fall in the pound in the next few days! Main topic Arguably the US is already technically in a recession. All that has happened is that the US Government has cooked the books so the GDP figures measured in dollars or dollars discounted by some crazy-nothing-to-do-with-real-life inflation number don't look so bad. Link to post Share on other sites
indosnm 0 Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 It's all good t the mo. Temporarily but put my money into 1 basket this am and up around 25% and running.. Jump out later... Link to post Share on other sites
gerard 6 Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 I think we might get a bit of a bounce on the asian markets today... or at least a rest from the carnage. Link to post Share on other sites
tripitaka 0 Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 Originally Posted By: Indo It's all good t the mo. Temporarily but put my money into 1 basket this am and up around 25% and running.. Jump out later... What are you investing in?? I had a solar power stock bounce back that much this morning, but this is a strictly buy and hold. Link to post Share on other sites
spook 0 Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 good onya indo. brave souls who jumped in yesterday are riding 30% bounce on some stuff today. i don't have any cash or an apetite for risk at the moment. am holding for the the moment. everyone who didn't panic esterday is patting themselves on the back, but i think it will get uglier again in the near future not sure if the Fed rate cut in the US is just delaying a recession. it seems like they're just cooking the books and denying the inevitable Link to post Share on other sites
bobby12 0 Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 It really does seem that way, as MrWiggles said its election year... Link to post Share on other sites
indosnm 0 Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 Trip.. COK Don't you love that code! especially when it's getting harder! My order didn't get completely filled.. bloody hell. Still a profit is a profit and in 10mins ya can't complain! Westpac broking was as slow as hell this morning so it could have been much better.. If only I had the balls yesterday.. Saw the value but couldn't press the button.. Link to post Share on other sites
tripitaka 0 Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 Originally Posted By: Indo Trip.. COK Don't you love that code! especially when it's getting harder! That's funny. My winner today was DYE. Link to post Share on other sites
Tubby Beaver 209 Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 I have no idea what any of this means..... I'm away for an afternoon beer!! Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted January 23, 2008 Share Posted January 23, 2008 OK, Words from Georgeos Soroseus: The worst market crisis in 60 years __________________________________________________________ "The current financial crisis was precipitated by a bubble in the US housing market. In some ways it resembles other crises that have occurred since the end of the second world war at intervals ranging from four to 10 years. However, there is a profound difference: the current crisis marks the end of an era of credit expansion based on the dollar as the international reserve currency. The periodic crises were part of a larger boom-bust process. The current crisis is the culmination of a super-boom that has lasted for more than 60 years. Boom-bust processes usually revolve around credit and always involve a bias or misconception. This is usually a failure to recognise a reflexive, circular connection between the willingness to lend and the value of the collateral. Ease of credit generates demand that pushes up the value of property, which in turn increases the amount of credit available. A bubble starts when people buy houses in the expectation that they can refinance their mortgages at a profit. The recent US housing boom is a case in point. The 60-year super-boom is a more complicated case. Every time the credit expansion ran into trouble the financial authorities intervened, injecting liquidity and finding other ways to stimulate the economy. That created a system of asymmetric incentives also known as moral hazard, which encouraged ever greater credit expansion. The system was so successful that people came to believe in what former US president Ronald Reagan called the magic of the marketplace and I call market fundamentalism. Fundamentalists believe that markets tend towards equilibrium and the common interest is best served by allowing participants to pursue their self-interest. It is an obvious misconception, because it was the intervention of the authorities that prevented financial markets from breaking down, not the markets themselves. Nevertheless, market fundamentalism emerged as the dominant ideology in the 1980s, when financial markets started to become globalised and the US started to run a current account deficit. Globalisation allowed the US to suck up the savings of the rest of the world and consume more than it produced. The US current account deficit reached 6.2 per cent of gross national product in 2006. The financial markets encouraged consumers to borrow by introducing ever more sophisticated instruments and more generous terms. The authorities aided and abetted the process by intervening whenever the global financial system was at risk. Since 1980, regulations have been progressively relaxed until they have practically disappeared. The super-boom got out of hand when the new products became so complicated that the authorities could no longer calculate the risks and started relying on the risk management methods of the banks themselves. Similarly, the rating agencies relied on the information provided by the originators of synthetic products. It was a shocking abdication of responsibility. Everything that could go wrong did. What started with subprime mortgages spread to all collateralised debt obligations, endangered municipal and mortgage insurance and reinsurance companies and threatened to unravel the multi-trillion-dollar credit default swap market. Investment banks’ commitments to leveraged buyouts became liabilities. Market-neutral hedge funds turned out not to be market-neutral and had to be unwound. The asset-backed commercial paper market came to a standstill and the special investment vehicles set up by banks to get mortgages off their balance sheets could no longer get outside financing. The final blow came when interbank lending, which is at the heart of the financial system, was disrupted because banks had to husband their resources and could not trust their counterparties. The central banks had to inject an unprecedented amount of money and extend credit on an unprecedented range of securities to a broader range of institutions than ever before. That made the crisis more severe than any since the second world war. Credit expansion must now be followed by a period of contraction, because some of the new credit instruments and practices are unsound and unsustainable. The ability of the financial authorities to stimulate the economy is constrained by the unwillingness of the rest of the world to accumulate additional dollar reserves. Until recently, investors were hoping that the US Federal Reserve would do whatever it takes to avoid a recession, because that is what it did on previous occasions. Now they will have to realise that the Fed may no longer be in a position to do so. With oil, food and other commodities firm, and the renminbi appreciating somewhat faster, the Fed also has to worry about inflation. If federal funds were lowered beyond a certain point, the dollar would come under renewed pressure and long-term bonds would actually go up in yield. Where that point is, is impossible to determine. When it is reached, the ability of the Fed to stimulate the economy comes to an end. Although a recession in the developed world is now more or less inevitable, China, India and some of the oil-producing countries are in a very strong countertrend. So, the current financial crisis is less likely to cause a global recession than a radical realignment of the global economy, with a relative decline of the US and the rise of China and other countries in the developing world. The danger is that the resulting political tensions, including US protectionism, may disrupt the global economy and plunge the world into recession or worse." Full article on FT Link to post Share on other sites
Mantas 3 Posted January 24, 2008 Author Share Posted January 24, 2008 Originally Posted By: Indo If only I had the balls yesterday.. Saw the value but couldn't press the button.. You can go nuts thinking like that. I,ve steered clear of all share for a while now, I had a feeling something like this was on the cards. I even shuffled some of my super out of shares 6 months ago. No losses for me, but only little gains from last year as well. Link to post Share on other sites
indosnm 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 Yeah you can go nuts thinking that.. Why is it always when you sell out of a share that it take off?! This is my (adn alot of young uns) first real correction/crash, last Feb and August were nothing and we can only learn more for next time.. Like having stops in place.. I'm still bullish on Oz's mining sector, India and China are still there and their demand for our resources is still there too. Link to post Share on other sites
spook 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 basically i just like gambling, and the sharemarket is much more socially acceptable than the horses what's life without risk? punt away i say! Link to post Share on other sites
indosnm 0 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 Yeah.. Alot more convenient than the Casino for me too! Wasn't expecting todays bounce in the USofA. Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 Fresh European skeleton Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Societe Generale SA said it will seek 5.5 billion euros ($8.1 billion) in new capital after discovering a case of trading fraud and taking further writedowns linked to the U.S. subprime mortgage market crash. The bank discovered last weekend that a trader in Paris had secretly set up positions that will cost the company 4.9 billion euros before tax, Societe Generale said in an e-mailed statement today. The trader, who wasn't identified, went beyond permitted limits on futures linked to European stock indexes. Societe Generale will also take 2.05 billion euros in writedowns related to credit market turbulence. The bank said it will still make a profit of between 600 million euros and 800 million euros for 2007. An offer by Chairman Daniel Bouton to resign was rejected by the board, the bank said. Societe Generale yesterday fell 4.1 percent to 79.08 euros, its lowest since May 2005, valuing the bank at 36 billion euros. The shares have fallen 20 percent since the start of the year, hurt by expectations of further writedowns. The company said it plans to raise the capital by selling shares in a rights offer underwritten by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley. Link to post Share on other sites
gerard 6 Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 Originally Posted By: Indo Wasn't expecting todays bounce in the USofA. Nope. Seems like it plunged at the opening though, and swung wildly in between. Thursday's fatalism aside, with a little luck, we're half way to the bottom. Hey - I'll bet 50 man the U.S. markets are down tomorrow morning. Any takers? Link to post Share on other sites
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