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NutteyCubey

SnowJapan Member
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Posts posted by NutteyCubey

  1. It's not looking that good for the PS3 is it?

     

    Interesting read:

     

    Last week's NPD sales data confirmed Nintendo's dominance at the register in both the handheld and console spaces. The Wii's lower price point pits the most heated (and arguably "next-gen") console war between Microsoft and Sony. When NPD reported that Sony sold just 127k PlayStation 3s in the U.S. in February, it's easy to suggest that the company is in dire straits, but looking at the path tread last year by the Xbox 360, Sony is actually on familiar ground.

    During its first four months at retail, Microsoft's Xbox 360 was supply constrained but still managed a sell-through in the U.S. of 1.02M consoles through February 2006, according to NPD figures. With suffocating supply constraints during the November launch period, Sony's PlayStation 3 still outsold the Xbox 360 during the same four-month launch window with 1.06M consoles sold through February 2007.

     

    Briefly ignoring just how supply constrained the 360 was during that four month period, the fact that the PlayStation 3 has outsold the Xbox 360 over the same period in its life span despite costing $200 more per unit isn't a something that should get lost amidst the cries of doom and gloom for Sony's platform. How much more would the Xbox 360 have sold had supply not been so constrained in the first four months after launch?

     

    After selling 160k units in February of 2006, the Xbox 360 went on to sell 192k units the following month before bouncing back in April's NPDs with its biggest month since the November launch with 295K units sold. That 295K units would also be the second biggest month for PlayStation 3 sales, but Sony's biggest month wasn't the November launch, rather it was December where the system sold 491K units.

     

    What does this mean for Sony? Considering the system's higher price point, if the platform can keep pace with the Xbox 360 through the first year (while the software matures), regardless of the installed base, the system has to be considered semi-successful.

     

    A concerning statistic between the two platforms' first January and February months is the drop-off in sales for those two months. From January 2006 to February 2006 the Xbox 360 sales trailed off 36% (250K units down to 161k units). At the same point in its lifespan, Sony's PlayStation 3 experienced a drop-off of 48% (244K units down to 127K units). That drop in sales, considering the units are available at retail, is cause for concern. Yet, despite trailing off by 25% more than its supply-constrained predecessor, the system does still cost $200 more.

     

    Neither console had major exclusives during their first February (Virtua Fighter 5 on the PlayStation 3 sold 53K units) -- PlayStation 3 has Motorstorm and Oblivion in March, where Xbox 360 had Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter and Oblivion at the same point in time last year. Ubisoft's GRAW, which just shipped a sequel this month, sold 486K copies in March of 2006; Oblivion sold a combined 356K copies in March 2006 (there was a limited edition of the game, too). Yet, while software surged for the Xbox 360 in March of 2006, the system only sold 191K units -- its third worst month to date.

     

    What does that mean? Even if Motorstorm and Oblivion-PS3 sell with Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter and Oblivion-360 type performance at U.S. retail (the latter seems less likely considering pretty much the same game is coming to market a full year later), based on the Xbox 360's March 2006 sales, the PlayStation 3 may not see the sales surge some folks (myself included, albeit erroneously) said the system needed.

     

    In addition to selling more over the first four months of its lifespan than the Xbox 360's first four months, the biggest first party software on PlayStation 3 outsold the biggest first party 360 title during those same four months. According to NPD, Insomniac's Resistance: Fall of Man sold 500K units through February -- the biggest selling first party Xbox 360 launch game over same period -- Perfect Dark Zero -- sold 396K units across two SKUs. The system is selling better over the first four months of its lifespan than the 360 and its major launch game outsold the 360's best selling launch game during the same window.

  2. Not sure but there seem to be new questions every day or so, and you just vote for 1 of 2 answers. You then can vote to predict what you think the general public response will be. Then a few days later when all those people have voted, they show the results. Your little Miis take part on all this fun and make it all quite lighthearted and (kinda) fun. You can also submit your own questions. I submitted the following

     

    Which is more fun?

     

    - Wii

    - PS3

  3. 1. Wii has an almost 900k lead on PS3 in 11 weeks.

     

    2. The PS3 has never been closer week-to-week with the Wii than 20k units, and 45k units this year.

     

    3. The PS3 hasn't sold more than 76k units in one week since launch.

     

    4. The Wii hasn't sold less than 65k units in one week since launch.

     

    5. The PS3 has never come closer than 28% market share.

     

    6. The Wii hasn't lost market share since it went on sale.

     

    7. The PS3 just had its second best week of the post-holiday year. 23,431 (1st - 25,531 - 1/8-1/14)

     

    8. The Wii just had its second worst week of the post-holiday year. 78,550 (1st - 93,708 - 1/8-1/14)

     

    9. In the same time that the PS3 sold 100k, the Wii sold 400k. The 360 sold 35k.

  4. If Wii stops selling and PS3 continues at this rate, it catches up November 2, 2007.

     

    At this week's PS2 and DS rates, DS catches up to PS2 August 26, 2007.

     

    Wii comparisons: After 11 weeks, Wii's total is now about where GameCube was late August 2002, nearly a full year after launch. It's where DS was 5-6 weeks after launch. It's where PS2 was 10 weeks after launch. PS2 continues on in the 60-90K range each week for some time more, so given Wii supply I doubt it "catches up" anytime soon; if Wii demand manages to stay high, maybe once it's been out 3 times this long.

     

    PS3 comparisons: After 14 weeks, PS3 appears to have hit what PS2 did in a little over a week. It also appears to be at another GameCube intersection, being at the total GCN was in just over 14 weeks.

     

    Through 6 weeks, Nintendo has sold more hardware units than it did in the entire first quarter of any recent year. I've pointed out previously how strong MS's start has been relative to previous years, but now at 6 weeks they've sold more hardware units than they have in the first 17 weeks of any previous year.

  5. No the numbers changed and the image in the post above changed. Still the updated numbers are still only just over the PS2.

     

    And the Wii has sold more than double the PS3, with a month less on the shelves.

     

    Talking of PS2, if you have one and can read Japanese, try Okami. Beautiful excellent game.

  6. You'll be lucky if you can get one this side of new year:

     

    After seeing their precious PlayStation 3 launch number ravaged by component shortages and manufacturing woes, we thought our Japanese neighbors could finally feel confident in the paltry 100k share they'd been promised by Sony last month, but it looks like they've been betrayed once again. Turns out that Sony will only have 80k of the elusive PS3s prepped by the November 11th for the Japanese launch, due to another component woe. With pretty much every available pre-order slot in the country already snapped up by next-gen hopefuls, and even some of those orders on the fritz, it looks like the best chance you'll have to get the console in The Land of the Rising Sun next month will be to line up outside a non-pre-order retailer and hope for the best. Dress warm!

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