What im doing is catching the overnight bus from shinjuku station(west exit) straight to happo in hakuba leaves at 10:30 arrives at 5:30
return is 8500 yen. Full bus timetable is at
http://www.alpico.co.jp/access/express/hakuba_shinjuku/index_e.html
If you arrive at japan on the 31st of jan you might see me!