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ippy

SnowJapan Member
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Posts posted by ippy

  1. i HATE and DETEST boards that are too small for me.

     

    Its not downsizing though. Its just 156-158 = sweet spot.

     

    Anything smaller and i will blame that ride for every wipe or wash that comes my way. Ill then convince myself that the board is a piece of shit, cant be trusted and utterly dangerous. Ill then flip it for something else.

     

    I aint no park rat though :) Enjoy your new wheels!

     

    What, i dont care if this thread ended up being some Burton love in! If i want to talk about downsizing, im going to talk about downsizing.

     

    Its stupid. ****ing pointless. And i still cannot understand why anyone would bother with it UNLESS they really really really want less pop, less stability and less control to their ride. Ah, a good old 2009 argument. I mean, in 2009 i understood it. Camber was your options. Downsizing meant still two contacts, a bit of stability, a comparatively softer and easier to wreck flex, and no heavy tail or tip to get on your rai... oh wait! blunts already existed. Honestly. Seriously. if i think about this even for a minute i feel like my brain will go blue screen of death and ill have to boot up in safe mode.

     

    Downsizing rocker though is the one that always gets my head in a loop. Why would you even bother? Blunts exist, rocker exists, noodles abound! Its madness! Its like riding a womans board if youre a guy because you want a softer torsional flex. Those board EXIST and you dont have to do a bazillion calculations iniside your head to try and aproximate if the damn thing will ride the way it says it will.

     

    Actually truth be told i couldnt care less. Im just practicing getting in the habit ranting about tech. As you can see, my hearts just not in it anymore. I might have to quietly skulk off and leave the tech discussions to Tubby and the like :p

     

    Has anything fun happened at all this year (or last year) with tech? As far as i can see, Blauvelt and ride still havent added pop-walls to my board, Until they do, they aint getting another penny out of me. I NEEEEEED them RIDE!!! when i set back my zerker it turns to a sluggish piece of crap. When i center it, its raving. But when i center it in kagura it sinks :( Give me pop walls and be snappy about it!

     

    There, thats the only thing ive got left to complain about. And its a three year old complaint. Sorry for the thread crap, but i need to keep in practice. Ive been getting lazy in the forums during off season!

    • Like 1
  2. We all know i suck on a snowboard, but around 2012, once again in Niseko, took a heavy slam at the big kicker at the base of hirafu (near the gondy). It was OBVIOUSLY too big for me, but had a couple of mates i was riding with at the time who had taken me a little under their winging and gently nudging me out of my comfort zone. Had a couple of successful airs. Third hit though, over corrected on the landing and ended up smashing face first into the knuckle. Ouch.

     

    Didnt hurt all that bad to be honest. Part of the reason i had a go on it was it wasnt pristine. There was freshies on the run up slowing things down and keeping the speeds manageable. If it was later in the season and a bit icier, theres no way i would have touched it, but it was soft. Still, it killed my air progression. It was nice and smooth up to that point. Its not so much i consciously chose to avoid it or anything, but i just always found a line id rather be on than park.

     

    Then at the tail of (my) last season (March 2013) on an empty and slightly slushy nozawa i decided i could have a wee play in the park again to kill the boredom. Successfully hit the first two kickers and approached the final one (just a regular medium size park hit but big enough to be a bit intimidating) and heart in my mouth, i threw caution to the wind and... er, not even a problem. Had another couple of cracks at it and the same story. All i could think was "damn man, i could have been playing on this all season and having a blast".

     

    Its all in the head. Then again im a sprightly late thirties. Im like a rubber band compared to some of you auld fellas. ;)

  3. Niseko 2011

     

    I was practicing a butter. Nothing special, just a few spins. Obviously slamming all day with the occasional success to keep me going.

     

    But it got tough.

     

    No specific injury, but those cumulative hits took their toll. I think it destroyed the rest of my trip. I know its something we all go through, but that was definitely the moment i realised the pipe dreams were over. I could take the slams. I could take a broken wrist. But this... it was the feeling that id lost something mental rather than physical that did me in. I was in chains to a new world order. It signaled the end. I was broken.

     

    Only kidding cats. Three months to the new season! lets wiping!

    • Like 1
  4. Its nice. What ive seen of it anyway. The bits i didnt see were skier only, or small hills i believe (or hills with a random policy to shut down the best parts of the mountain).

     

    For me, and im not proselytizing here, but yuzawa area comes a distant second to Iiyama if i was seriously picking a place to move around from. Actually maybe not. The transport is way better in yuzawa. Its actually a doddle picking your resort, getting on a shuttlebus and then coming home once youre done. not so, illyama. Well, info is current as of March 2013.

     

    If you had a car though, id pick iiyama for the resorts. Nozawa, Madarao, Ryuoo, Kosha, and Togari beat Kagura, Naeba, Naspa, Gala, and er, i forget everything else.

    You could even throw Myoko and Shiga koge into that iiyama pot. Its genuinely top quality for me.

     

    Theres also the Hakuba area (goryu/47, happo, Iwatake, Cortina, and that other one i forget).

     

    Theres also the snow monkey japanese ski experience in Yamanouchi (kosha and shiga kogen along with Snow monkeys, hokkusai museum in obuse, onsen, and nakano).

     

    Theres also the Zao thing But i forget what that is. Actually we need more of these base areas. Its really fun. Wheres metabo to fill us in on the fukushima options? And Zao to fill us in on the zao options and er, someone anywhere else to tell us about the rest of honshu. Im sure theres an area in the south nagano/north Gifu bit too.

  5. Independence was always my second wish (eyes passim). My first wish was constitutional federalism :) Im an old school labour lefty. I dont blame the PLP for being a useless bunch of wankers. I blame the makeup of British demographics that concentrates wealth and power in the south east because thats where most of the people in the UK end up living (because wealth and power are concentrated in the south east - forcing the labour party to devise policy for those people at the expense of their heartlands).

     

    For me, if the conditions change, then the PLP will change with them and reflect something closer to the vision their core supporters want. Not radical left, but just a re-balancing of UK policy to the old center left values of redistribution, social welfare and opportunism. The old classic "freedom to..." over the Thatcherite "freedom from..." This was always bigger than Scotland. Even the promise or vow was irrelevant. All that was required was England to buy into the idea that we were getting something they werent to start the ball rolling. Dont get me wrong, Wales and the regions of England have just as much right to complain, but Wales (and the regions), like Scotland, wont change shit without an English (South East English) desire for change.

     

    England holds the cards, and always has done. That theyve decided to tell themselves that Scotland is at their border stealing their sheep for the sake of the prejudices of the little Englander in the south east, means more to the cause of devolved power than any empty vow to the scottish people. Scotland will get shafted as ever, but this time it seems the threat of UKIP, the threat of 'the scottish rebellion', the threat of more money going north, and the spite of the English media reflecting the echo chamber of their south east voting public that theyre somehow the massive victims in all this, will create the conditions that genuinely threaten the UK and the conservative right wing hold of the UK. It makes me terribly excited for the future.

  6. A a good Foucauldian (look it up nerds), i believe that power exists in discourse. That means when no ones talking about something, it might as well not exist, (well, actually as a good Foucauldian, it means that when someones not talking about something it means that power is overwhelmingly being exerted, but thats for another lecture).

     

    Anyways, heres my assessment on Devo max:

     

    England is losing their shit (expected). England is now arguing about the West Lothian Question (expected) and the unfair distribution of wealth to Scotland through the Barnett formula (expected). They realise a promise was made though, but they want their own concessions (entirely expected) to protect the English people from getting a crap deal.

     

    Scotland will concede the west lothian question in due time. Well, labour will, (nothing to concede from the other parties) Because it will give rise to the discussion on an English parliament for English decision making (unexpected)

    The Barnett formula immediately opens up the question of WHY the Northern regions of england are so underfunded compared to the south east DESPITE the Barnett formula (and that London gets plenty from it), and this will open up regional questions (unexpected). This will open up the discussion on regional funding and the strangelhold of power at westminster that concentrates solely on the South East (unexpected).

     

    Well actually, theyre all expected. Its hilarious watching the threat of UKIP foisting on the South East (the UKIP and Westminster homeland) the discussion on power diffusion from the south east to the regions using the language of nationalism to try and foster some kind of unified English vision (whist creating the very conditions of regionalism theyre trying to undermine).

     

    As i say, the death knell was signed on the UK when the three main parties ran to scotland and decided to talk about handing more powers to scotland. The irony that they failed to gather is that scotland IS powerless against England. Its not Scottish moaning and complaining that will break up the UK, its because ENGLAND is talking about it now and taking it seriously. Scotland has no power to foist on England anything at all. Only England can change the course of the UK. Twas ever thus! And England is buying hook line and sinker into the rhetoric of rampant scottish nationalism forcing a poor deal for england. So now england wants to stop being oppressed by those evil scots and will have its own parliament and regional assemblies to counter them! :D England is actually agreeing to the dispersal of the power of westminster because of the heating conversation in ENGLAND, not because of scotland. It doesnt matter that they offered scotland empty promises, Its the threat thats opened the conversation and turned up the heat on centralised power in the south east.

     

    If you were an evil super villain, the plan couldnt have gone smoother. Theyre talking themselves into corners and bringing the diffusion of power from westminster right into the rhetoric of English nationalism, when its only in the interests of the powerless regions of england, wales, scotland and northern ireland for such a diffusion to take place. Its genius. And the architect? None other than Gordon Brown, the saviour of the UK.

     

    Okay, maybe its more comic book than reality. But i love this.Its what i was waiting for and its all playing out exactly as youd expect thus far. The tories and labour have backtracked. The tories are now banging the English powers drum, and labour are trying to find a way to wriggle out of west lothian question. But the conversation is under way, and England is now the new battleground for constitutional reform. If for some reason the UK actually agrees on extra funding for scotland, itll blow the doors wide open. Hello not just diffuse power, it'll be federalism.

  7. Plus, some of the pensioners will be dead by then along with their intransigent 73% no vote. The young uns (71% yes amazingly) will still be radical, and we get a whole new raft of 16 and 17 year old (and their 18,19, and 20 year old mates to start voting). The 57% of over 50s i think it was, who voted no, might actually be worried more about their pension in a few years time if they STAY in the union. Plus, pressure on oil will actually pay off as a vote winner and not some kind of lottery windfall. Its going to run out, and the question might rightly be asked that if its going to run out, shouldnt the scottish people benefit before it actually does and theres nothing but crumbs on the table from westminster now that we get more money from westinster than we pay in?

     

    Part of me is secretly hoping they either delay indefinitely the vow, or they just use it as an excuse to bring in reforms entirely beneficial to England and the conservatives.

    The other part of me is hoping that the whole thing gets torn apart constitutional means through regional assemblies and greater powers for the celts. Youre welcome England! :x

  8. Bumping for more random melodrama.

     

    One lousy document is about to push me down to the wire YET AGAIN.

    The Crc, after random pointless delays caused by an unacceptable chinese translation of my address (and thereafter an apparently fine translation of my address saying the exact same thing just all on one document), they not only snail mailed it back to me (took almost a month), but forgot to certify the thing with an official stamp DESPITE my original request to do so (along with the email reminders in every correspondence thereafter).

     

    So mailed it to my mate upon arrival and sent him off into the streets of brighton to find someone who knew what the **** the legal requirements of a FO apostille was. Apparently few did. All point blank refused to notarise the original. One decided to copy it and then was happy to certify the copy as an original and genuine copy.

     

    He sent it off to the Foreign office last week. Yay! On the paper in the NOTES section of a very short application form for the apostille is a specific request that they do not return the documents before emailing me first to try and resolve any issues.

    Obviously the clocks ticking, but its end game stuff here. Should be back in my hands with at least 20 or so days to spare.

    And sure enough got an email from DHL saying it was on its way!

     

    Checked my bank, and hooray! the 52 quid has been taken out of my account.

    But whats this? Thirty quid has been deposited in my account from the Foreign Office?

     

    GRRWRWAAAAAAAARRRRRGGGGHHHHHHHHH!!!!!

     

    I can only assume (because no ones bothered to email me of course), that they will only put an apostille on the original and have sent the documents back to china so i can get a notary stamp on it.

     

    So now, depending on the arrival date (its still sitting in England for some unknown reason since the 18th), that i now have to do this whole shebang again.

    So since the last waste of time took up nigh on 2 weeks thus-far, that means another 2-3 weeks for it. My contract ends on the 15th of October. So possibly might arrive if im lucky right before i leave. But more than likely itll find more ways to be delayed and thus I'll have to stick around in china for a month on a tourist visa in a hotel. Possibly might even have to take a job here before it runs out. Echy thump! I knew the warning signs were still there when my favourite recruiter told me that yes he could get me a job, but he now works direct for the BoE and only with elementary schools. :/

     

    Its going to be yet another ridiculous battle for a job.

     

    Thanks to the Cambodian Visa hops, ive got 4 blank pages in my passport. This is once again needlessly traumatic. :)

     

    ETA: Just got a nice email back from Disclosure Scotland. It turns out theyve changed their policies. Disclosure Scotland certificates are mailed out autoatically once theyre printed up. They are THEN returned by the certifyee (me) with a request for a stamp and signature.

     

    Thats why theres no stamp on it despite my requests. They cant do it until i resend it so that it actually arrives at the relevant department.

  9. Momentum has ping ponged again.

     

    At the weekend it hit fever pitch. Almost lost control in fact at the whole camp outside the empty BBC building with the DEATH TO NICK ROBINSON banners. Well... maybe not death. But ugly anyways. :)

     

    Then monday hit and its been all quiet again. I know people are back at work and doing humdrum stuff, but even my facebook feeds are looking static compared to a fortnight ago. Ive been using them as a general weather vane. Not my sister mind you, shes still at it. She hates England plenty much though. But its when people i dont expect start getting caught up in it (my cousins for example), then i start paying attention. Two more days... well, two and half technically.

     

    Anyways, hope youre right. I would LOVE IT if i woke up on Friday morning to a shellshocked Dimbleby (or whoever is hosting it), trying to get a word out of the gobsmacked talking heads. I would LOVE IT.

  10. The Tory backbenchers have already said that they would most likely vote against the Devo-max powers that's been offered due to the process being unconstitutional

     

    No less than Ed Balls has also come out (well, behind closed doors) to claim this would be a 'problem' for passing any English tax program given that West Lothian Question would now be obviously center stage again.

  11. Wonderful day for not having a ****ing clue about any trends. A better together commissioned poll puts the at an 8 point lead. Suggestions of course that this being the case. perhaps SEVERAL polls were commissioned and they cherry picked the worst one. The observer poll reflects a 6 point lead for the No vote (53-47). but the Sunday Times poll put the lead at the more modest 51-49. However, mad polling at the telegraph puts the YES vote at an 8 point lead.

     

    Its bizarro world.

     

    Also the 2 key features of todays debate:

     

    1. Accusations of BBC bias. If this sticks, it could turn some votes to the YES camp.

    2. The devo max option is being put under the microscope. Again, the articles in the grauniad, like me, are buying into it wholesale. They love it. I love it. We all love it. But its always the comments section (and forums) where youll find the proper sentiments. And if its to be believed it seems that its not washing. If yes make this case, then honestly itll be HUGE in the run up. Its not a massive vote winner, but its got a few percent in it. If people think its not coming and an empty promise, its more resentment. And resentment is going to push right into the hands of Salmond. Expect to see some concrete proposals come out of the woodwork. Expect also to see some backbenchers being disciplined by the Tory whips to shut the **** up about English resentment at the idea of further Scottish powers. :)

     

    Exciting times. Love these developments.

  12. Its alright. Ill keep this one shorter :)

     

    For me, it doesnt matter who wins because both options mean more power to scotland to decide its own political and economic programmes It also means a kick up the arse to the labour party (im west coast ayrshire labour through and through - though ive never voted for 'new labour' once). Even if Scotland votes No, im delighted that the debate on federalism is now underway.

     

    More power either way?!? I think not......federalism isnt on the way, UKIP is and they want to consolidate not delegate. The Tories and the Pink Tories will shudder even further right in an attempt to stop the populist vote of UKIP.....Scotland will be a byword of UK Policy and will be battered and weakened on appeasement to the further shift right of the English electorate.

     

    UKIP are a GIFT to the labour party. For a generation the liberal democrats and SDP cleaved the labour vote in two (well 4/5 and 1/5). It amazes me that Farage is making in roads to labour, but i see this purely as a protest vote and based heavily on a ridiculous scare campaign about EU membership - the bulgarians are coming! the bulgarians are coming! Remember new year? Remember the flood that turned into a single person at an airport?).

     

    Theyre buying it because the labour party are doing nothing at all to make the argument against this absurdity lest they lose their general poll lead in the run up to the election. The point, as Marx said, is to change the world. Not explain it. Its Sophie's choice at the moment. They either attack the rise of UKIP and its nonsense, (thus legitimising UKIP and offering it a platform as a genuine political party and not some kind of dumb pressure group), or they leave it alone, and hope the encroachment of the UKIP bandwagon is felt most harshly in Tory dominated areas, splitting their vote and thus allowing the Lib Dems to sneak in as the rational voice of protest. Labour are suffering, but the Tories will be far and away the most terrified by the competition of Farage. And this might force a right lean again from the tories pushing them out of electability.

     

    UKIP are a nonsense. An absolute nonsense. There is nothing that would convince me that they pose anything other than a huge threat to the tories. An threat they pose to labour is miniscule in comparison. (And even then, only to non-committed labour supporters looking to either give Milliband/Balls a kick (ie. protest vote) or because they liked Tony Blair and also like Farage because hes 'a bit of a character'. Theyre hardly dyed in the wool labour supporters. Theyre floaters). So long as more of these stragglers for UKIP vote against the Tories than labour, its a gift to labour.

     

    Polls bear this out. The tories lose ground as Farage's star rises. I pray to god he isnt a flash in the pan, because the center left split held this country under the sway of the Tories right until my early 20s. I was actually happy that the lib dems sided with the tories if only because the accusation that they were just labour with a yellow rosette really had began to stick in the Tory heartlands. (i just wish theyd had a bit more spine in the coalition). Finally, perhaps maybe, the Tories can now watch their own vote split and enjoy another generation of in-fighting like they did in the entire 90s. I really really couldnt be happier to watch them argue themselves into unelectability once again. I actually liked John Major. I thought he was a man of genuine courage and integrity. I ****ing loved the bastards though.

     

    So perhaps not so much a Sophie's choice after all. Its a risk given that it does allow the discourse to remain unchecked. But this is the Tories battle, and any intervention by labour would only benefit the Tories. So let them have at it and then throw caution to the wind in a total cluster**** of in fighting and self destruction with a referendum on the EU. Sadly, i wont get to see that day though because i think Labour are going to romp the next election (despite being about as ugly a looking labour party - in terms of principals - that ive ever seen). And labour are currently hitching their wagons to the federalism train rather tightly. Ed Milliband wrote an article even talking about a cornish parliament in the observer today. The message of the Scottish referendum is that Labour might be finally waking up.

  13. Its alright. Ill keep this one shorter :)

     

    For me, it doesnt matter who wins because both options mean more power to scotland to decide its own political and economic programmes It also means a kick up the arse to the labour party (im west coast ayrshire labour through and through - though ive never voted for 'new labour' once). Even if Scotland votes No, im delighted that the debate on federalism is now underway.

  14. Sorry, dont mean to be on the warpath. I like seeing things from all the angles. But i really want independence, so theres going to be invariable bind spots. The sillars thing for example is being absolutely hammered for its cynicism at the moment. I loved it. It made me laugh that he said he did it just to give the daily mail a political orgasm and have the Today programme get him on the show so he could actually make his real attack on the negative briefing of companies like BP to a proper audience (instead of being quietly ignored if he'd have just said "stop distorting the facts, BP"). Incredibly cynical politics for sure. But it appeals to me if only for the mirror it holds up to the assembled media.

     

    The Better Together campaign has been incredibly negative. Ive made a few posts about how they should have framed the argument and the choice. Moderate change and the current powers of the Scottish assembly to transform the lives of the Scottish people would really have made the point and kept a very decent buffer. And they should have offered this from the start. But they had nothing. Westminster refused to even negotiate on those powers until last Sunday when the Yougov poll caused a widescale panic. So they were stuck focusing on the negative and how bad its all going to be for Scottish people if they go alone. Fair enough, but its not ringing true, and the more its said, the less people are listening. Its killing their own salient points. Gordon Brown, (whom i LOVE to be honest. Hes a political titan and i would love to see him return to front line politics for the Scottish assembly rather than being quietly shunted upstairs to the Lords), has been making some wonderful speeches and writing some brilliantly positive articles recently. Of course, its all rhetoric, but its POSITIVE. Its a vision of why Scotland would be actually BETTER if it was part of the union. If there was more of this, then maybe the moniker 'project fear' (allegedly coined by Better together initially), wouldnt stick so hard.

     

    On the flip though, better together have accused the SNP of plying a dirty campaign of obfuscating the economic realities of the new independent and sovereign currency-less nation by claiming at every turn the better together campaign is deliberately negative in an attempt to manipulate scottish voters into ignoring the positive aspects of independence and obfuscating (im using it twice deliberately) the message that an independent scotland will not only be an economically viable state, but will be successful and raise the living standards of its people.

     

    He said-she said.

     

    The SNP argue that better together are playing a deliberately coordinated negative campaign to manipulate scottish voters into voting against their interests. And better together argue that the SNP are banging the negative campaigning drum to hide the economic problems a new independent scotland would face. Whilst the SNP argue that better together are playing silly buggers with their economic data to hide that a sovereign scotland would in fact be successful. And better together argue that the SNP are manipulating voters by shouting down their facts with empty promises, mistruths and intimidation. Its a JOY to watch. Its a bigger joy to know that its a country i have a genuine stake in. :)

  15. Because it was incredibly ironic. Now you personally are arguing that the campaign is full of ugly rhetoric on both sides. That will be true of course. Its a political campaign. But the irony comes from pretending that only the YES side are using ugly rhetoric and 'not focusing on the argument'. So why shouldnt i find this statement ironic? I didnt say that one side only has been using dirty tricks or campaigning negatively, the Shadow Business secretary did. It seems fair to laugh at him for saying it, no?

  16. I really do hope youre right, dude. I want that fait accompli on Friday morning when the manufactured fear stops and people have to come to the table and make it work. Someone on the guardian feed said it spectacularly well yesterday: its perhaps just a trade off with total economic potential for self-determination. And in that calculus, unless youre a greedy ****, its a trade off you should rightly want to take. If less well off countries (without abundant natural resources) can make independence work, its hard to believe that scotland would implode and somehow become the failed state that big business seems to argue.

     

    Also, Jim Sillars today was hilarious. Just got in from work, and started catching up on things. What he did on the Today programme will have probably garnered a few thousand extra votes.

     

    It forced out this GEM of a reply from the Labour Shadow Business secretary:

     

    The SNP's Jim Sillars' threatening comments are a complete disgrace - seek to win by the strength of your argument not through ugly rhetoric

     

    I almost spat out my tea :)

     

    Also, Orange walk. First time in the history of me ive supprted the orange order steadfast! Keep at it boys and girls! youre doing the No camp a massive disservice. :)

  17. Its been messy since Sunday's poll.

     

    We've had the leaders of all parties heading to scotland. A train full of labour MPs heading to Scotland. And an endless series of business leaders all telling the world that Scotland is going to implode if they vote Yes.

     

    But with less than a week to go, heres the Yes vote across all polls:

     

    Sun Panelbase 48%

    Sun YouGov 51%

    Tues TNS 49%

    Wed Survation 47%

    Thurs YouGov 48%

    Fri ICM 49%

     

    Average 48.7%

     

    Its right down to the wire. And to be honest, the negativity has hit saturation id imagine. The sky is falling the sky is falling! The more business leaders start shouting it, the more people wil start to actually think "hang on, theyre not in scotland out of charity.. maybe they want something that we have. And maybe, in a weeks time, they'll come back to remind us that actually they've reassessed the situation and feel its maybe in their interest to stay in Scotland and keep those jobs in a first world educated market after all instead of handing it over to their competitors to saunter in unopposed and take up the burden of all their profits and market share".

     

    It worked... it did what it needed to do, which was kill the momentum and make people think again. But it wont work a second time. These announcements are starting to feel very very coordinated. And since part of the drive of independence momentum was of course the irrelevance and alienation of policy foisted on scotland from Westminster (via lobbyists in the City of London), youll see a backlash and a resurgence of that momentum as we get closer to the poll. Had they have been less heavy handed perhaps, and had it have been left to politicians alone, i think they would have turned it. But the business interventions in addition to the political sideshow all seem like a coordinated scare campaign, and its that campaign, (project fear), that has scottish people ignoring the message in its entirety.

     

    I still think the Nos will take it because i feel that for cataclysmic change on this kind of scale you need that momentum where people WANT to be on the side of history (a la Obama) or you need a strong buffer to counter the 5% or so of people who ALWAYS end up bottling it and voting for the status quo when it counts (the 1992 UK general election). Neck and neck is an amazing (and terrifying) accomplishment for the Yes vote, but they needed to be in the lead since that first debate if it was to bring the more timid to throw caution to the wind. They wont do it. Theres too much benefit to both sides of the argument (complete self determination and high risk vs the status quo, more moderate self determination, and little risk). And if theres no overwhelming reason to change, then why change? Its not going to happen. But the run up is going to scare the shit out of the general public and the international media right up to polling day. I think the British media are playing it up a bit for the soap opera drama of it all, but im sure they know already where this ones going.

     

    Im kinda gutted in a way. But not too much. If i was there, id vote yes. Not because im particularly convinced that Scotland will suddenly flourish, but because self determination trumps everything else. Its not a difficult choice for me to make and Id genuinely like to be a part of that. I could see myself going back to Scotland within the next 4 or 5 years in the event of a Yes vote. Which is more than i can say about the UK as a whole. Id like to stay as far as **** away from the UK as i possibly can, to be honest. Im not going back there by choice if i can help it any time in the next 30 years for anything other than a holiday or funerals.

     

    But it's the flip thats the problem for the Yes vote. Because the UK IS prosperous. Because the UK is wealthy. Because the UK is successful. Take away the oil reserves and we get out more than we put in. Factor them in and we give more than we take out. But its close. And the fact we can retain free education and control over our health service on top of this (as well as raise tax to go some way to paying for our priorities as a people), isnt a bad trade off. That we're being offered even more power to control our policy as a state regardless of whether we squeeze through a no vote or romp one through the gates, is again, just more benefits than loss. Its that balance thats the worst enemy of the Yes vote. Project fear has always been on a hiding. once you get past that, you see that its really a choice of two great options (theres no such thing as a status quo vote). And in that case, people will be more likely to vote for moderate change over radical change on the day.

  18. squeaked under 80kg for first tie since arriving in China. Literally squeaked it though - 79.9. Still, thats about 2kgs lost from the crash. Not bad considering its had time to consolidate. I reckon without the assistance, id be still around 81.5ish. So a decent move from the plateau. By the end of the session it should be around 77 or so and since im claiming 5lbs of extra muscle mass, im deciding that puts me at 75 :)

  19. I just think that labour voters turning to independence are responsible for this swing. And that those same labour supporters have no long standing interest in independence. They want devolved power, greater representation, and more collective powers (and the ability to actually affect change), but they also want that change to take place throughout the whole of Britain and with the support of the other (Keynsian) labour heartlands.

     

    They want an end to zero-hour contracts, they want a livable minimum wage, they want employee rights, they want free health care and education. They want opportunity and the promise of the Consensus. Basically they want social justice and fair pay and conditions. And they think, probably rightly, that their interest lies in changing the programme of the Parliamentary Labour Party in Westminster rather than the more narrow focus on the Scottish Labour Party. This vote allows them to scare the bejesus out of the PLP and allow them another chance to turn away from austerity and deliver something that their heartlands want: social justice, opportunity and a strong welfare state. As i said in the OP, its nostalgia for Keynesian policy that drives this more than romance about freedom or self-determination. And this is why i think that on the day, theyll switch back.

     

    At the end of it, this should have been the message of better together. Instead they spent their time offering only the PLP vision of 2016 and beyond. And i can tell you hand on my heart, that Ed Balls statements about welfare and austerity arent playing to me or to your average Glasgow labour supporter. Theyre playing to the swing voter in the south east, and thats why Labour are getting a bloody nose right now. Theyve taken for granted their supporters and have betrayed the possibility of real or significant choice in any general election.

     

    This is as much a referendum on the PLP as it is on Scotland. And i feel its been a genuine eye-opener for them. If it turns out that labour are taking this on board and can bring about a genuine offer for Scotland in these final days, youll see enough labour supporters come back. If they offer nothing but an empty promise, you'll see them desert the ship in droves. I have a feeling though that theyll offer something akin to what most people said they wanted and it will be substantial enough to keep the conversation going. Then again, im still stuck in a 1980s time warp with my grandad spitting fury at the 6 oclock news every time Thatcher appeared on the telly, so i may have mythologised this a little. :)

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