Weather forecast

[Ocean11 0]

I have consulted my resort watch and its snowmen, clouds and umbrellas, and for Goryu it says it will be 'Snow, stopping occasionally'. I have also consulted the Hakuba Now! page which conspicuously doesn't mention snow.

 

I have every confidence in our Hakuba correspondent and believe he and his carefully cultivated cadre of sources always report accurately. But what of those mendacious little snowmen with their variously coloured hats? If what they have to say about today is anything to go by, isn't there more than a little room for doubt about their predictions for the coming week?

 

Ah, if only there was a reliable forecast! Does nobody on this board suspect they may have untapped powers of clairvoyancy?

[damian 0]

Don't bother trying to predict the future, there is no need and it is not possible. Rather, in the face of uncertainty always assume that the trend is your friend. The trend at this time of year is for more snow as each day passes.

 

You will find plenty of instances where this tactic fails but on the average over the long run the successes will out weigh the fails, which will be smaller and more frequent than the successes.

 

What you need to do is assign a buzz factor to each trip to the snow. It is vital that you are not biased each time you rate the trip. Poor snow/weather earns a -1 thru -5. There will be plenty of these. The great days should* give you more of a buzz than the bad days gave you a minus buzz, so one great day will pay-off several bad days. Assign the great day minimum of +1, but be prepared to really give it a good rating. Translate the buzz into a number. I bet you sometimes feel so buzzed that you want to give it a +20 or even +50. What this says is that any great day is instantly giving you a good feeling, but a bad day can give you a variable amount of minus feeling, but not that much, after all, you were on the snow and that is better than the stinking hot Nagano summer. At the end of the season add up your daily ratings and I bet it is >0. If so, you ended teh season better (happier) than you started it.

 

An alternative is to assign a (-1*cost of lift pass) to a bad day. That way your downside is limited. Then after a good day think about what value you would substitute for V in the following: (V*cost of lift pass). Then complete the multiplication. This is how much you would have paid for the great day. Then subtract the cost of lift pass to give you your $ gain, ie how much more you would have been prepared to pay but didnt have to. Again, add all these pay-offs up at the end of the season.

 

For the "trend is your friend" approach to work you need to go as often as you can.

 

Think of it in terms of the strike rate of a baseball player. Babe Ruth... many swings and misses, more than most, but a better average on the long term (I can't actually claim any understanding of baseball, I just read it some where).

 

* If you are a rational person you should always get more from the gain than the loss. Most people are wired irrationally and will over-weight the loss. They will avoid the game of chance where the probability of losing a small amount is greater than winning a large amount. Then they will turn around and play a game where the probability of a gain is far greater than that of a pain, but the gain is small compared to the gain.

[Ocean11 0]

I said 'untapped powers of clairvoyancy' not 'verbosity'!

[enderzero 0]

I just put my faith in the ol Double Doppler.

[Ocean11 0]

 

Look, y'see! Those snowmen are backsliding!

 

The ones that were all lined up on Fri, Sat, Sun, Mon have slipped back a couple of boxes to Sun, Mon, Tues, Wed!

 

Little white-trash scumbags!