[Hakuba this past weekend]

Point taken CB. It was late March however and the conditions were settled.

[Hakuba this past weekend]

Originally Posted By: Creek Boy

>Would I find much of that kind of thing, lift-accessable, at Tsugaike? What are the ski-patrol like there?

I think patrol are only really anal about people riding the S. faces and W. faces because most of them run to the gelende. Many of you might remember 4 years ago or so when the assistant professor at some uni took a group skiing, and even though the cat track was roped off because of avi danger, he still took them down it. In the end 1 girl died and another 1 or 2 had slight injuries. So, if they catch you there Id imagine they'd pull your pass. Other areas (in my experience when I had season passes there for 3 years) they didnt bother.

CB, I'm not really sure of where you guys were but I've also had some excellent tree skiing at Tsugaike that was easily accessible by cat track. It didn't look particularly prone to avalanches though.

[Niseko bubble about to burst?]

Originally Posted By: Go Native

Quote:

We've been working closely with some major Japanese travel agents to get our product in their brochures and have a big presence on some of the most popular travel websites

Um....we are trying hard on the Japanese market as well as I said above. It goes beyond just the above as well, we've had talks about the region with JNTO officials and government ministers about focusing on Niseko and marketing this region more.

When it comes to marketing and promotion, Japanese officialdom is completely lost. Just today, I ventured into downtown Osaka where I saw thousands of Chinese package tourists milling around, while a flotilla of ultra-right wing knuckle-heads paraded down the main road berating Korea and China (or whatever BS was oh the menu for the day). All it will take is one Chinese newspaper to pick up on this and the economic benefit will be lost. It would probably comes a surprise to the officials that this might even be a problem.

[Niseko bubble about to burst?]

Originally Posted By: gurgle

Originally Posted By: tripitaka

Well, there you have it. "As long as prices keep going up," so it's effectively a Ponzi scheme

More like a tontine than a ponzi scheme I reckon.....

Yes, I guess ponzi has bad connotations, but where they're both similar is that you need a steady flow of punters to keep it going.

[Niseko bubble about to burst?]

Originally Posted By: gurgle

Originally Posted By: tripitaka

Originally Posted By: Mamabear

I really don't understand Trip.... how is the Aussie property market much different from the US Market, the Canadian Market, the UK Market, the NZ Market...and at east a few European markets?

I don't actually think it is that different Mama, particularly when you think of its explosive growth due to a credit bubble.

There are some differences for sure, mostly to do with taxes. The aussie "model" if you like, is to keep buying a bigger and more expensive house as you can afford it and then sell it when you retire and live off all those tax free capital gains. It's a good model from what I can see! As long as prices keep going up like they have.

Well, there you have it. "As long as prices keep going up," so it's effectively a Ponzi scheme in the absence of higher incomes and productivity. But one of the problems is that private debt cannot keep increasing exponentially, which is why the Aussie govt is plugging the gap (with taxpayer money of course). Aussie has to borrow most of its capital offshore to continue the facade and the banks are reliant on ever-increasing prices. Eventually, someone will have to pay the piper.

[Niseko bubble about to burst?]

Originally Posted By: Go Native

I certianly wouldn't compare it to real estate trends in other rural areas of Hokkaido. If you can show me any other town, city or resort in Japan with such a large international investment interest then lets compare it to them. I know large cities like Tokyo attract large amounts of foreign investors for big commercial properties but that isn't the case up here just yet. It's mostly been individual investors buying one apartment or house. It does appear to be changing a little now though with some of the big Asian companies coming in with big plans, like in Hanazono, building a whole village from scratch.
Or lets compare Niseko to other international ski areas that have gone through rapid growth.

OK, as a Kiwi, I will say Wanaka and Queenstown, both of which rely on a significant of foreign investment, but relatively more local investment than Niseko receives from the Japanese (I cannot verify that though).
Queenstown is more developed than Niseko, but QT property is probably "less risky" because of its relatively greater through-traffic. Anyone with any knowledge of NZ property will realize that Central Otago is in serious bubble territory and prices have been incredibly volatile since the GFC.

[Niseko bubble about to burst?]

Originally Posted By: Mamabear

I really don't understand Trip.... how is the Aussie property market much different from the US Market, the Canadian Market, the UK Market, the NZ Market...and at east a few European markets?

I don't actually think it is that different Mama, particularly when you think of its explosive growth due to a credit bubble.

[Niseko bubble about to burst?]

Originally Posted By: Go Native

Nothing stupid about it. The property market here has been purely driven by international interest and invesment. The buyers have been almost entirely international investors. Most of the financing for all developments here has been through international lenders. Quite simply the pricing and growth experienced here has nothing to do with what is happening in the domestic real estate market.

So am I allowed to make any comparison with foreign REITs that are also reliant on foreign funding and investors? Or is Niseko different to those as well? Your argument is that Niseko exists in a bubble (excuse the pun) so we cannot compare it with anything else.

[Niseko bubble about to burst?]

Originally Posted By: Go Native

There is no point at all in comparing the property market in Niseko to the rest of Japan because what happened here was never part of the Japanese market and I doubt ever will be.

That's just plain stupid. Niseko is in Japan. How can it not be part of the Japanese market? Foreigners are relatively recent on the scene so I think it's a bit early to be calling your own sovereign nation up there.

[Niseko bubble about to burst?]

Originally Posted By: Go Native

Why do you care though? I mean so what? Whether or not you agree with the Aussie attitude towards property investing certainly means little to those who've made small and large fortunes from it over the last 15-20 years. And certainly very little to those who made a bucket load of cash over the last 6-7 years in Niseko on property. Like any investment property investing will come with risks and there are good and bad times to buy and sell.
There is no point at all in comparing the property market in Niseko to the rest of Japan because what happened here was never part of the Japanese market and I doubt ever will be.

Well I thought this was a "forum," so I'm just expressing what I think (with reasons and examples). If there were a property slump in Niseko, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. If people make stack loads of money out of property, I say all power to them. OTOH, you can argue that Niseko is different to rest of Japan. In fact, that's the same argument that they're using in Australia: that Australia is different to the rest of the world. All I'm saying is that I'm not convinced (in the case of Niseko or Australia) that it is.

[Niseko bubble about to burst?]

Most of the comments here support what I believe.... that Aussie attitudes about property are different to the rest of the world. Of course, there are some unique factors behind that, including some of the largest private debt levels in the world and a govt that has spent billions of taxpayer money to prop up the market. It's all about debt, plain and simple.

 

The idea that property prices only go up is ludicrous at best, especially in the case of Japanese ski resorts (or Japanese property in general). Also, one of the key tenets of investing is that past performance is not indicative of future growth. Just because Aussie has never experienced falling property prices doesn't mean that it will never happen. And creating inflation to prevent prices falling is a recipe for disaster. Inflation is nobody's friend. Hence, the old man who lives in the manor who can't afford to get his roof fixed.

[Niseko bubble about to burst?]

Originally Posted By: Go Native

Property value is purely and simply what people are prepared to pay. Aussies though certainly have a very different perception about property as an invesment to what seems normal in Japan.

Ahh.... yeah. While I admire your free market philosophy, property valuation is much more than what "people are prepared to pay," particularly as a smart investment. However, I agree with you that the Australian obsession with property as an investment is completely different from what is normal in Japan. I think it's fair to say that if we remove the Aussies from the equation, then the Niseko boom would have been mild at best.

[Niseko bubble about to burst?]

I don't know about Niseko, but some of the property prices (commercial/private) being asked for in Hakuba seem way out of line to what they're worth. From what I can see, most of the demand is from Australians, who seem to live in another universe on the issue of assessing property value.

[Snowboard shops in Osaka]

Originally Posted By: Ryoma

There's a big sports store at the Nishi-Shinsaibashi area of dotonbori. They had a large selection of boards from what I remember but I don't really remember how they compared in price. (Also don't remember the name, sorry ._.) It's basically on the Dotonbori Mido-Suji bridge. Unfortunately, I bascially only know ski shops but best of luck!

It's called Spotaka and it's probably the best store in that area. Further up the Midosuji, in Europa-mura, there is a very expensive Burton store. The best deals on snowboards are probably out in the burbs at places such as Sports Depot.

[Resorts having trouble working out how to succeed...]

Originally Posted By: Go Native

The real question is why is the domestic market not skiing as much anymore? Obviously it has something to do with disposable income but frankly the Japanese are some of the best savers in the world and there's still plenty of money going around, I don't believe it's just because they can't afford it.
Personally I think it's mainly because they haven't done their job in marketing skiing to the next generations. Skiing has changed a lot in the last 20 years or so including the massive increase in boarders and a movement worldwide for fatter skis and off-piste skiing. The vast bulk of Japanese resorts though still look and are run just like they were in the 80's, nothing has changed. It might have been cool in the 80's but it aint anymore! It's as tripitaka says nothing changes here and they'd rather go down staying the same than change to try and keep up with changing markets.

GN, I think it also has something to do with the dire economic situation. As you rightly point out, the Japanese are among the world's best savers (if not the the best), but disposable incomes here are bloody grim and the outlook is just as bleak.

For westerners, it's more socially acceptable to follow your own instincts and head off around the world to do things you want to do. In Japan, I think that attitude is not as prevalent and it's something you might do if you're a student, etc. Then again, there are exceptions.

As for the business perspective, from my experience in the Japanese corporate world, I think most people are content to keep their mouths shut and wait for retirement or pay day while accepting the status quo with the attitude that change is more trouble than it's worth.

[Resorts having trouble working out how to succeed...]

Originally Posted By: gurgle

Hard to see somewhere like Happo close, but I find that resort a mess of lifts. Then someone told me they were all seperately owned and it made a lot of sense why things had not been improved.

Note, this has all been heard from others.

I'm just repeating gossip and I don't really know, but I heard that Happo is carved up by different farming families whose principles are not conducive to change.

[Resorts having trouble working out how to succeed...]

Like many businesses in Japan, ski resorts would rather run their operations into the ground rather than change. That might be a cynical observation but anyone with any experience in the local business world will find that hypotheses to be generally valid.

 

Like the golf course industry, most ski resorts need a good shake out or they should fold altogether. Even the crown jewels such as Happo have their issues.

[Buying ski boots: Hakuba or Tokyo?]

Some good sales on in Hakuba at the moment. My mate picked some nice boots at Yamato-ya near the station for 30% off.

[Warming Up on Honshu]

It feels unseasonably warm today in Kansai. Are we about to get a a warm patch of weather?

[NZ certification course for ski instructors]

The question about the NZ course having any relevance here is moot. The question should be do Japan training courses have any relevance anywhere else. For avalanche skills training, I think Japan would be way behind if it weren't for foreign trainers and organizations.

[Cortina (Hakuba) after a dump - not open till 11am?]

Originally Posted By: rider69

This season many people know about the trees and they are open. By 11am you will find Cortina tracked out.

Yes. We were at Happo on Dec 30th and we were talking to Australian tourist on the gondola who skied the trees at Cortina the previous day. The foreign owner of the lodge he was staying at has been telling all and sundry.

[Cash & Credit card in Niseko area]

Originally Posted By: thursday

It started December 14th 2009.

I think you're right Thurs. From Dec 14th, MasterCard and cards on the Maestro system can't be used at 7-11.

[Seeking Advice on where to Stay and Snowboard in Hakuba]

Originally Posted By: Leaf Girl

Hi All
My boyfriend and I are coming to Japan in March for a snowboarding holiday. This will be our first trip to Japan so I'm seeking some advice on where to stay and snowboard. We've chosen to come to Hakuba but there are so many different areas I just don't know where to go.
I'm a beginner (only ever been on a snowboard once) and my boyfriend is advanced. I think I'd like a lesson, although ppl tell me that I'll pick it up pretty quickly as I can kiteboard. Which section of Hakuba do you think would suit us both?
As for a recommendation of where abouts to stay I would like to try japanese accommodation to get the full Japan experience. I'd also like to have a private hot spring as I have a tattoo on my back and have been told that I won't be allowed in the public hot springs. We don't want to spend too much but I don't want to stay in backpackers either.
Any advice/comments/suggestions on what area of Hakuba to pick and accommodation would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks for your help!
Cheers
Alison

I think the problem you face is that the Japanese accommodation is less accessible than the foreign-targeted accommodation (for the obvious reasons of language). If it's a "full Japanese experience" you're after, Hakuba may not be the best option. If I were you, I would go for the relatively comfortable option of the "tourist experience" and experience the Japanese side of things through food, drink, etc. Also, given that it's your first time and you're not that familiar with snowboarding, you will probably find that foreigners are more helpful.

I think the best learners slopes in Hkba are over at San-Ozaka or perhaps Tsugaike. However, they're both a bit isolated from the action.

[How many times have you had your lift ticket confiscated by Ski Patrol?]

Is this an example of devil's advocate or just a bored Fri arvo troll??

[How many times have you had your lift ticket confiscated by Ski Patrol?]

Originally Posted By: Go Native

Well tripler you could try and just walk away I guess. I'd suspect they'd call the police though. There was a case some time back down in the Hakuba area I think where some patrol guys got in a physical altercation with some foreigner refusing to give up his pass. Can't remember the details though.

There was also a case of where a local foreigner was reported to immigration. Fortunately, for his sake, the fact that he has family here stopped it going even further.