montoya
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Posts posted by montoya
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tashiro's lot is free everyday. mitsumata, 1000/day for everyone on the weekends/holidays, regardless if you have a season pass or not. apparently it's a new thing.
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Just wondering, do your season passes cover parking-fees? We got a big surprise when we looked at this year's Kagura passes, which cover parking only at one lot. Otherwise it's 1000yen on the weekends/holidays.
When I asked around, there's alot of people not too happy with this. So far about 20 have said they will get passes for other resorts this year.
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sweet. nice autumn colors in that last shot.
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I also don't think statistical odds accumulate per se.
Still, that leaves me with law of large numbers, which your second example alludes to. Since the principle is that the probability of any possible event occurring at least once in a series increases with the number of events in the series, we can rephrase the example as 1 person (me) going out into avie terrain 100 days a season.
But, probably the observed frequency of an avie-accident will also vary on the type of risk as well (eg 25 degree slope vs 35 degree slope, timing of new snowfall, heavily forested area vs bowl terrain, etc).
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pretty cool site, has basic daily weather data for Japan back to 2002:
http://www.weathermap.co.jp/kishojin/diary/200203/index.php3
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timely post keba. Lately I've been thinking about this more, as we are in the mountains alot and unfortunately there are alot of accidents out there:
*do statistical odds accumulate?
*if the law of large numbers dictates that probabilities will be borne out if an event occurs often enough, is there anything you can do to lessen exposure?
*does individual choice mitigate the odds or frequency?
*is risk random or not?
*are random events governed by probability?
*can you reduce exposure to random statistical averages, for example by good skills?
probably someone with a stronger background in math or risk management will know more..
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I've been looking over some pix from last year recently, here are a few various avie photos for anyone interested in this kind of stuff.
2005.12.14
kagura, ridge near gangamine. during 12/10-12/13 it snowed continually
2006.01.13
triggered while hiking up to nakaone. snowed pretty hard 2 days before this.
2006.03.25
big slide at Tairappyo a few days before. last pic is from the traverse out towards Tsuchitaru
2006.04.22
Makihatayama. old debris on left, fresh sluffs on right from snow earlier same morning
2006.04.29
Yarigatake. loose snow slides from previous day's 30-40cm new snow heating up
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nice photos, big big mountains.
10 meters/minute is a pretty good pace, especially hauling up a tent.
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more than you ever wanted to know about artificial snow:
http://pubs.acs.org/cen/whatstuff/stuff/8203snow.html
I'll wait for the real stuff to fall, till then will probably go out for a few more hikes.
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for anyone around Tokyo, there's an event held annually in Ikebukuro where you can pick up discount tickets, etc. usually long lines, but might be worth it to save a few bucks. http://www.sunshinecity.co.jp/winterresort/index.html
unfortunately, no such tix for naeba/kagura this year. prince hotels is getting mighty stingy these days.
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lastest issue of FallLine Magazine (2007) has an article of Daisuke Sasaki hiking up and riding down with a 4-man crew, some face called "Nishi-Kabe". Steep steep terrain, 14 hour round trip.
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any hunters out there?
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061024/od_uk_nm/oukoe_uk_life_japan_bears_1
As Japan's people grow older, bears grow bolder
Tue Oct 24, 7:05 AM ET
Scarce acorns, silent guns and rural depopulation are bringing Japan's bears out of the woods.
The number of Japanese black bears caught feasting in fields of sweet corn, apples and other crops has jumped this year, with the animals increasingly undisturbed by hunters, whose ranks are dwindling as the population ages.
"There are plenty of bears out there who've never even heard a gunshot, so if they do see people, they think it's OK not to run away," said Hidetake Hayashi of the Shinshu Black Bear Research Group, which monitors bears in Nagano prefecture.
Black bears can grow to about 1.5 metres (5 ft) in height and weigh 100 kg (220 lbs) or more.
Docile when left alone, they can be dangerous if caught unawares, and recent newscasts have reported attacks on humans.
The number of hunters in Japan has fallen from almost half a million in the late 1970s to about 150,000 in 2005, according to Dainihon Ryoyukai, the Japan hunters' association, so people might appear less intimidating to their ursine neighbours.
In Gifu prefecture, rangers have shot 121 bears since the start of April, six times as many as in the previous 12 months, the Yomiuri daily reported.
Gifu University's Professor Toshio Tsubota, who heads the Japan Bear Network, a nationwide body involved in bear research, said a skimpy acorn crop this year was the most likely cause of the rise in number of sightings.
The shortage of their favourite food has forced the bears to seek other sustenance before hibernating at the end of autumn.
A longer-term reason was rural depopulation, Tsubota added. As fewer villagers venture into the woods to chop down trees for firewood, the border zone between forest and village has eroded.
"The villages have thinned out," the Shinshu group's Hayashi said. "Bears may now think it's all right for them to be there."
But ultimately, he said, there was no clear single reason for the sharp rise in sightings.
"You'll have to go and ask the bears," he said.
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thought it was 80/20, look like it's much more skewed than that.
guess I'm in that second category, but slipping back to lurker status. it's nice to check out the forums time to time for gossip/stoke, but given the limited amount of time in day I'd rather be outside actually doing something, like hiking up a mountain, bike-riding, etc.
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here's a bit more news on the hakuba-accident Mr Wiggles mentioned..
http://www.shinmai.co.jp/news/20061010/KT061009FTI090002000022.htm
http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20061011-00000044-mailo-l20
http://dailynews.yahoo.co.jp/fc/domestic/mountain_accidents/
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We hiked from Tsubakuro-Yarigatake this past Sat 8-Mon 10, yeah it was an interesting time to be in the mountains up there. This is near the peak of Tsubakuro on Sat. In some places the snow was around 30cm from wind-drift.
day 2 early morning
day 3 looking at Yarigatake from Tengu-Hara
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not really related to tokyo shops (it's in chiba), but this place is running some pretty good deals on snowboard-related stuff.
http://www.rakuten.co.jp/sports-ex/504360/
looks like a direct-importer, so I don't know what the warranty situation would be.
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nunoba is the bottom part of yuzawa-kogen, pretty easy to walk to from onsen-dori.
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nice one dizzy.
Kumapix and Bushpig, seems like you two have some pretty good cameras. got any good pics??
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places I've seen around yuzawa that seem to be more family-oriented are iwappara, nunoba, nakazato. nunoba is pretty close to osen-dori, you can probably play around on the lower slopes w/o needing a lift-ticket (eg bring a plastic sled, etc). for playing around on snowshoes, maybe the big central park near the river might be good.
tashiro, I don't recall any kids area there. it can get mighty windy, cold and icy up there..
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you can see more pics of that line on Tonegawa's guide-site:
唐松不帰二峰
http://www.valley.ne.jp/~color/indexstaff.htm
1999
http://www.valley.ne.jp/~color/indexfukinihouhokuhou.htm
2003
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various mountains in the Niigata area.Quote:Originally posted by Fattwins:
are those all around kagura?
I have a digital-camera. I took alot.Quote:
Wow !!! (as usual).
Montoya, how many pics do you reckon you took last season?
*we need more pics from other people! -
it's a rainy sunday, so here are a few more pics:
me on nice drop-in
hoping he doesn't run into me
face shot (or did he crash?)
Season Passes
in Snow talk, trip reports, Japan avalanche & backcountry
Posted
yep, we might do some road-trips to the mountains around Myoko and Hakuba this year, if things come together..