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I've noticed that some people on some threads show interest in the weather forecasts for niseko. So I thought instead of writing scattered posts here and there I'll keep this thread to update whatever I know. As you could read in the latest "Niseko now" this morning, the forecast for the next week was a bit of warm weather together with some rain on Tuesday. At this stage the forecast has changed again, and instead of rain we have snow from Tuesday everyday until Friday (inclusive). The highest temperature forecasted is for Monday (9C) and the lowest is for Friday (-4C).

 

This is good news but we should remember that weather forecasts for more than 3 days are not very reliable, so it could change considerably.

 

This time I took the data from Yahoo weather which in Japan is a more less reliable source for weather forecasts. Anyone can check the forecasts by himself/herself by going to weather.yahoo.co.jp and writing the name of the place (in kanji).

 

From time to time, complementary to the "Niseko now" reports, I hope to update this, for as long as people think it's useful.

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"Niseko Now" is the best source of information withing SJ for anyone wanting to know what's going on in Niseko on a regular basis. And I myself check it everyday.

 

This morning the weather forecast was rain for next week and since "Niseko now" is only updated once a day, anyone who checks "Niseko now" will see rain. But since I knew the forecast had changed I thought I might make some faces smile by posting it. This is what I plan to do whenever possible. When "Niseko now" is enough I will just don't post anything.

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Niseko forecasts, let me see…

 

This season's forecast:

 

There has been a well heeled front moving into town over the last few seasons and this is expected to last for a few more seasons at least. The precipitation into the local economy contiues to persist while another Australian money stream is expected to bring sunshine into the village over the next few months.

 

Overall the outlook is bright with little chance of deflation in this bubble for the time being.

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Take a look at these sites for forecasts

 

Japan Meteorological Agency

 

Medium Range Forecasts for East Asia

 

Looks like the cold air may move through earlier than first expected on Tuesday. I still think we'll get some rain ahead of the front but hopefully not as much as originally thought.

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Thanks for the links Go Native.

It's true that on Tuesday the temperature won't be the ideal for snow if precipitation finally moves in the area of Niseko, so I guess our best chance is if the precipitation falls at night which I can't work out by looking at the maps. We'll have to wait I guess.

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I think yahoo Japan gives as detailed and accurate as any forecast but notice that if you click the medium range forecast, it's the same for Sapporo and Niseko-cho. (Same goes for Nagano city and Hakuba). You can bet that the mountain will be more snowy and less rainy than the city. Maybe that Aussie guy who's going to Niseko in-like-two days will get lucky and the lifts will be running at least. As we know, it can dump a meter in two days easily.

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Tuesday huh? On the 850mb map for Tuesday I can see a small area of moisture around the area of Niseko. That means precipitation. The temperature at 850mb is high: -6 (that's at about 1,600m above sea level) and means that if there is precipitation the snow will melt before it reaches the ground, in other words you'll most likely get rain, although it could be snow on the top which is over 1000m. On Wednesday however the isotherm for the area of Niseko says -12 which means you should get a decent -8C (or around it anyway) on the top of the mountain, and below zero at village level. This means that if there's precipitation, which I infer from the maps to be quite possible, it will hopefully be snow. From then on there is snow forecasted everyday until Sunday of the next week. It is also forecasted to get colder everyday, so hopefully "winter is here" for Niseko.

 

This is what I can interpret with my limited knowledge by looking at the maps. I could be wrong though, or the maps themselves could be wrong. Weather follows its own pace and that's the beauty of it. Anyway, it looks like there's good news for people heading to Niseko early in the season, and I hope it actually turns as forecasted and you can have a great time, especially the aussie guy coming all the way from Australia.

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Snow-forecast gets WHEN its going to snow fairly right but they totally underestimate the AMOUNT of snow. I think their system is calibrated for frontal snow and they don't take into consideration the lake-effect part of the snowfall which is usually the biggest component in snowfall in Japan.

 

My favourite weather website - never lets me down!! Unisys MRF

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The lake effect is nothing more than cold air gaining moisture as it passes over lakes and such water concentrations. I think what Matt means is that snow-forecast just takes into consideration oceanic/sea evaporation.

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I'm not sure people around here pay much attention to the weather forecasts. Soubriquette certainly doesn't. We know it's going to start snowing very soon, and it's going to continue into March.

 

If you can't see the mountains, it's snowing. If you can see them, it's going to snow.

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