coldcat 0 Posted November 24, 2006 Share Posted November 24, 2006 I've noticed that some people on some threads show interest in the weather forecasts for niseko. So I thought instead of writing scattered posts here and there I'll keep this thread to update whatever I know. As you could read in the latest "Niseko now" this morning, the forecast for the next week was a bit of warm weather together with some rain on Tuesday. At this stage the forecast has changed again, and instead of rain we have snow from Tuesday everyday until Friday (inclusive). The highest temperature forecasted is for Monday (9C) and the lowest is for Friday (-4C). This is good news but we should remember that weather forecasts for more than 3 days are not very reliable, so it could change considerably. This time I took the data from Yahoo weather which in Japan is a more less reliable source for weather forecasts. Anyone can check the forecasts by himself/herself by going to weather.yahoo.co.jp and writing the name of the place (in kanji). From time to time, complementary to the "Niseko now" reports, I hope to update this, for as long as people think it's useful. Link to post Share on other sites
skidaisuki 0 Posted November 24, 2006 Share Posted November 24, 2006 Thanks Coldcat, you're doing a good job that helps a lot of people. It would certainly be a useful complement to the Niseko Now reports, though I suspect those'll be being updated pretty regularly from now on... Link to post Share on other sites
SnowJapan Moderator SnowJapan.Com#4 5 Posted November 24, 2006 SnowJapan Moderator Share Posted November 24, 2006 Every day! Link to post Share on other sites
coldcat 0 Posted November 24, 2006 Author Share Posted November 24, 2006 "Niseko Now" is the best source of information withing SJ for anyone wanting to know what's going on in Niseko on a regular basis. And I myself check it everyday. This morning the weather forecast was rain for next week and since "Niseko now" is only updated once a day, anyone who checks "Niseko now" will see rain. But since I knew the forecast had changed I thought I might make some faces smile by posting it. This is what I plan to do whenever possible. When "Niseko now" is enough I will just don't post anything. Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted November 24, 2006 Share Posted November 24, 2006 Niseko forecasts, let me see… This season's forecast: There has been a well heeled front moving into town over the last few seasons and this is expected to last for a few more seasons at least. The precipitation into the local economy contiues to persist while another Australian money stream is expected to bring sunshine into the village over the next few months. Overall the outlook is bright with little chance of deflation in this bubble for the time being. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted November 25, 2006 Share Posted November 25, 2006 Take a look at these sites for forecasts Japan Meteorological Agency Medium Range Forecasts for East Asia Looks like the cold air may move through earlier than first expected on Tuesday. I still think we'll get some rain ahead of the front but hopefully not as much as originally thought. Link to post Share on other sites
coldcat 0 Posted November 25, 2006 Author Share Posted November 25, 2006 Thanks for the links Go Native. It's true that on Tuesday the temperature won't be the ideal for snow if precipitation finally moves in the area of Niseko, so I guess our best chance is if the precipitation falls at night which I can't work out by looking at the maps. We'll have to wait I guess. Link to post Share on other sites
gerard 6 Posted November 25, 2006 Share Posted November 25, 2006 I think yahoo Japan gives as detailed and accurate as any forecast but notice that if you click the medium range forecast, it's the same for Sapporo and Niseko-cho. (Same goes for Nagano city and Hakuba). You can bet that the mountain will be more snowy and less rainy than the city. Maybe that Aussie guy who's going to Niseko in-like-two days will get lucky and the lifts will be running at least. As we know, it can dump a meter in two days easily. Link to post Share on other sites
coldcat 0 Posted November 26, 2006 Author Share Posted November 26, 2006 It looks like the cold front won't arrive on Tuesday. The current forecast is rain for Tuesday. Today the highest was 7C. Link to post Share on other sites
coldcat 0 Posted November 26, 2006 Author Share Posted November 26, 2006 That blue mass on top of hokkaido is a front coming from the north. It should leave plenty of snow. Hopefully. Link to post Share on other sites
coldcat 0 Posted November 26, 2006 Author Share Posted November 26, 2006 But before that we probably have coming rain from the south, although not much it seems. Link to post Share on other sites
Lachy 0 Posted November 26, 2006 Share Posted November 26, 2006 ahh sweet! I arrive in niseko on tuesday! wooo thanks for the updates, very helpful. Link to post Share on other sites
coldcat 0 Posted November 26, 2006 Author Share Posted November 26, 2006 Tuesday huh? On the 850mb map for Tuesday I can see a small area of moisture around the area of Niseko. That means precipitation. The temperature at 850mb is high: -6 (that's at about 1,600m above sea level) and means that if there is precipitation the snow will melt before it reaches the ground, in other words you'll most likely get rain, although it could be snow on the top which is over 1000m. On Wednesday however the isotherm for the area of Niseko says -12 which means you should get a decent -8C (or around it anyway) on the top of the mountain, and below zero at village level. This means that if there's precipitation, which I infer from the maps to be quite possible, it will hopefully be snow. From then on there is snow forecasted everyday until Sunday of the next week. It is also forecasted to get colder everyday, so hopefully "winter is here" for Niseko. This is what I can interpret with my limited knowledge by looking at the maps. I could be wrong though, or the maps themselves could be wrong. Weather follows its own pace and that's the beauty of it. Anyway, it looks like there's good news for people heading to Niseko early in the season, and I hope it actually turns as forecasted and you can have a great time, especially the aussie guy coming all the way from Australia. Link to post Share on other sites
thursday 1 Posted November 27, 2006 Share Posted November 27, 2006 Lachy, none of the lifts are moving. Looks like you'll have to hike it. Link to post Share on other sites
Fattwins 0 Posted November 27, 2006 Share Posted November 27, 2006 I hope that you are there for the season. Link to post Share on other sites
skidaisuki 0 Posted November 27, 2006 Share Posted November 27, 2006 Ahhh..... http://www.jma.go.jp/en/week/index.html That - from Wednesday - is what I like to see Link to post Share on other sites
soubriquet 0 Posted November 27, 2006 Share Posted November 27, 2006 This site has some very nice forecast charts. Link to post Share on other sites
coldcat 0 Posted November 28, 2006 Author Share Posted November 28, 2006 Snow-forecast is not very reliable in my experience, although they do get it right some times. Link to post Share on other sites
Markie 0 Posted November 28, 2006 Share Posted November 28, 2006 At least a little snow is forecast for 6am tomorrow in Hakuba and then again on Sunday and Monday. Link to post Share on other sites
Matt 0 Posted November 28, 2006 Share Posted November 28, 2006 Snow-forecast gets WHEN its going to snow fairly right but they totally underestimate the AMOUNT of snow. I think their system is calibrated for frontal snow and they don't take into consideration the lake-effect part of the snowfall which is usually the biggest component in snowfall in Japan. My favourite weather website - never lets me down!! Unisys MRF Link to post Share on other sites
soubriquet 0 Posted November 28, 2006 Share Posted November 28, 2006 Care to elaborate on the "lake-effect"? Link to post Share on other sites
coldcat 0 Posted November 28, 2006 Author Share Posted November 28, 2006 The lake effect is nothing more than cold air gaining moisture as it passes over lakes and such water concentrations. I think what Matt means is that snow-forecast just takes into consideration oceanic/sea evaporation. Link to post Share on other sites
coldcat 0 Posted November 28, 2006 Author Share Posted November 28, 2006 by the way, I completely agree with Matt that they "totally underestimate the amount of snow". It's crazy they give you 1cm when others give 10 or 20cm. If they give over 10cm it means heavy snow. Link to post Share on other sites
soubriquet 0 Posted November 28, 2006 Share Posted November 28, 2006 I'm not sure people around here pay much attention to the weather forecasts. Soubriquette certainly doesn't. We know it's going to start snowing very soon, and it's going to continue into March. If you can't see the mountains, it's snowing. If you can see them, it's going to snow. Link to post Share on other sites
skidaisuki 0 Posted November 29, 2006 Share Posted November 29, 2006 Yay. It's definitely been snowing in Niseko today, if you take a look at the webcams... Link to post Share on other sites
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