The next 3 months weather in Yuzawa

[SnowJapan#Andrew 6]

Not that I'm watching the telly, but just now on telly they told us about the forecast for the next 3 months. Here's what they said:

 

October & November:

Warmer than "normal", winter fronts coming November

 

December:

Warmer than "normal", less snow than usual.

 

Here ends this in depth report covering all of the next 3 months. So, probably record amounts of snow then!!

[big-will 7]

 

Cool. How do they know so many details all that time before it actually happens. Amazing.

[soubriquet 0]

"They" use something called a General Circulation Model.

 

From here:

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/518.htm

 

"A numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical and biological properties of its components, their interactions and feedback processes, and accounting for all or some of its known properties. The climate system can be represented by models of varying complexity, i.e. for any one component or combination of components a hierarchy of models can be identified, differing in such aspects as the number of spatial dimensions, the extent to which physical, chemical or biological processes are explicitly represented, or the level at which empirical parametrizations are involved. Coupled atmosphere/ocean/sea-ice General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) provide a comprehensive representation of the climate system. There is an evolution towards more complex models with active chemistry and biology.

Climate models are applied, as a research tool, to study and simulate the climate, but also for operational purposes, including monthly, seasonal and interannual climate predictions."

 

GCMs are the models used for normal forecasting, and in complex areas such as Japan, are notoriously unreliable for the next day, let alone the next three months. They are also used to support the theory that global warming is going to cause the sky to fall in and we we are all going to die a horrible death.

[SnowJapan#Andrew 6]

Thanks for that sobriquet.

 

So lets take it all with a big pinch of salt.

[grungy-gonads 54]

Hey you guys should be hard at work preparing all our new fun stuff for this here site. Turn the tv off and get on with it.

[Yuki's Passion 1]

Yeah, but thats only Yuzawa. Other parts of Japan have 4 distinct seasons

 

So, Ill be expecting loads of snow up in Hokkaido, Tohoku, and Nagano...sorry Niigata and Hokuriku are getting left out this year

[Davo 1]

Well compared to NZ it's always an epic season in Japan. The powder is natures way of making up for the long punishment of summertime.

[seanbird 0]

yeah I agree,even a bad season in Japan is always good