All a bit ... odd

[miteyak 0]

Webcams showing perfect snow, but no tracks or people. After years of seeing resorts opening before the snow, artificial runs five meters wide surrounded by green, it's pretty weird.

[Ocean11 0]

Caught wrong-footed one might even say. But then I'll be called a simpleton by the SJ sophisticates for saying so...

 

Cortina's looking nice. Look at the way that groomer is just sitting idle with all that fresh snow arranged around it...

[SnowJapan.Com#3 0]

...not by the people running the website you won't.

 

Both "sides" have a point, but we know and understand the reasoning from many of the resorts on the situation.

[oo 1]

A japanese friend of mine told me this morning of a long-range report he supposedly heard. This year early snow, then in January we'll have hardly any snowfall and the season will again end really early.

[Ocean11 0]

I'm simply curious to know the reasoning myself, not having been made privy to it. It seems some people must have, as they pour scorn on any suggestion that, you know, a meter or two of snow lying around with no tracks in it is somehow not a waste.

 

When I refer to the SJ sophisticates, I mean some members of this forum who have got plenty of attitude but don't got much content, if you see what I mean. That obviously doesn't apply to the people running the website.

 

And if oo's mate has got it right, well, some resort managers might be kicking themselves.

[SnowJapan.Com#3 0]

We're not going to get into a big discussion on this (we've got a website to make!), and Blair will be writing about it soon, so this will just be a one-off posting....but here are just a few reasons that we have heard from resort-folk:

 

- Resorts start planning for the coming season very early. Many probably started around Jan of this year for the upcoming 2003 season. That means budgets, staffing plans, supply plans, maintenance plans, etc etc. It is easy to think that they can quickly change these plans if it suddenly starts to snow, but in many cases they simply can't.

 

- Resorts don't know when the snow will start falling and have to plan as best they can for an opening date based on past experience. For example, if they get 20 staff in from October in the hope that snow falls early, but the snow only starts to fall at the normal time for that resort in early December, they might find themselves in big trouble.

 

- Some resorts rely on many other companies for supplies, transportation, etc. These other companies may not be able to provide the services required by the resort at short notice.

 

- Some resorts feel that even if they could open to the public the benefits would be outweighed by the costs. They do not feel that enough people would be going to justify opening up earlier than planned.

 

Just a few reasons there that we have heard from the mouths of resort people. I think Blair will explain from his resorts point of view soon.

 

Thanks!

[miteyak 0]

As fa long range forecasts... is that the same one that a month ago was stating an average November-december and a good January? If they got the first month wrong...

 

Do these guys get paid?

 

Where can I get a job, i've a leg that stiffens when the barometer drops, and I sneeze six weeks before a cold front... do I qualify?

[damian 0]

Reasons of economics and logistics (or lack thereof)are probably the most reasonable for not opening even though there is snow.... but ... my cynical side wonders if it is the strong love for seasons that the Japanese have. Pools close on the last day of summer because "oh, WE dont swim anymore, it isnt summer", even though it is still 30+. The trains turn off the fans/aircon because it isnt summer, even though 200 people per carriage turns it into a sauna. Perhaps some resorts just dont open because it isnt the season for snow, regardless of whether it is falling or not.

[Ocean11 0]

Thanks!

 

That seems to be an overview of the resorts that have excuses for not opening. That's basically what they are I think. Evidently these restrictions don't apply to other resorts, as they're already open.

 

I think it's obvious, but if your business involves an element of uncertainty, you have to plan around that, and ensure that you can provide the service when that element is present. This planning certain resorts aren't doing.

 

It will certainly be interesting to see which resorts survive if the snow disappears before the predicted end of the season...

[talisker 0]

Manpower - no one wants to pay for manpower doing nothing...

[klingon 10]

They sound like very reasonable explanations to me.

[frannyo 2]

Some people don't seem to read and take in what they've read - it's sad really.

 

As for me, it seems obvious to me that resorts are not going to open if

 

a) they can't open for any number of reasons;

and

they think it's not worth it.

 

Whether some people accept this or not (when they rather foolishly I feel call them 'excuses') doesn't matter one jot. The ones making the more informed decisions are the resorts, not us mad snow nutters who just want to ride as early as possible.

[talisker 0]

frannyo big like....

[frannyo 2]

It just seems like common sense, that's all.

[Will Lee 0]

Oh no! Say it ain`t so! If the snow pattern is going to be like last year`s, I`m gonna go all out from early on.

[misia 0]

I don't think many people go even if open really early. I won't go until December anyway.

[Ocean11 0]

Very common sense frannyo. talisker, you seem to like people who say just what you want to hear. That figgers...

 

> Resorts start planning for the coming season very early. Many probably started around Jan of this year for the upcoming 2003 season. That means budgets, staffing plans, supply plans, maintenance plans, etc etc. It is easy to think that they can quickly change these plans if it suddenly starts to snow, but in many cases they simply can't.

 

- Have multiple plans, contingency plans, or no plan and save the planning money to spend on implementation when the time comes.

 

> Resorts don't know when the snow will start falling and have to plan as best they can for an opening date based on past experience. For example, if they get 20 staff in from October in the hope that snow falls early, but the snow only starts to fall at the normal time for that resort in early December, they might find themselves in big trouble.

 

- There is flexibility in the labour market these days, just as there is in the weather. Find attractive reasons for somebody to down tools and go to work at a resort at the drop of a hat.

 

> Some resorts rely on many other companies for supplies, transportation, etc. These other companies may not be able to provide the services required by the resort at short notice.

 

- Then find ones that can. Or consider which of these services are absolutely essential at the beginning, pay a premium for them, and do without the others.

 

 

> Some resorts feel that even if they could open to the public the benefits would be outweighed by the costs. They do not feel that enough people would be going to justify opening up earlier than planned

 

- I've been to Nozawa onsen 10 or more times and they still don't have my email address. Failure of imagination. Many resorts try to drag it out at the end when the snow is crap and people are starting to think of picnics and swimming. Dumb. Arse about face. Goodwill and loyalty is at stake. But that's too intangible for some people to appreciate, even though it certainly exists. I don't particularly like Hakuba47 as a resort, but I'll go there at least once this year just to say thank you.

 

frannyo, that's a very nice exposition from the fully tamed consumer. What you're saying is 'there may be demand, from me included, but the supplier is king after all'. Some people read, and take it in, and never think about it at all - most of them in fact. Sad really.

[frannyo 2]

Funny... I was waiting for that response, I'm surprised it took you about an hour to respond. You must have been busy with something else.

 

You are of course 100% right as you always are. As long as you believe that, then that's fine - perhaps you should be in resort management rather than translating work.

 

But I'm sure you get some satisfaction out of it anyway. Well done

[scouser 4]

Your 'informed' (ahem) posts certainly provide entertainment value, Ocean.

 

I wish I lived in your dreamworld - sounds like fun mate.

[Ocean11 0]

Hello-o! Some resorts are actually open. I wonder how they managed it, given the impossibility, the lack of visitors, the this, the that. Who's in the dream world scouser?

 

Still ARAI will be glad to hear that some snowfans don't care if the resorts don't bother opening when the snow is on the ground.

[damian 0]

 Quote:

Originally posted by misia:
I don't think many people go even if open really early. I won't go until December anyway.

Misia, why wouldn't you go if lifts were running and there was enough snow on the ground? Why do you think other people wouldn't go? I think the reasons behind this decision would be quite interesting. It focuses on the psychology of the buyer (skier/boarder), not the seller (resort management).

More on the sell side of the equation:
A good business plans for contingencies, positive and negative. In any market place, in the long run the survivors are the ones adaptable enough to capitalise on positive uncertainty and avoid other losses caused by negative uncertainty, particularly when the market is seasonally driven. This cyclical seasonal pattern that under pins this business nature forces uncertainty to be concentrated in short regular periods, ie winter and the month either side of it. Now, if heavy snow fell in say August one could excuse the sellers for not being prepared to capitalise and the buyers not willing to pay. But given that the uncertainty is predictable in terms of WHEN (ie a month either side of winter), we are only left with the IF element of uncertainty, the other half. Usually commercial ventures are threatened by volatility regarding IF an event will happen and WHEN it will happen, not so the ski resort game. I wish more of my profit opportunities under uncertainty could come with half of the uncertainty already solved, leaving me to appraise the probability of the IF.

[scouser 4]

You seem to misunderstand. I never said no resorts would open? Did I?

 

And out of the 600 or so resorts, how many are open? About 10 at most?? I think I remember seeing the words "some resorts...." in that post including the 'excuses' as you put them.

 

Anyway, I really don't care to be honest Just keep the entertainment coming, I'd hate for you to change

[miteyak 0]

The season starting so early has/could have saved the resorts a stack of money on snow-blowing. They start these activities weeks if not months before the season starts. I think it's unlikely that the resorts, if they had the will, couldn't pull something together at least on weekends. You dont have to open all the restys and all the lifts dont have to be open.

 

Good management? Good economic sense? I dont know about the ski industry, but between golf club promotion, nepotism, and the ol' buddy system, there"s little evidence in my section of the Japanese economy of rational planning, I think I may well be the only economics major in my company (no, of course im not using it). I can only assume that laws outside those Adam Smith promoted are as much in play in the ski industry as where I am.

[damian 0]

I kinda think I have to pitch in with Ocean, however I would qualify my support by saying that it is perfectly ok for some resorts to have not opened yet. They are the ones who don't have the correct business plan to take advantage of some early money on the table. Not all businesses are created equal.

[misia 0]

Why not before December? There is a few reason why. I am very busy with project at work this month, then I must go back home to Okinawa at beginning of December. Also actually my friends don't feel like snowboard right now until all is open and much snow.