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South Koreans 'will be extinct by 2750'. Japan in 1000 years.

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South Koreans will be 'extinct' by 2750 if nothing is done to halt the nation's falling fertility rate, according to a study by The National Assembly Research Service in Seoul.

 

The fertility rate declined to a new low of 1.19 children per woman in 2013, the study showed, well below the fertility rate required to sustain South Korea's current population of 50 million people, the Chosun Ilbo reported.

 

In a simulation, the NARS study suggests that the population will shrink to 40 million in 2056 and 10 million in 2136. The last South Korean, the report indicates, will die in 2750, making it the first national group in the world to become extinct.

 

The simulation is a worst-case scenario and does not consider possible changes in immigration policy, for example.

 

The study, carried out at the request of Yang Seung-jo, a member of the opposition New Politics Alliance for Democracy, underlines the challenges facing a number of nations in the Asia-Pacific region.

Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and increasingly China are all experiencing growing financial pressures caused by rising healthcare costs and pension payments for an elderly population.

The problem is particularly serious in South Korea, where more than 38 per cent of the population is predicted to be of retirement age by 2050, according to the National Statistics Office. The equivalent figure in Japan is an estimated 39.6 per cent by 2050.

According to a 2012 study conducted by Tohoku University, Japan will go extinct in about one thousand years, with the last Japanese child born in 3011.

David Coleman, a population expert at Oxford University, has previously warned that South Korea's fertility rate is so low that it threatens the existence of the nation.

The NARS study suggests that the southern Korean port city of Busan is most at risk, largely because of a sharp decline in the number of young and middle-aged residents, and that the last person will be born in the city in 2413.

 

Don't worry though, it's a 'worst case scenario' apparently. ;)

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The problem is particularly serious in South Korea, where more than 38 per cent of the population is predicted to be of retirement age by 2050, according to the National Statistics Office. The equivalent figure in Japan is an estimated 39.6 per cent by 2050

 

Wouldn't that make the problem worse in Japan then?

 

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1.19 is impressively low. I think Japan's bottomed at about 1.3 and has been going back up for a few years, albeit very slowly. It's still well below the "maintain the population" level, hence the falling population.

 

In Japan it all started in the 1970s, so it goes much deeper than the modern reasons people come up with, mobile phones, herbivore men or whatever.

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The problem is particularly serious in South Korea, where more than 38 per cent of the population is predicted to be of retirement age by 2050, according to the National Statistics Office. The equivalent figure in Japan is an estimated 39.6 per cent by 2050

 

Wouldn't that make the problem worse in Japan then?

 

Yes. Saying "particularly serious" and immediately following it with a worse example is slack.

I guess that would have been corrected by a subeditor for a print newspaper ten years ago, but now news media don't have the revenue and they can't afford the staff.

CNN do not have anyone in Japan. Its all off the wire or freelancers.

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The article is talking about two different things. The main bit is about a low birthrate which if assumed to continue eventually leads to extinction. The secondary bit is about the problem of trying to support old people who require care and welfare with fewer working people, an example of a problem caused by having a low birthrate (but also longer life expectancy and other factors). For the secondary bit, Japan is in a worse situation than SK. But SK has the lower birthrate and hence you can predict its "extinction" sooner.

 

Anyway, it's poor writing to single something out for being "particularly" bad and then immediately give a worse example.

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I knew about the low birth rate and the chance Japanese people would be extinct years ago, didn't know the same was happening ig South Korea. I used to use the chance of becoming extinct in voice class at NOVA. Most of the students didn't believe me, untill I put a series of stick figures up on the white board to show how 20 couples and their descendants who only had one child would eventually end up with one left.

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