polinawer 0 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 The current overheating of the Pacific Ocean is a fact. And that is directly related to the Niño phenomenon. Several degrees over the average temperature leads to "strong" Niño effect. This is what the scientific community are claiming based on figures and measurements. Despite, I've always heard news on the effect it has on the climate in the west coast of America (actually the name comes from the fact that peruvian sailors discovered it during Christmas eve). Doing some research, I've found that it's not only related with significant weather changes on the west coast of America as a regular basis but also to the number of typhoons in the other side of the ocean. Having said that it's been pretty tough to find any info related to this and its side effects on Japan, specially Hokkaido island since I'll make a long trip to get there next year. Recently, I came accross some vague statistics on the average snowfall for Niseko during the last Niño events (I can not recall the years; maybay 2007 was the last one). It could be observed that during these years, the amount of precipitation descends, but nothing significantly. Fingers crossed Link to post Share on other sites
Chriselle 158 Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 During the last big El Nino in the 90's.. salmon stocks along the west coast of Canada were severely affected by non native species of fish preying on juvenile salmon. I remember going out in the boat and not being able to keep the mackerel of the gear. It was right at the time I came over to Japan....time sure flies. Link to post Share on other sites
HoTRoD 2 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 When we, er, know? Link to post Share on other sites
foreversnow 5 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 The stressing about Japans Snowfall has started very early this year . Usually it is not until the first sprinkles of snow on Fuji & Youtei and movement of beetles & Bugs in Hokkaido. For my 2 cents JAPAN SKI SEASON will be awesome as usual El Nino or NO El Nino. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
pie-eater 207 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 It will be Bottomless and you'll be able to Live The Dream*. (* Even if there's not much snow and it's shite!). No need for any stress**. (** Unless you haven't Booked Now yet). Link to post Share on other sites
snowdude 44 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Even a crap snow year in Japan is better than most other countries during their best season. Link to post Share on other sites
Biggen 3 Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 The Japan Meteorological Agency this week forecast a 70 percent chance El Nino will occur, the highest since its last occurrence in 2009, bringing lower temperatures that could continue through autumn. Dai-ichi Life Research Institute economist Toshihiro Nagahama sees a risk that cooler weather could reduce growth by as much as 0.9 percentage point in the third quarter. “We can’t rule out the potential that the El Nino this summer causes unexpected damage to Japan’s economy,” Nagahama said. “This could affect the decision to raise the sales tax from October next year as the growth rate in July-September is critical for that judgment.” Issued on the 14 of May 2014 Link to post Share on other sites
Wizz 11 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 I need to go back and read through 2009 reports. Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Pow 52 Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 From my records at village level in the Niseko Resort Area : 2009 / 10 Season Snowfall Total - 15.8 m (mean for 8 winters 14.3 m) October - 5cm November - 82 cm December - 359 cm January - 590 cm February - 260 cm March - 271 cm April - 13 cm Fingers crossed for a repeat Link to post Share on other sites
Slippery Jim 65 Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 From your keyboard to Ullr's ears, Mike. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
sanjo 2 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 That would be nice. Link to post Share on other sites
oo 1 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 More reports on likelihood if El Niño this year Link to post Share on other sites
gerard 6 Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Maybe a good year to go to Hokkaido. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 The Bureau of Meteorology in Aus has downgraded the likelihood of a strong El Nino now. If El Nino conditions do develop this year they believe they are only likely to be weak. Link to post Share on other sites
Slippery Jim 65 Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 JAMSTEC, a climate research agency, now forecasts ``average'' temps & precip for the Dec/Jan/Feb period. Their research centers on ENSO (the nino/nina shifts). Still, half a year out nobody really knows. Best to book early, just in case. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 We'll have to wait for snowdude to regale us with his amazing powers of weather forecasting. He always gets it exactly right. Although that ice age seems to be a little late... Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Ice Age (5) is down for 2016! Link to post Share on other sites
rick 0 Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 FYI, as we approach the end of September, we are not yet in an El Nino and it remains uncertain whether there will be one this year. I've read odds of 2:1 in favor. Link to post Share on other sites
rick 0 Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 FYI, as we approach the end of September, we are not yet in an El Nino and it remains uncertain whether there will be one this year. I've read odds of 2:1 in favor. For those interested in the technical details: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf I've booked Furano for 9-13 Dec. and am praying for heavy early snow. Link to post Share on other sites
frannyo 2 Posted September 28, 2014 Share Posted September 28, 2014 good luck with the early dec, hope it works out Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts