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Japan winter 2012-2013 weather forecast (provisional)

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My prediction for the winter:   It will gradually get colder from now until December. It will definitely be November before December, that's a cert. It will snow towards the end of the year, proba

I don't think I will actually argue with him anymore. As Mark Twain once said "do not argue with an idiot they drag you down to their level and beat you with experience"

I think that should be a question mark, no?

My prediction for the winter:


It will gradually get colder from now until December. It will definitely be November before December, that's a cert.

It will snow towards the end of the year, probably quite a lot, in the mountainous regions.

Not sure exactly how much.

Though marketing people will claim it's more than actually falls.

People will get itchy come November and start getting moody.

The "Best Snow Ever (in the world)" [book your holidays now while stocks last!!!!!!] will very likely fall in Hakuba and Niseko early in the season. Maybe even tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Some people who only ever come on before/beginning season and talk about these things will come out of the woodwork - with absolutely no agendas of their own of course!! - and then proceed to moan at the SJ dudes if they don't allow them their freedom of advertising/promotion speech thing on here.


Of course, I might be completely wrong!


See, I have been spot on so far.

You just see the rest of it come to be.



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Since I have been here, a fair number of seasons now, we have never had a terrible season when there's been a shortage of snow in the peak season.


There has been late starts though, when it only really got started around New Year and there have been quick appearances of spring in late February and the like.


This is in Niigata prefecture.

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Al Gore and Warren Miller team up to encourage a conversation about climate change







First 'prediction' from Doug Stoop


“Conditions were a disaster in the Western U.S. last season and I expect to see a similar situation in Western Europe and the Eastern U.S. this year,” said professional adventurer and ski guide to WME athletes, Doug Stoup. Stoup leads ski expeditions through Svalbard where he says the landscape has changed dramatically since he started touring there 10 years ago.


..........[insert word of your choice e.g. Bold, Prophetic, Misguided, Stupid] prediction to be making in September.


Especially as Western Europe has already seen snow. Unless he's referring to the Azores.

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It's why one should get their science form the scientists Mike ;)

I certainly don't look for scientific information from ex polititians and ski guides! Obviously these guys aren't appealling to those who know anything about the science. They are appealling to the majority of people out there who wouldn't know the first thing about climate science. Fighting the sort of mind numbing crap that people like snowdude peddle. It's all a sideshow related to the politics not the science..

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Is there ever a year when Japan struggles for snow?


Good year and bad year are all relative.


Jan/Feb 2009 was the obvious bad one in recent memory across Honshu. Lots of rain and bald spots on lower slopes.


I wasn't in Nagano at the time, but the year of Olympics was supposed to be pretty bad.

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JMA have brought out their winter forecast and at least currently they appear to mostly agree with snowdude's forecast. Northern areas of Honshu and Hokkaido are expected to have close to average temps and close to average snowfall (which is an awesome amount of snow). Southern and central areas have a higher probability of higher temps and lower than average snowfall. Still a long way out though and I doubt much more accurate than snowdude's forecast.





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Traditionally in an "El Nino" year Tokyo gets a lot more snow than normal, so one can assume that some of the more southern lying ski resorts in Gunma and Tochigi will probably have some good dumps as well. The last genuine "El Nino" winter was back when they held the Nagano Olympics (1998), so if people are worried about snowfall for this coming winter I would check the winter of 1998 for an idea of what to expect at your local ski resort.


It is always difficult to predict snowfall, but I will go out on a limb and say that the season will start early this year with some good dumps in late November and early December. I believe this will happen due to the Japan Sea being a bit warmer this year (due to the long hot summer) and its warm water mixing with the cold air from Siberia which will produce a lot of moisture and snow clouds.


Of course this moisture may just end up being rain, but I remain optimistic at this juncture.


I want to stress that I am not a meteorologist and that I am merely guessing, though my first paragraph is all fact and not opinion.

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