7-11 2 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 snowdude, which will get more snow, Hakuba or Niseko? And if you know, which is better? Link to post Share on other sites
veronica 2 Posted September 18, 2012 Share Posted September 18, 2012 I am just hoping that the hot summer = snowy winter is true. It means we'll be in for a bumper. Link to post Share on other sites
RisingBridge 0 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Friend sent on this link to me and I'm hooked Updates please! Link to post Share on other sites
yamayamayama 2 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Come on snowdude, we're waiting! Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Whilst we're waiting let's ponder the following Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted September 24, 2012 Share Posted September 24, 2012 Am I missing something? Link to post Share on other sites
pie-eater 207 Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 My prediction for the winter: It will gradually get colder from now until December. It will definitely be November before December, that's a cert. It will snow towards the end of the year, probably quite a lot, in the mountainous regions. Not sure exactly how much. Though marketing people will claim it's more than actually falls. People will get itchy come November and start getting moody. The "Best Snow Ever (in the world)" [book your holidays now while stocks last!!!!!!] will very likely fall in Hakuba and Niseko early in the season. Maybe even tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Some people who only ever come on before/beginning season and talk about these things will come out of the woodwork - with absolutely no agendas of their own of course!! - and then proceed to moan at the SJ dudes if they don't allow them their freedom of advertising/promotion speech thing on here. Of course, I might be completely wrong! See, I have been spot on so far. You just see the rest of it come to be. Link to post Share on other sites
miller 1 Posted September 25, 2012 Share Posted September 25, 2012 Great work pie-eater. Link to post Share on other sites
blaster 0 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Is there ever a year when Japan struggles for snow? Link to post Share on other sites
Chriselle 158 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Oh ya...there have been some WTF no snow years. I've never seen a completely bust season but definitely some poor ones. Link to post Share on other sites
muikabochi 208 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Since I have been here, a fair number of seasons now, we have never had a terrible season when there's been a shortage of snow in the peak season. There has been late starts though, when it only really got started around New Year and there have been quick appearances of spring in late February and the like. This is in Niigata prefecture. Link to post Share on other sites
gerard 6 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 News last night said this year would be warm with fronts sweeping along the pacific side. Because of La Ninyo or ninya or whatever... Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Entering an El Nino phase after a couple of back to back La Nina phases. Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Pow 52 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Is there ever a year when Japan struggles for snow? Not in the 6 winters I've been on Hokkaido. Most and most consistent snow I've experienced. Link to post Share on other sites
Mike Pow 52 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 Al Gore and Warren Miller team up to encourage a conversation about climate change http://www.skinet.com/ski/article/warren-miller-and-al-gore-team?lnk=rss&loc=homepage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=pulsenews http://climaterealityproject.org/ First 'prediction' from Doug Stoop “Conditions were a disaster in the Western U.S. last season and I expect to see a similar situation in Western Europe and the Eastern U.S. this year,” said professional adventurer and ski guide to WME athletes, Doug Stoup. Stoup leads ski expeditions through Svalbard where he says the landscape has changed dramatically since he started touring there 10 years ago. ..........[insert word of your choice e.g. Bold, Prophetic, Misguided, Stupid] prediction to be making in September. Especially as Western Europe has already seen snow. Unless he's referring to the Azores. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 It's why one should get their science form the scientists Mike I certainly don't look for scientific information from ex polititians and ski guides! Obviously these guys aren't appealling to those who know anything about the science. They are appealling to the majority of people out there who wouldn't know the first thing about climate science. Fighting the sort of mind numbing crap that people like snowdude peddle. It's all a sideshow related to the politics not the science.. Link to post Share on other sites
gerard 6 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Entering an El Nino phase after a couple of back to back La Nina phases. That spells a warm winter (after two awesome winters). Might be time for another trip to Hokkaido. They seem to do OK during El Nino. Link to post Share on other sites
BagOfCrisps 24 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 Link to post Share on other sites
merryJim 1 Posted September 27, 2012 Share Posted September 27, 2012 snowdude - when's your update due? Link to post Share on other sites
NoFakie 45 Posted September 28, 2012 Share Posted September 28, 2012 Is there ever a year when Japan struggles for snow? Good year and bad year are all relative. Jan/Feb 2009 was the obvious bad one in recent memory across Honshu. Lots of rain and bald spots on lower slopes. I wasn't in Nagano at the time, but the year of Olympics was supposed to be pretty bad. Link to post Share on other sites
snowdude 44 Posted September 28, 2012 Author Share Posted September 28, 2012 Well my original forecast still stands as nature is still telling me to expect a warmer and less snowy than average winter. Although Hokkaido and far northern areas will fair better. Link to post Share on other sites
Go Native 70 Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 JMA have brought out their winter forecast and at least currently they appear to mostly agree with snowdude's forecast. Northern areas of Honshu and Hokkaido are expected to have close to average temps and close to average snowfall (which is an awesome amount of snow). Southern and central areas have a higher probability of higher temps and lower than average snowfall. Still a long way out though and I doubt much more accurate than snowdude's forecast. Link to post Share on other sites
Hokkaidough 4 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 We don't want to hear that. We want it BLUE! Link to post Share on other sites
beowulf 1 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Traditionally in an "El Nino" year Tokyo gets a lot more snow than normal, so one can assume that some of the more southern lying ski resorts in Gunma and Tochigi will probably have some good dumps as well. The last genuine "El Nino" winter was back when they held the Nagano Olympics (1998), so if people are worried about snowfall for this coming winter I would check the winter of 1998 for an idea of what to expect at your local ski resort. It is always difficult to predict snowfall, but I will go out on a limb and say that the season will start early this year with some good dumps in late November and early December. I believe this will happen due to the Japan Sea being a bit warmer this year (due to the long hot summer) and its warm water mixing with the cold air from Siberia which will produce a lot of moisture and snow clouds. Of course this moisture may just end up being rain, but I remain optimistic at this juncture. I want to stress that I am not a meteorologist and that I am merely guessing, though my first paragraph is all fact and not opinion. Link to post Share on other sites
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