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I know its early but so is my trip arriving in Tokyo 21 December with plans to be at Shiga from 23 Dec and Myoko from 28 dec returning to Shiga 1 Jan leaving 6 Jan. Trouble is my kids are in the Aussie Military and this was the only time we could all have off.

 

Looking at some reports saying lower than average early snow, when would it be the time to cut my losses and switch to Hokkaido where there seems to be more snow.

 

What are the best early starters this season on indicators so far, Furano seems to have some snow as does Niseko but been there to often, how are the resorts like Rusutsu and Tommamu looking.

 

Am I just being totally paranoid and will it dump soon at Myoko and Shiga ?

 

ASB

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Why do you make these plans if you are so worried about these things and have access to previous years reports etc.

How many times have people said that December is a risk?

 

Sorry, that wasn't helpful.... but come on!

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still a while to go, I'd hang in there just now. Presumably you can cancel anytime if you are even thinking about switching to Hokkaido so why not wait until a lot closer to the time and then change up. I was at Shiga at New Year 2 years ago and it dumped.....wasn't a lot of snow before going and I was worried but actually when we got there I saw that the coverage was all over....then it dumped for 4 days! :D

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I guess if its marginal we can buy a rail pass for seven days then head to the mountains, either way we will have a great holiday. I was at Shiga on 4 Jan this year and it was fine and looking at the records, the odds are deffinatly in our favour.

 

Personally I would have made our trip late January but the kids (well using that term losely) can only get the period over Xmas new years off.

 

Next season I will come in Jan by myself for the better conditions.

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But, folks, I thought 'it's started' and we were already bottomless etc.

Damn, that not the case?! :(

 

New Year always seems to come through big time, but Christmas is touch and go. Shiga Kogen is high up so has as good a chance as any in the region.

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I guess if its marginal we can buy a rail pass for seven days then head to the mountains, either way we will have a great holiday. I was at Shiga on 4 Jan this year and it was fine and looking at the records, the odds are deffinatly in our favour.

 

Personally I would have made our trip late January but the kids (well using that term losely) can only get the period over Xmas new years off.

 

Next season I will come in Jan by myself for the better conditions.

 

you CAN buy a rail pass, but you might find its cheaper to get a flight when you are here..........or actually to drive up and see if yo can change your return flight.

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Both last year and the year before started much the same way from memory. Just had a look at the archives in the daily reports section and sure enough very little snow before the 15th. Give it another few weeks I reckon. I'm going to keep to the plan of getting up there around the 26th and won't change plans until the 20th.

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Although, where you are headed is nowhere near where I live I would say you will have no problems with snow on the ground. The season has started early (normally) for the first time in two years and it looks like it is going to be a good one.

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The season has started early (normally) for the first time in two years....

 

Hate to be picky, but what does that mean?

Where?

 

....and it looks like it is going to be a good one.

 

Does that really mean anythig?

Are are you just hoping that it will be a good one, like we all are?

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Hate to be picky, but what does that mean?

Where?

 

Rereading my post I can see how I did not say much. I was in a rush and in a good mood, so I did not explain my position very well. I am still in a good mood, yet have more time to expound and a chance to also put a dampener on on any high hopes for an amazing early season.

 

I am in Yamagata and nowhere near where he is going and I want to stress I am basing my opinions on my experience in Yamagata.

 

Anyway, for the first time in two seasons we had a pre-opening at one of my local resorts, which stands at an altitude of 700m. Of course there was only about 30cm of snow (it did close again on Tuesday), but compared to the two previous seasons where we had nothing until mid December I am willing to say that this season is going to happen early. Obviously an early season does not mean chest-high powder, but certainly enough to slide the board and have a bit of fun. Also where I live we are looking at some snow fall on Monday and more snowfall during the week, so I am optimistic.

 

Even the Japan Meteorological Agency seems to think this year is going to be colder than normal in December with normal levels of snowfall.

 

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/longfcst/000_2_00.html

 

Last year the meteorological agency did get January wrong, but were pretty accurate with December (certainly in Yamagata) predicting low snowfall . When La Nina kicked in it threw a cat amongst the pigeons and upset a lot of their predictions, but they say it is back again this year and with their data from last season I think they will be a lot more accurate with their predictions this season, which look favourable.

 

The last couple of seasons have started really slowly up here and I am just happy to see snow on the mountains.

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In my experience, it means nothing.

You can have an early snowfall and then a completely dry December.

Or the other way round.

We simply do not know yet.

 

Zao opened. And then closed. I can't see it opening up again in the next week, or if they do it will be extremely limited.

Basically, winter hasn't arrived properly yet.

 

I have the luxury of living close by and so I just relax and see what falls from the sky.

I'd hate to be all worked up getting all stressed up about it.

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