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But TJ told us that winter was here a few weeks ago, and didn't say anything about it not being here since, and I always believe him.  

Very wintery here in Mooloolaba Qld as I just got home from a night on the pus with my workmates and got the severe cold shoulder from my be-loved hic!

No probs Tubby. Fwiw, I also take issue with folks calling all snow "powder", but that old chestnut can wait till another day.   The sun's trying to break through at the moment in Hakuba so you can

Snowdude.....got a time frame on that.. "very soon" ice age? ;)

 

 

Yes in about 2 years!

 

The next year or so will still see these up and down weather conditions with lots of extreme events that we have had of recent years due to the unstable magnetic field and the reversing of the magnetic poles, but once they settle the world should see a more stable colder climate in the northern hemisphere.

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It is worth noting that many of the natural forcings on climate are currently lining up on the cooling side. Things like the sun as snowdude points out and others like a number of periodical oscilations in climate cycles like ENSO, PDO and NAO. All are currently in what would be considered a cool phase. There is definitely a chance temps may cool a bit or at least not warm as much for the next decade or so. We'll have to wait and see. Most of the climate models are predicting relatively little or certainly reduced warming up until around 2030 when it is expected to really take off again. None though are predicting major falls in temps into ice age territory.

 

 

And who was it just a few months ago telling me that data from scientists was pointing to a large warming of the planet not cooling! Bashing me saying my prediction for the earth cooling was rubbish?

 

Now you are picking up articles stating that the earth will most probably cool! Very interesting!

 

I am sure I said it would cool a year or more ago, before any of these so called scientists had even hinted that it might, they were all saying it would most definately warm up, now they are saying it will cool. So which is it? At least I stick to what I believe.

 

Super computers can't tell you anything, they can predict things / events based on previous information entered into them, but that is no use, they need to be looking at what the sun is doing now, not what it might have been doing 10 million years ago.

 

The scientists are also trying to make chemicals to reduce the already local Co2 levels, that will be great, they will kill everyone.

Co2 levels now are actually much lower than they used to be, years before humans were here! But the scientists know best!

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As usual you shoud just stay well away from discussing the science snowdude. You don't know anything about it. The models have been predicting a reduction in the rate of warming between now and approximately 2030 for quite some time as they do take into account many factors other than just CO2. The slow down in warming has been completely expected and predicted by the science. It hasn't shown any real signs of cooling down as yet though and this year is looking to be within the top 10 warmest years on record. Most of the rest of the top 10 have fallen within the 2000's. If this is cooling down I'm still not really seeing it! When I said above that there is a chance that it may cool a bit I probably should have said that it's not overly likely and it won't last long. Certainly not long enough or low enough to tip us over into an ice age. Where do you come up with this stuff? Care to share your sources? Importantly as I state above most of the natural forcings on climate suggest we should be cooling pretty rapidly currently. The fact we don't really seem to be suggests that the warming forcing of increased concentrations of CO2 is quite strong and basically masking the natural forcings. Still if we do enter something like a Maunder Minimum again we would definitely expect at least a 'little ice age' if the sun truly is the main driving force of our climate currently. If we don't get it then maybe even you'll have to get over your denialism of the AGW science snowdude.

And C02 levels have been higher in the past? Yes they have been but how long ago were they as high as they are now and just how warm was the climate then?

 

And you show a complete lack of understanding of how the climate models work. There are numerous global climate models recognised and used by the science, all of which differ slightly but the thing they all have in common is that they have been found to be pretty good at hindcasting which is essential if they are to be used for forecasting. You have actual historical data you put into the models say from 1900. You put in as much data as you can and then run the forecast say to 2000 and then see how well the model does against the actual temperature record. If it does pretty well then you have a reasonable amount of confidence that it will do pretty well at forecasting from now. It's not an exact science that's for sure but it's hardly a stab in the dark either.

 

The magnetic field is not showing any signs of imminent reversal. You do realise don't you that just because we are coming up to around the average time period between a reversal doesn't mean it's actually going to happen anytime soon? In the past reversals have occurred within 50,000 years and there been periods when there hasn't been one for more than 10 million years. Sure you can work out an average of all reversals throughout the history of the world but it's basically meaningless in determining when the next one will occur. Could be within a couple of years but it could just as easily not be for another couple of million years or more. Plus I'm still interested in what evidence you believe there is that magnetic reversals affect climate. Again sources?

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Bloody hecks peeps, it's sunny and blue skies in Minamiuonuma, innit?!

 

Yes the sun is out and blue skies here now! :doh:

Snow is supposed to be coming, honest!

I see Kagura are expanding things for the weekend as per Naeba Now report today.

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Kagura cam is showing snowfall......good to see snow down to the Road area in Hakuba, even if it is a dusting. I hope by 6pm the Japan Alps have been smothered in white powdery stuff :clap:

 

There's not tons, about 10-15cm at our place, but more than a dusting for sure. Everything looks wintery now. 47 said 20-30cm at the top.

 

Given that it hit 11C yesterday morning, its more than I suspected. I guess we're only just over the "cold enough" line but that'll do for the time being. More please!

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